Carrefour SA (CA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · FR · Market cap €11.8B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from €11.49 to €11.51 (+0.2%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price −4.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 27% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from €11.51 (bear) to €15.51 (bull), base €11.51. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 54/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.83 – €16.79 · fair‑value band €11.51 – €15.51 · the €15.77 price screens above the €11.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Carrefour SA (CA) currently trades at €15.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.51, implying the stock looks roughly 27.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Carrefour SA generated revenue of €83.8B at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.6%. Net debt stands at €19.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €11.51 (bear case) to €15.51 (bull case); at €15.77, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -27%, CA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€68.53) versus Multiples (€9.47). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Carrefour SA operates as a food retailer in France, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and internationally. The company operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores, club stores, and cash and carry stores; soft discount stores; and e-commerce sites.
Full company description
Carrefour SA operates as a food retailer in France, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and internationally. The company operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores, club stores, and cash and carry stores; soft discount stores; and e-commerce sites. It is also involved in the provision of financial services; banking and insurance services; property development; travel ticketing and leisure; agency; shopping mall rental; and franchise activities. Carrefour SA was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Massy, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carrefour SA reported revenue of €84.0B in FY2025 versus €71.8B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was €319M in FY2025, compounding −26.1%/yr from FY2021.
CA screens 27% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Carrefour (CRERF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Sales Growth and Strategic Advances
- Carrefour H1 sales rise, earnings climb 18%
- France Licensing Day Returns 30 June, Featuring Global Brands and Exclusive Carrefour Keynote
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$65.49 | C$44.44 | -32% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €36.30 | €53.50 | +47% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $58.82 | $28.19 | -52% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$39.20 | A$13.40 | -66% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$100.98 | C$63.61 | -37% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.56 | A$15.86 | -33% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$93.64 | C$94.01 | +0% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.89 SGD | 2.36 SGD | +25% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 385.75 TRY | 267.12 TRY | -31% |
| Kesko Oyj KESKOA | €19.94 | €12.13 | -39% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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