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PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ALII) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · ID · Market cap 12.0T IDR

PA PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk ALII · JK
Price785.00 IDR
Fair Value350.80 IDR
Upside-55.3%
Quality57/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 38.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Wide moat 79/100
Evidence: High Range 217.41 IDR – 711.58 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price +14.6% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 55% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (711.58 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (217.41 IDR to 711.58 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

1,287 IDR 301.99 IDR Fair Value 350.80 IDR Feb 2024 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

30‑month range 301.99 IDR – 1,287 IDR · fair‑value band 217.41 IDR – 711.58 IDR · the 785.00 IDR price screens above the 350.80 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ALII) currently trades at 785.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 350.80 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 55.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk generated revenue of 974B IDR at a net margin of 38.6%. Revenue grew 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.0%. Net debt stands at 226B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 217.41 IDR (bear case) to 711.58 IDR (bull case); at 785.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 67% fair-value upside, at -55%, ALII screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 177.99 IDR 351.19 IDR 716.26 IDR 80
Residual Income 163.10 IDR 216.01 IDR 845.30 IDR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 112.05 IDR 210.17 IDR 400.77 IDR 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 189.29 IDR 309.69 IDR 703.36 IDR 38
Owner Earnings 345.56 IDR 819.48 IDR 1,859 IDR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 108.04 IDR 182.64 IDR 337.97 IDR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 237.48 IDR 444.47 IDR 851.14 IDR 41
5Y P/E Exit 331.87 IDR 802.82 IDR 1,454 IDR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 129.46 IDR 271.01 IDR 353.96 IDR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 229.75 IDR 556.32 IDR 1,137 IDR 37
10Y P/E Exit 300.21 IDR 764.37 IDR 1,549 IDR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 160.82 IDR 1,122 IDR 1,574 IDR 54
Lynch FV 463.55 IDR 662.21 IDR 860.87 IDR 50
PEG = 1.0 463.55 IDR 662.21 IDR 860.87 IDR 46
EPV 160.66 IDR 190.30 IDR 216.65 IDR 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 372.49 IDR 496.66 IDR 620.82 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 91.96 IDR 122.61 IDR 153.27 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 301.54 IDR 402.06 IDR 502.57 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 266.53 IDR 357.81 IDR 449.08 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 243.01 IDR 326.45 IDR 409.89 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 69.94 IDR 103.05 IDR 136.16 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 65.83 IDR 88.22 IDR 131.67 IDR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 177.99 IDR 351.19 IDR 716.26 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 112.05 IDR 210.17 IDR 400.77 IDR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 163.10 IDR 216.01 IDR 845.30 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 196.83 IDR 280.02 IDR 360.06 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 578.51 IDR 826.44 IDR 1,074 IDR 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (826.44 IDR) versus Asset-Based (88.22 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 974B IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.5%
Net margin 38.6%
Return on equity 20.0%
Free cash flow 174B IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 30.9
More key figures
Operating margin 39.4%
EPS (TTM) 23.77 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) +1.7%
Net debt 226B IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 17
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 18
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk engages in the sea transportation, transshipment, and intermediate stockpile services in Indonesia. The company operates through Coal Barging and Floating Loading; and Loading Unloading segments. It provides trading, transportation and mining; river and sea barges, as well as tugboat services.

Full company description

PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk engages in the sea transportation, transshipment, and intermediate stockpile services in Indonesia. The company operates through Coal Barging and Floating Loading; and Loading Unloading segments. It provides trading, transportation and mining; river and sea barges, as well as tugboat services. The company also operates terminals used for the coal loading process from barges to stockpiles. In addition, it provides floating transhipper units. PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of 970B IDR in FY2025 versus 628B IDR in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 374B IDR in FY2025, compounding +18.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
970B IDR
Latest YoY
+5.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+13.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+63.3%
Revenue +11.5%/yr
FY21 628B IDR
FY22 670B IDR
FY23 931B IDR
FY24 921B IDR
FY25 970B IDR
Net income +18.6%/yr
FY21 189B IDR
FY22 164B IDR
FY23 187B IDR
FY24 289B IDR
FY25 374B IDR

ALII screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALII

Peer Group

Marine Shipping · 231 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −55% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 39% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 39% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.06× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 31.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 5.77× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 12.35× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 28.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 29
FUTURE 8 · sector 18
PAST 80 · sector 27
HEALTH 97 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS ₹1,828 ₹1,041 -43%
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA kr 16,520 kr 3,033 -82%
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 ¥13.98 ¥40.37 +189%
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 ¥5.17 ¥6.57 +27%
HMM Co 011200 20,050 KRW 33,855 KRW +69%
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 ¥3.35 ¥5.58 +67%
Qingdao Port International Co 601298 ¥8.88 ¥15.97 +80%
JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA ₹330.05 ₹126.31 -62%
Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 80.70 TWD 212.79 TWD +164%
Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WAWI kr 137.70 kr 50.56 -63%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ALII) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 350.80 IDR versus a price of 785.00 IDR, about −55% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALII?
Our model-based fair value for PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk is 350.80 IDR (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 785.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ALII?
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ALII)?
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 974B IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALII?
The net profit margin of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk is about 38.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 38.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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