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Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Sable Offshore Corp. $1.59, price $4.15, upside -61.7%, quality 14 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · US · ISIN US78574H1041

SO Sable Offshore Corp. logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Sable Offshore Corp.

SOC · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $1.59 · Strongly overvalued (−62%)
!Quality 14/100
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/8)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Insider activity 42/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$33.02 $3.08 Fair Value $1.59 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.08 – $33.02 · fair‑value band $1.18 – $2.36 · the $4.15 price screens above the $1.59 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Sable Offshore Corp. operates as an independent oil and gas company in the United States. The company operates through three platforms located in federal waters offshore California.

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Sable Offshore Corp. operates as an independent oil and gas company in the United States. The company operates through three platforms located in federal waters offshore California. It also owns and operates 16 federal leases across approximately 76,000 acres, as well as subsea pipelines that transports crude oil, natural gas, and produced water from the platforms to the onshore processing facilities. The company was formerly known as Flame Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Sable Offshore Corp. in February 2024. Sable Offshore Corp. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Stock analysis

Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) currently trades at $4.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.59, implying the stock looks roughly 161.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.18 (bear) to $2.36 (bull), the price of $4.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 14/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Sable Offshore Corp. reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$410M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $888M · P/S ratio 6.42 · EPS (TTM) $−3.18 · Return on equity −103% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.2% · Operating margin −48.8% · Revenue (TTM) $138M · Free cash flow −$769M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 83% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −62%, SOC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.18 Fair Value $1.59 Bull $2.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.39 $1.87 $2.78 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.39 $1.87 $2.78 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 14/100

Of which business quality 19 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 24
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

SOC screens 161% overvalued. Compare with Noble Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Drilling · 34 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 19 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −62% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −49% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.66× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 6.42× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Noble Corporation NE $45.04 $46.18 +3%
Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation 600871 ¥2.12 ¥0.5200 −75%
Transocean Ltd RIG $5.49 $4.88 −11%
Valaris Limited VAL $82.72 $58.91 −29%
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc PTEN $11.14 $22.36 +101%
Helmerich & Payne, Inc HP $39.79 $22.68 −43%
Seadrill Limited SDRL $46.85 $10.17 −78%
Odfjell Drilling Ltd ODL kr 102.80 kr 68.12 −34%
Arabian Drilling Company 2381 94.10 SAR 20.01 SAR −79%
Borr Drilling Limited BORR kr 41.67 kr 56.75 +36%

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Sable Offshore Corp. · Fair Value
$1.59 −161%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sable Offshore Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SOC

Frequently asked questions

Is Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.59 versus a price of $4.15, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SOC?
Our model-based fair value for Sable Offshore Corp. is $1.59 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.15.
What is the quality score of SOC?
Sable Offshore Corp. has a Quality Score of 14/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.59 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.18, optimistic scenario $2.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sable Offshore Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.59, about −62% upside versus a price of $4.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.18, optimistic scenario $2.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
Sable Offshore Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $138M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sable Offshore Corp. it is $1.59 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.15. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sable Offshore Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SOC trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.15, fair value $1.59, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SOC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.59). For Sable Offshore Corp. the two are $2.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sable Offshore Corp. worth?
The market values Sable Offshore Corp. at about $888M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.15; our models calculate a fair value of $1.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SOC?
Our models span a range for Sable Offshore Corp.: cautious scenario $1.18, base $1.59, optimistic $2.36 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sable Offshore Corp. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −103.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 14/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SOC from its 52-week high?
Sable Offshore Corp. trades at $4.15, about 83% below its 52-week high of $24.49 and 35% above the low of $3.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sable Offshore Corp.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Noble Corporation, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation, Transocean Ltd, Valaris Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sable Offshore Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.15, calculated fair value $1.59 (−62%), Quality Score 14/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SOC calculated?
We run Sable Offshore Corp. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Sable Offshore Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $4.15. Our model-based fair value is $1.59, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sable Offshore Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (14/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.18 to $2.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Sable Offshore Corp.

How large is the market capitalisation of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
The market capitalisation of Sable Offshore Corp. is $888M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sable Offshore Corp. is 6.42 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
Earnings per share at Sable Offshore Corp. are $−3.18. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sable Offshore Corp. is −103% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sable Offshore Corp. is −12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
The operating margin of Sable Offshore Corp. is −48.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) generate?
The free cash flow of Sable Offshore Corp. is −$769M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) hold?
Sable Offshore Corp. holds more cash than debt, $97.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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