Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $79.4B

A solid business, but screening 50% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($232.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• A fairly wide model range ($92.76 to $232.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $160.02 – $297.32 · fair‑value band $92.76 – $232.34 · the $294.70 price screens above the $148.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) currently trades at $294.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $148.68, implying the stock looks roughly 49.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Illinois Tool Works Inc generated revenue of $16.2B at a net margin of 19.3%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 96.9%. Net debt stands at $8.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $92.76 (bear case) to $232.34 (bull case); at $294.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -50%, ITW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($171.14) versus Asset-Based ($7.51). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Illinois Tool Works Inc. provides industrial products and equipment in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and South America. It operates through seven segments: Automotive OEM; Food Equipment; Test & Measurement and Electronics; Welding; Polymers & Fluids; Construction Products; and Specialty Products.

Full company description

Illinois Tool Works Inc. provides industrial products and equipment in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and South America. It operates through seven segments: Automotive OEM; Food Equipment; Test & Measurement and Electronics; Welding; Polymers & Fluids; Construction Products; and Specialty Products. The Automotive OEM segment offers plastic and metal components, fasteners, and assemblies for automobiles, light trucks, and other industrial uses. The Food Equipment segment provides warewashing, cooking, refrigeration, and food processing equipment; kitchen exhaust, ventilation, and pollution control systems; and food equipment maintenance and repair services. The Test & Measurement and Electronics segment produce and sells test and measurement; and electronic manufacturing and maintenance, repair, and operations solutions. The Welding segment produces arc welding equipment, and metal arc welding consumables and related accessories. The Polymers & Fluids segment produces adhesives, sealants, lubrication and cutting fluids, and fluids and polymers for auto aftermarket maintenance and appearance. The Construction Products segment offers engineered fastening systems and solutions for the residential construction, renovation/remodel, and commercial construction markets. The Specialty Products segment provides beverage packaging equipment and consumables, product coding and marking equipment and consumables, and appliance components and fasteners. The company serves automotive OEM and aftermarket, commercial food equipment, construction, general industrial, industrial capital goods, consumer durables, and other markets, as well as MRO markets. It distributes its products directly to industrial manufacturers, as well as through independent distributors. Illinois Tool Works Inc. was founded in 1912 and is based in Glenview, Illinois.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Illinois Tool Works Inc reported revenue of $16.0B in FY2025 versus $14.5B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $3.1B in FY2025, compounding +3.3%/yr from FY2021.

ITW screens 50% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 807 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 44/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.