Cummins Inc (CMI) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $93.2B
Cummins Inc
CMI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $352.14 to $352.88 (+0.2%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price −2.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($540.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($202.25 to $540.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $169.73 – $727.59 · fair‑value band $202.25 – $540.83 · the $643.98 price screens above the $352.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Cummins Inc (CMI) currently trades at $643.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $352.88, implying the stock looks roughly 45.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Cummins Inc generated revenue of $33.9B at a net margin of 7.9%. Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.0%. Net debt stands at $5.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $202.25 (bear case) to $540.83 (bull case); at $643.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 113% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -45%, CMI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($384.04) versus Asset-Based ($59.96). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cummins Inc. offers various power solutions worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and Accelera. It offers diesel and natural gas-powered engines; and drivetrain systems, including axles, drivelines, brakes, and suspension systems; and on- and off-highway, and other products.
Full company description
Cummins Inc. offers various power solutions worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and Accelera. It offers diesel and natural gas-powered engines; and drivetrain systems, including axles, drivelines, brakes, and suspension systems; and on- and off-highway, and other products. The company also provides aftertreatment technology and solutions comprising custom engineering systems and integrated controls, oxidation catalysts, particulate filters, and selective catalytic reduction systems, as well as engineered components, including dosers; turbochargers, fuel systems, and valvetrain technologies; electronic control modules, sensors, and supporting software; and automated manual transmissions, and automatic transmissions for internal combustion engines. In addition, it sells and offers support services power generation systems, high-horsepower engines, and heavy-duty and medium-duty engines; offers application engineering services, custom-designed assemblies, and in-shop and field-based repair services; and retail and wholesale aftermarket parts. Further, the company offers standby and prime power generators, controls, paralleling systems, and transfer switches; turnkey solutions for distributed generation and energy management applications using natural gas, diesel, battery energy storage systems, and newer alternative sustainable fuels; diesel and natural gas high-speed, high-horsepower engines; and A/C generator/alternator products. Additionally, it provides electrified power systems, including batteries, fuel cells, and electric powertrain technologies. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, dealers, and other customers. The company was formerly known as Cummins Engine Company and changed its name to Cummins Inc. in 2001. Cummins Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Columbus, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cummins Inc reported revenue of $33.7B in FY2025 versus $24.0B in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.8B in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.
CMI screens 45% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Cummins (CMI) Q2 Earnings on the Horizon: Analysts' Insights on Key Performance Measures
- Cummins Slows Its 2027 Engine Rollout as EPA Rewrites the Rulebook
- Cummins Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
- Cummins (CMI) Could Be 14% Undervalued As Power Demand Supports The Bull Case
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 807 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €967.60 | €212.97 | -78% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €284.30 | €122.46 | -57% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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