Saudi Chemical Company (2230) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Saudi Chemical Company SAR 7.73, price SAR 7.34, upside +5.3%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.83 SAR – 11.83 SAR · fair‑value band 5.48 SAR – 9.98 SAR · the 7.34 SAR price screens below the 7.73 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Saudi Chemical Holding Company engages in the manufacture, distribution, and retail of medicines, medical materials and syrups, pharmaceutical preparations, medical and surgical tools and equipment, supplies of hospitals and medical centers and its related spare parts, and food products.
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Saudi Chemical Holding Company engages in the manufacture, distribution, and retail of medicines, medical materials and syrups, pharmaceutical preparations, medical and surgical tools and equipment, supplies of hospitals and medical centers and its related spare parts, and food products. The company operates through three segments: Explosives; Medicine and Medical Supplies; and Production of Ammonium Nitrate. It also manufactures and sells explosives and related products for civilian and military use; provides technical support services in explosions; and the manufacture of ammonium nitrate. In addition, the company engages in the wholesale and retail trade of cosmetics, perfumes, beauty soups, and other supplies; and packaging and storing of medicines and other medical products. Further, it manages, invests funds, and owning real estate; provides loans and guarantees, and financing, as well as owning industrial rights. It operates in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Saudi Chemical Company (2230) currently trades at 7.34 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.73 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 5.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 9.33 SAR per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the 7.34 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1.89 SAR, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 5.48 SAR (bear) to 9.98 SAR (bull), the price of 7.34 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Saudi Chemical Company reported revenue of 6.9B SAR in FY2025 versus 3.4B SAR in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was 335M SAR in FY2025, compounding +48.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.9B SAR (≈ $1.8B) · P/E ratio 18.4 · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) 0.4000 SAR · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 14.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at 5%, 2230 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 5.48 SARFair Value 7.73 SARBull 9.98 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2203 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+42.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+40.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.37% vs 2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 7%
2025 sits 84% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 630 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Chemical Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2230
Frequently asked questions
Is Saudi Chemical Company (2230) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.73 SAR versus a price of 7.34 SAR, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 2230?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Chemical Company is 7.73 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 7.34 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2230?
Saudi Chemical Company has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.73 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.48 SAR, optimistic scenario 9.98 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Chemical Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.73 SAR, about +5% upside versus a price of 7.34 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 5.48 SAR, optimistic scenario 9.98 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
Saudi Chemical Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.0B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Saudi Chemical Company pay a dividend?
Saudi Chemical Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saudi Chemical Company would have to grow free cash flow by +6.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2230 use?
Our models discount Saudi Chemical Company at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saudi Chemical Company that is +6.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saudi Chemical Company (2230) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saudi Chemical Company grew +15.8 % a year. The price currently implies +6.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saudi Chemical Company (2230) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saudi Chemical Company (+6.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.27 %: that much free cash flow Saudi Chemical Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Chemical Company it is 7.73 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 7.34 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Chemical Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2230 trades below its calculated fair value: price 7.34 SAR, fair value 7.73 SAR, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2230?
No. The price is what the market pays today (7.34 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.73 SAR). For Saudi Chemical Company the two are 0.3900 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Chemical Company worth?
The market values Saudi Chemical Company at about 6.9B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 7.34 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 7.73 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2230?
Our models span a range for Saudi Chemical Company: cautious scenario 5.48 SAR, base 7.73 SAR, optimistic 9.98 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 7.34 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2230?
Saudi Chemical Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 7.73 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Chemical Company (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.7%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2230 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Chemical Company trades at 7.34 SAR, about 17% below its 52-week high of 8.86 SAR and 19% above the low of 6.15 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.73 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Chemical Company?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Chemical Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 7.34 SAR, calculated fair value 7.73 SAR (+5%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2230 calculated?
We run Saudi Chemical Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.73 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Chemical Company currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 7.34 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 7.73 SAR, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Chemical Company right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (5.48 SAR to 9.98 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Saudi Chemical Company (2230) come from?
Earnings per share at Saudi Chemical Company grew −1.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.8 %, EBIT margin −5.5 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Saudi Chemical Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Chemical Company is 6.9B SAR (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Chemical Company is 0.89 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Chemical Company are 0.4000 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
The dividend yield of Saudi Chemical Company is 1.4% (payout 25.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
The net margin of Saudi Chemical Company is 4.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Chemical Company is 14.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Chemical Company is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
The operating margin of Saudi Chemical Company is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
Revenue at Saudi Chemical Company is growing +5.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Chemical Company (2230)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Chemical Company are growing +5.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saudi Chemical Company (2230) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Chemical Company is 1.1B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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