Arabian Drilling Company (2381) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Arabian Drilling Company SAR 40.02, price SAR 96.25, upside -58.4%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
47‑month range 72.40 SAR – 200.36 SAR · fair‑value band 31.42 SAR – 56.32 SAR · the 96.25 SAR price screens above the 40.02 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Arabian Drilling Company operates as an onshore and offshore gas and oil rig drilling company in Saudi Arabia.
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Arabian Drilling Company operates as an onshore and offshore gas and oil rig drilling company in Saudi Arabia. The company's services include the supply of drilling services in shallow and deep waters and on land for the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, as well as well intervention and testing, rig move, mobilisation, manpower, and other services. Arabian Drilling Company was founded in 1964 and is based in Al Khobar, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Arabian Drilling Company (2381) currently trades at 96.25 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 40.02 SAR, 58.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 43.26 SAR per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the 96.25 SAR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 15.42 SAR, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 31.42 SAR (bear) to 56.32 SAR (bull), the price of 96.25 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Arabian Drilling Company reported revenue of 3.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 2.2B SAR in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was −75.3M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 8.6B SAR (≈ $2.3B) · P/S ratio 2.15 · EPS (TTM) −1.61 SAR · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin −2.2% · Return on equity −2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% · Operating margin 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −58%, 2381 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (1.03 SAR to 61.38 SAR). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 31.42 SARFair Value 40.02 SARBull 56.32 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
’18
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.3% (2020) → 7.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.8% a year for the price and +8.2% for the forecasts.
Compare Arabian Drilling Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Drilling · 33 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Below median
Fair Value upside−58.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−4.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.40× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.68× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF14.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.4× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 80
DIVIDEND (yield)33· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arabian Drilling Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2381
Frequently asked questions
Is Arabian Drilling Company (2381) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 40.02 SAR versus a price of 96.25 SAR, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2381?
Our model-based fair value for Arabian Drilling Company is 40.02 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 96.25 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2381?
Arabian Drilling Company has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 40.02 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 31.42 SAR, optimistic scenario 56.32 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arabian Drilling Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 40.02 SAR, about −58% upside versus a price of 96.25 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 31.42 SAR, optimistic scenario 56.32 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
Arabian Drilling Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Arabian Drilling Company pay a dividend?
Arabian Drilling Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arabian Drilling Company would have to grow free cash flow by +35.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2381 use?
Our models discount Arabian Drilling Company at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arabian Drilling Company that is +35.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arabian Drilling Company (2381) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arabian Drilling Company grew +6.3 % a year. The price currently implies +35.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arabian Drilling Company (2381) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arabian Drilling Company (+35.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.90 %: that much free cash flow Arabian Drilling Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arabian Drilling Company it is 40.02 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 96.25 SAR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arabian Drilling Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2381 trades above its calculated fair value: price 96.25 SAR, fair value 40.02 SAR, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2381?
No. The price is what the market pays today (96.25 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (40.02 SAR). For Arabian Drilling Company the two are 56.23 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arabian Drilling Company worth?
The market values Arabian Drilling Company at about 8.6B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 96.25 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 40.02 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2381?
Our models span a range for Arabian Drilling Company: cautious scenario 31.42 SAR, base 40.02 SAR, optimistic 56.32 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 96.25 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arabian Drilling Company (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −2.4%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2381 from its 52-week high?
Arabian Drilling Company trades at 96.25 SAR, about 9% below its 52-week high of 106.00 SAR and 31% above the low of 73.40 SAR (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 40.02 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arabian Drilling Company?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Noble Corporation, Transocean Ltd, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation, Valaris Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arabian Drilling Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 96.25 SAR, calculated fair value 40.02 SAR (−58%), Quality Score 38/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2381 calculated?
We run Arabian Drilling Company through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 40.02 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Arabian Drilling Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was 96.25 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 40.02 SAR, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arabian Drilling Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (56.32 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Arabian Drilling Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
The market capitalisation of Arabian Drilling Company is 8.6B SAR (≈ $2.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arabian Drilling Company is 2.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
Earnings per share at Arabian Drilling Company are −1.61 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
The dividend yield of Arabian Drilling Company is 1.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
The net margin of Arabian Drilling Company is −2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arabian Drilling Company is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arabian Drilling Company is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
The operating margin of Arabian Drilling Company is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
Revenue at Arabian Drilling Company is growing −9.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
Earnings per share at Arabian Drilling Company are growing −90.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arabian Drilling Company (2381) carry?
The net debt of Arabian Drilling Company is 2.4B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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