PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ALII) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · ID · Market cap 12.0T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +14.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (711.58 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (217.41 IDR to 711.58 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
30‑month range 301.99 IDR – 1,287 IDR · fair‑value band 217.41 IDR – 711.58 IDR · the 785.00 IDR price screens above the 350.80 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ALII) currently trades at 785.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 350.80 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 55.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk generated revenue of 974B IDR at a net margin of 38.6%. Revenue grew 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.0%. Net debt stands at 226B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 217.41 IDR (bear case) to 711.58 IDR (bull case); at 785.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 67% fair-value upside, at -55%, ALII screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (826.44 IDR) versus Asset-Based (88.22 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk engages in the sea transportation, transshipment, and intermediate stockpile services in Indonesia. The company operates through Coal Barging and Floating Loading; and Loading Unloading segments. It provides trading, transportation and mining; river and sea barges, as well as tugboat services.
Full company description
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk engages in the sea transportation, transshipment, and intermediate stockpile services in Indonesia. The company operates through Coal Barging and Floating Loading; and Loading Unloading segments. It provides trading, transportation and mining; river and sea barges, as well as tugboat services. The company also operates terminals used for the coal loading process from barges to stockpiles. In addition, it provides floating transhipper units. PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of 970B IDR in FY2025 versus 628B IDR in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 374B IDR in FY2025, compounding +18.6%/yr from FY2021.
ALII screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →
Peer Group
Marine Shipping · 231 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,828 | ₹1,041 | -43% |
| A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA | kr 16,520 | kr 3,033 | -82% |
| COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 | ¥13.98 | ¥40.37 | +189% |
| Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 | ¥5.17 | ¥6.57 | +27% |
| HMM Co 011200 | 20,050 KRW | 33,855 KRW | +69% |
| Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 | ¥3.35 | ¥5.58 | +67% |
| Qingdao Port International Co 601298 | ¥8.88 | ¥15.97 | +80% |
| JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA | ₹330.05 | ₹126.31 | -62% |
| Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 | 80.70 TWD | 212.79 TWD | +164% |
| Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WAWI | kr 137.70 | kr 50.56 | -63% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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