Sable Offshore Corp (SOC) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $797M
Sable Offshore Corp
SOC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $6.23 to $1.87 (−70.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +15.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (14/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.39 to $2.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.08 – $33.02 · fair‑value band $1.39 – $2.79 · the $4.75 price screens above the $1.87 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Sable Offshore Corp (SOC) currently trades at $4.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.87, implying the stock looks roughly 60.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 14/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $1.3M. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $97.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.39 (bear case) to $2.79 (bull case); at $4.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -61%, SOC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 19 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Sable Offshore Corp. operates as an independent oil and gas company in the United States. The company operates through three platforms located in federal waters offshore California.
Full company description
Sable Offshore Corp. operates as an independent oil and gas company in the United States. The company operates through three platforms located in federal waters offshore California. It also owns and operates 16 federal leases across approximately 76,000 acres, as well as subsea pipelines that transports crude oil, natural gas, and produced water from the platforms to the onshore processing facilities. The company was formerly known as Flame Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Sable Offshore Corp. in February 2024. Sable Offshore Corp. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sable Offshore Corp reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$410M in FY2025.
SOC screens 61% overvalued. Compare with Noble Corporation →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Drilling · 31 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Corporation NE | $41.79 | $23.09 | -45% |
| Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation 600871 | ¥2.21 | ¥0.4900 | -78% |
| Transocean Ltd RIG | $5.14 | $2.16 | -58% |
| Valaris Limited VAL | $79.57 | $63.09 | -21% |
| Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc PTEN | $9.39 | $12.20 | +30% |
| Helmerich & Payne, Inc HP | $34.14 | $9.25 | -73% |
| Seadrill Limited SDRL | $42.86 | $10.17 | -76% |
| Arabian Drilling Company 2381 | 80.70 SAR | 11.09 SAR | -86% |
| Nabors Industries Ltd NBR | $84.72 | $209.20 | +147% |
| Borr Drilling Limited BORR | kr 41.99 | kr 27.75 | -34% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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