Beijing UBOX Online Tech Corp (2429) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$2.5B (≈ $316M)

What is Beijing UBOX Online Tech Corp really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

34‑month range HK$1.77 – HK$27.25 · fair‑value band HK$1.01 – HK$1.30 · the HK$1.88 price screens above the HK$1.16 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Beijing UBOX Online Tech Corp (2429) currently trades at HK$1.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.16, implying the stock looks roughly 62.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$1.62 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the HK$1.88 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.8400, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Beijing UBOX Online Tech Corp generated revenue of HK$2.8B at a net margin of −2.5%. Revenue declined 7.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −7.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$643M. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.01 (bear case) to HK$1.30 (bull case); at HK$1.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −39%, 2429 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$1.62) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.8400). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Beijing UBOX Online Technology Corp. operates vending machines in Mainland China. The company operates through Unmanned Retail Business; Merchandise Wholesale; Advertising and System Support Services; and Others segments.

Full company description

Beijing UBOX Online Technology Corp. operates vending machines in Mainland China. The company operates through Unmanned Retail Business; Merchandise Wholesale; Advertising and System Support Services; and Others segments. It sells fast-moving consumer goods, such as food and beverage to end customers through a network of vending machines, including pick-and-go cabinet, beverage vending machine, beverage and snack vending machine, and freshly brewed beverage vending machines. The company is also involved in merchandise wholesale; vending machine sales and leases; and provision of merchandise display advertising and mobile device distribution services. In addition, it engages in the sell, lease, and/or provide hardware support services comprising machine installation and maintenance services for vending machines; operation system support to karaoke booth franchisees; and operates karaoke booths. Beijing UBOX Online Technology Corp. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Beijing UBOX Online Tech Corp reported revenue of 2.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was −66.9M CNY in FY2025.

2429 screens 63% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →

Peer Group

Grocery Stores · 78 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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