Arabian Drilling Company (2381) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · SA · Market cap 7.2B SAR
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 11.09 SAR to 22.18 SAR (+100.0%) since Jul 31, 2026. Share price −2.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 75% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (45.30 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (21.70 SAR to 45.30 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
45‑month range 72.40 SAR – 200.36 SAR · fair‑value band 21.70 SAR – 45.30 SAR · the 87.05 SAR price screens above the 22.18 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Arabian Drilling Company (2381) currently trades at 87.05 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.18 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 74.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Arabian Drilling Company generated revenue of 3.3B SAR at a net margin of -4.3%. Revenue declined 9.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.4%. Net debt stands at 2.4B SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 21.70 SAR (bear case) to 45.30 SAR (bull case); at 87.05 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -75%, 2381 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (43.26 SAR) versus Growth DCF (4.55 SAR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Arabian Drilling Company operates as an onshore and offshore gas and oil rig drilling company in Saudi Arabia. The company's services include the supply of drilling services in shallow and deep waters and on land for the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, as well as well intervention and testing, rig move, mobilisation, manpower, and other …
Full company description
Arabian Drilling Company operates as an onshore and offshore gas and oil rig drilling company in Saudi Arabia. The company's services include the supply of drilling services in shallow and deep waters and on land for the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, as well as well intervention and testing, rig move, mobilisation, manpower, and other services. Arabian Drilling Company was founded in 1964 and is based in Al Khobar, Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arabian Drilling Company reported revenue of 3.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 2.2B SAR in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was −75.3M SAR in FY2025.
2381 screens 75% overvalued. Compare with Noble Corporation →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Drilling · 31 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Corporation NE | $44.08 | $23.09 | -48% |
| Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation 600871 | ¥2.22 | ¥0.4900 | -78% |
| Transocean Ltd RIG | $5.70 | $2.16 | -62% |
| Valaris Limited VAL | $85.21 | $58.91 | -31% |
| Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc PTEN | $11.06 | $12.20 | +10% |
| Helmerich & Payne, Inc HP | $42.97 | $9.25 | -78% |
| Seadrill Limited SDRL | $46.72 | $10.17 | -78% |
| Borr Drilling Limited BORR | kr 36.50 | kr 27.01 | -26% |
| Nabors Industries Ltd NBR | $89.70 | $209.14 | +133% |
| Sable Offshore Corp SOC | $4.38 | $1.87 | -57% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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