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Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$576M (≈ $73.4M) · ISIN CNE100002FH5

What is Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd really worth?

LX Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd 2281 · HK
PriceHK$0.5900
Fair ValueHK$2.57
Upside+335.6%
Quality54/100

A solid business, trading 77% below our fair value of HK$2.57.

As of Aug 19, 2026, the fair value of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is HK$2.57 per share against a price of HK$0.5900, so the fair value sits 336% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (8/13)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.8% net margin
!Narrow moat 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 15 out of 100

For context

·6.78% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$1.93 – HK$3.21

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 18 days ago

Share price −9.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.93). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.8990 HK$0.4625 Fair Value HK$2.57 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.4625 – HK$0.8990 · fair‑value band HK$1.93 – HK$3.21 · the HK$0.5900 price screens below the HK$2.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281) currently trades at HK$0.5900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.57, implying the stock looks roughly 77.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$2.40 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.5900 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.4600, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.2B at a net margin of 8.8%. Revenue declined 12.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. Net debt stands at HK$1.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.93 (bear case) to HK$3.21 (bull case); at HK$0.5900, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 336%, 2281 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0273 per share. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$2.12 HK$2.97 HK$4.24 81
Growth DCF HK$2.19 HK$2.99 HK$4.11 79
Owner Earnings HK$1.28 HK$1.88 HK$2.78 76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$2.12 HK$2.97 HK$4.24 81
Owner Earnings HK$1.28 HK$1.88 HK$2.78 76
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.34 HK$2.06 HK$3.02 72
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.78 HK$4.53 HK$6.69 74
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.32 HK$2.03 HK$2.81 71
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.62 HK$2.26 HK$2.98 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.47 HK$3.77 HK$5.26 68
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.65 HK$2.25 HK$2.85 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.8800 HK$1.64 HK$2.04 66
EPV HK$0.3100 HK$0.4600 HK$0.5900 73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.18 HK$1.51 HK$1.82 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.18 HK$1.54 HK$1.92 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.76 HK$2.34 HK$2.93 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.66 HK$2.21 HK$2.76 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.66 HK$2.21 HK$2.76 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.27 HK$1.96 HK$2.64 65
EV/EBITDA HK$3.90 HK$5.46 HK$7.02 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.8800 HK$1.59 HK$2.31 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.79 HK$2.40 HK$3.58 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.19 HK$2.99 HK$4.11 79
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.34 HK$2.12 HK$3.05 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.51 HK$2.46 HK$2.06 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.3100 HK$0.4600 HK$0.5900 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.26 HK$1.80 HK$2.34 67

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$2.40) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.4600). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 4.5 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 0.39 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0800 price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.5
Dividend yield 6.8% payout 50.0%
Net margin 8.8% FY2025
Return on equity 3.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 18.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$1.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −12.9% 3y avg −3.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −66.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$287M FY2025
Net debt HK$1.6B FY2025 · ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 80
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group) Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated municipal water service provider in the People's Republic of China. The company operates in two segments, Tap Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment.

Full company description

Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group) Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated municipal water service provider in the People's Republic of China. The company operates in two segments, Tap Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment. It is involved in the water supply and wastewater treatment; construction; software development and sale; and pipeline installation activities. The company owns and operates twelve tap water plants with a daily supply capacity of approximately 774,000 tons; eight urban wastewater treatment plants with a daily treatment capacity of approximately 533,000 tons; two industrial park wastewater treatment plants; four entrusted wastewater treatment plants; and 292 township and rural sewage treatment plants with a daily treatment capacity of 665,100 tons. It serves urban and rural residents, industrial and commercial users, local governments, and other institutions. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Luzhou, the People's Republic of China. Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group) Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Luzhou City Xinglu Assets Management Co Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was 109M CNY in FY2025, compounding −18.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.2B
Latest YoY
−7.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (12Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−7.5% · in HKD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−14.3%
Dividend yield6.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −14.3% vs 10Y −1.2%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25.2% (2020) → 12.4% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop47% (2025) · in HKD
Revenue −2.5%/yr
FY21 1.4B CNY
FY22 1.4B CNY
FY23 1.3B CNY
FY24 1.3B CNY
FY25 1.2B CNY
Net income −18.0%/yr
FY21 242M CNY
FY22 203M CNY
FY23 210M CNY
FY24 177M CNY
FY25 109M CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +2.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.3 %

of which total revenue +5.5 % · buybacks/dilution −1.1 %

EBIT margin −2.8 %
Tax rate −0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$2.57 +77%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2281.HK

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Below median
Revenue growth −13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.42× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.19× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.47× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE0 · sector 28
PAST15 · sector 31
HEALTH79 · sector 65
DIVIDEND100 · sector 53

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
American Water Works Company AWK $138.30 $65.80 −52%
SBS SBS $4.82 $8.13 +69%
Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG $41.10 $21.81 −47%
Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 HK$8.82 HK$12.82 +45%
Grandblue Environment Co 600323 ¥29.61 ¥33.29 +12%
American States Water Company AWR $89.88 $47.94 −47%
Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 ¥7.35 ¥9.09 +24%
California Water Service Group CWT $50.48 $33.56 −34%
Chongqing Water Group 601158 ¥4.14 ¥2.77 −33%
Beijing Enterprises Water Group 0371 HK$1.74 HK$3.00 +73%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.57 versus a price of HK$0.5900, about +336% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2281?
Our model-based fair value for Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is HK$2.57 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.5900.
What is the quality score of 2281?
Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.57 (as of Aug 19, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.93, optimistic scenario HK$3.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.57, about +336% upside versus a price of HK$0.5900 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.93, optimistic scenario HK$3.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2281?
The net profit margin of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is about 8.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.78% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 19, 2026).
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