Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT IDR 368, price IDR 1,540, upside -76.1%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,435 IDR – 13,513 IDR · fair‑value band 294.69 IDR – 478.82 IDR · the 1,540 IDR price screens above the 368.32 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, provides vessel charter and goods freight services in Indonesia. It operates through Sea Transportation Business and Other Business Activities segments.
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PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, provides vessel charter and goods freight services in Indonesia. It operates through Sea Transportation Business and Other Business Activities segments. The company offers maritime transportation services for coal, nickel, industrial diesel, and crude palm oil; transshipment services for bulk goods; assist tug rental services; floating barges for terminal storage of fuel oil; and mooring man and oil spill response team services, as well as barging, long hauling, floating terminal station, mother vessel, and agency services. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Sari Nusantara Gemilang.
Stock analysis
Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI) currently trades at 1,540 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 368.32 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 318.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 480.74 IDR per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the 1,540 IDR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 63.94 IDR, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 294.69 IDR (bear) to 478.82 IDR (bull), the price of 1,540 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT reported revenue of 1.9T IDR in FY2025 versus 1.7T IDR in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was 117B IDR in FY2025, compounding +10.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 29.5T IDR (≈ $1.6B) · P/E ratio 227.3 · P/S ratio 14.1 · EPS (TTM) 25.96 IDR · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 89% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 60% fair-value upside, at −76%, TCPI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (63.94 IDR to 1,435 IDR). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 294.69 IDRFair Value 368.32 IDRBull 478.82 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (19.20 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.2% vs 6.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 13%
Compare Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−76.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.3% · Below median
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)19.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)227.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B14.29× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)14.91× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA61.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)73· sector 40
PAST (return on equity)25· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 368.32 IDR versus a price of 1,540 IDR, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TCPI?
Our model-based fair value for Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT is 368.32 IDR (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,540 IDR.
What is the quality score of TCPI?
Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 368.32 IDR (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 294.69 IDR, optimistic scenario 478.82 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 368.32 IDR, about −76% upside versus a price of 1,540 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 294.69 IDR, optimistic scenario 478.82 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.0T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT pay a dividend?
Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT it is 368.32 IDR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 1,540 IDR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, TCPI trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,540 IDR, fair value 368.32 IDR, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCPI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,540 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (368.32 IDR). For Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT the two are 1,172 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT worth?
The market values Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT at about 29.5T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 1,540 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 368.32 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCPI?
Our models span a range for Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT: cautious scenario 294.69 IDR, base 368.32 IDR, optimistic 478.82 IDR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 1,540 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TCPI?
Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 227.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 368.32 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 14.3, P/S 14.9, EV/EBITDA 61.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TCPI from its 52-week high?
Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT trades at 1,540 IDR, about 89% below its 52-week high of 13,513 IDR and 7% above the low of 1,435 IDR (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 368.32 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 1,540 IDR, calculated fair value 368.32 IDR (−76%), Quality Score 47/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCPI calculated?
We run Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 368.32 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 1,540 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 368.32 IDR, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (478.82 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI) come from?
Earnings per share at Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT grew +9.0 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +18.4 %, EBIT margin −1.4 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
The market capitalisation of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT is 29.5T IDR (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT is 14.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
Earnings per share at Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT are 25.96 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 227.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
The dividend yield of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT is 0.1% (payout 5.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
The net margin of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT is 6.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
The operating margin of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
Revenue at Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI)?
Earnings per share at Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT are growing +28.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI) generate?
The free cash flow of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT is −24.2B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI) carry?
The net debt of Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT is 1.1T IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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