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TS Lines Ltd (2510) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$12.6B

TL TS Lines Ltd 2510 · HK
PriceHK$9.65
Fair ValueHK$5.36
Upside-44.4%
Quality68/100
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Weak Growth
Highly profitable · 25.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.31% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Wide moat 71/100
Evidence: High Range HK$4.18 – HK$7.42 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$2.68 to HK$5.36 (+100.0%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +20.0% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 44% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$7.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (21 months)

HK$9.65 HK$3.08 Fair Value HK$5.36 Nov 2024 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

21‑month range HK$3.08 – HK$9.65 · fair‑value band HK$4.18 – HK$7.42 · the HK$9.65 price screens above the HK$5.36 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

TS Lines Ltd (2510) currently trades at HK$9.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.36, implying the stock looks roughly 44.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, TS Lines Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.3B at a net margin of 25.6%. Revenue declined 19.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$336M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$4.18 (bear case) to HK$7.42 (bull case); at HK$9.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at -44%, 2510 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.24 HK$2.95 HK$4.17 80
Residual Income HK$1.31 HK$1.64 HK$3.62 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.56 HK$2.05 HK$2.67 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.16 HK$2.89 HK$4.24 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.95 HK$2.61 HK$3.82 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.56 HK$2.01 HK$2.66 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.14 HK$3.02 HK$4.18 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$2.65 HK$3.90 HK$5.39 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.75 HK$2.11 HK$2.48 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.13 HK$2.73 HK$3.37 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$2.44 HK$3.28 HK$4.08 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.35 HK$1.64 HK$1.85 54
EPV HK$1.38 HK$1.56 HK$1.72 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.09 HK$1.20 HK$1.36 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.09 HK$1.37 HK$1.76 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$3.12 HK$4.15 HK$5.19 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.16 HK$1.55 HK$1.93 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.52 HK$3.36 HK$4.20 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.91 HK$2.44 HK$2.98 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.44 HK$3.16 HK$3.88 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.27 HK$1.68 HK$2.10 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6400 HK$0.8500 HK$1.27 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.24 HK$2.95 HK$4.17 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.56 HK$2.05 HK$2.67 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.31 HK$1.64 HK$3.62 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.38 HK$1.59 HK$1.83 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.20 HK$3.14 HK$4.09 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$3.14) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.8500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) -19.6%
Net margin 25.6%
Return on equity 16.1%
Free cash flow HK$319M FY2025
P/E ratio 4.9 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 24.3%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1100
Dividend yield 1.3%
EPS growth (YoY) -59.3%
Net cash HK$336M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 79
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 86
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 47
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 73
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

T.S. Lines Limited, an investment holding company, provides shipping container and related services in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, Australia, Thailand, India, and internationally. It offers vessel chartering and shipping agency services. The company operates a fleet of owned vessels and chartered vessels.

Full company description

T.S. Lines Limited, an investment holding company, provides shipping container and related services in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, Australia, Thailand, India, and internationally. It offers vessel chartering and shipping agency services. The company operates a fleet of owned vessels and chartered vessels. It serves freight forwarders; other container shipping companies; and BCO customers, such as small and medium-sized businesses, including manufacturers of consumer, primary, and mechanical products. T.S. Lines Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

TS Lines Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2025 versus HK$14.3B in FY2021, a compound −45.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$329M in FY2025, compounding −55.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.3B
Latest YoY
−87.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−59.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−27.2%
Revenue −45.3%/yr
FY21 HK$14.3B
FY22 HK$19.1B
FY23 HK$6.8B
FY24 HK$10.4B
FY25 HK$1.3B
Net income −55.5%/yr
FY21 HK$8.4B
FY22 HK$8.4B
FY23 HK$162M
FY24 HK$2.8B
FY25 HK$329M

2510 screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →

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TS Lines Ltd · Fair Value
HK$5.36 −44%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TS Lines Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2510

Peer Group

Marine Shipping · 232 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −44% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 26% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Above median
Revenue growth -20% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.76× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.25× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 22
FUTURE 0 · sector 20
PAST 64 · sector 27
HEALTH 100 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 26 · sector 56

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS ₹1,658 ₹1,041 -37%
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA kr 16,810 kr 3,033 -82%
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 ¥15.25 ¥49.90 +227%
HMM Co 011200 21,350 KRW 33,795 KRW +58%
JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA ₹346.60 ₹126.31 -64%
Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 87.10 TWD 212.79 TWD +144%
PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, TCPI 3,640 IDR 368.32 IDR -90%
Pan Ocean Co 028670 5,630 KRW 11,840 KRW +110%
Sociedad Matriz SAAM S.A SMSAAM 136.33 CLP 146.31 CLP +7%
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk ALII 795.00 IDR 350.80 IDR -56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is TS Lines Ltd (2510) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.36 versus a price of HK$9.65, about −44% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2510?
Our model-based fair value for TS Lines Ltd is HK$5.36 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$9.65.
What is the quality score of 2510?
TS Lines Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of TS Lines Ltd (2510)?
TS Lines Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2510?
The net profit margin of TS Lines Ltd is about 25.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 25.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does TS Lines Ltd pay a dividend?
TS Lines Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.31% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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