PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia IDR 699, price IDR 720, upside -3.0%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
32‑month range 301.99 IDR – 1,287 IDR · fair‑value band 317.34 IDR – 884.14 IDR · the 720.00 IDR price screens above the 698.76 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk engages in the sea transportation, transshipment, and intermediate stockpile services in Indonesia. The company operates through Coal Barging and Floating Loading; and Loading Unloading segments. It provides trading, transportation and mining; river and sea barges, as well as tugboat services.
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PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk engages in the sea transportation, transshipment, and intermediate stockpile services in Indonesia. The company operates through Coal Barging and Floating Loading; and Loading Unloading segments. It provides trading, transportation and mining; river and sea barges, as well as tugboat services. The company also operates terminals used for the coal loading process from barges to stockpiles. In addition, it provides floating transhipper units. PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII) currently trades at 720.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 698.76 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 3.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 826.44 IDR per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the 720.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 88.22 IDR, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 317.34 IDR (bear) to 884.14 IDR (bull), the price of 720.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia reported revenue of 970B IDR in FY2025 versus 628B IDR in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 374B IDR in FY2025, compounding +18.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 11.4T IDR (≈ $1.1B) · P/E ratio 30.3 · P/S ratio 11.7 · EPS (TTM) 23.79 IDR · Net margin 38.6% · Return on equity 20.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.1% · Operating margin 39.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 61% fair-value upside, at −3%, ALII screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 317.34 IDRFair Value 698.76 IDRBull 884.14 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (17.40 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+63.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +6.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−31% → 35%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 53% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+46.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +42.7% a year for the price.
Compare PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 236 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)39% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)39% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALII
Frequently asked questions
Is PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 698.76 IDR versus a price of 720.00 IDR, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALII?
Our model-based fair value for PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia is 698.76 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 720.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ALII?
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 698.76 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 317.34 IDR, optimistic scenario 884.14 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 698.76 IDR, about −3% upside versus a price of 720.00 IDR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 317.34 IDR, optimistic scenario 884.14 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 974B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia would have to grow free cash flow by +46.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +63.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALII use?
Our models discount PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia at 14.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia that is +46.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia grew +63.3 % a year. The price currently implies +46.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (+46.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.53 %: that much free cash flow PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia it is 698.76 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 720.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALII trades above its calculated fair value: price 720.00 IDR, fair value 698.76 IDR, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALII?
No. The price is what the market pays today (720.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (698.76 IDR). For PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia the two are 21.24 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia worth?
The market values PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia at about 11.4T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 720.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 698.76 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALII?
Our models span a range for PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia: cautious scenario 317.34 IDR, base 698.76 IDR, optimistic 884.14 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 720.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALII?
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 698.76 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.5, P/S 11.7, EV/EBITDA 26.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 20.0%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALII from its 52-week high?
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia trades at 720.00 IDR, about 44% below its 52-week high of 1,287 IDR and 37% above the low of 525.73 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 698.76 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 720.00 IDR, calculated fair value 698.76 IDR (−3%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALII calculated?
We run PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 698.76 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 720.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 698.76 IDR, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia right now?
The model range is unusually wide (317.34 IDR to 884.14 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
The market capitalisation of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia is 11.4T IDR (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia is 11.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
Earnings per share at PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia are 23.79 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
The net margin of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia is 38.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia is 20.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia is 15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
The operating margin of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia is 39.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
Revenue at PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia is growing +1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII)?
Earnings per share at PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia are growing +1.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia (ALII) carry?
The net debt of PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia is 226B IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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