PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, (TCPI) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · ID · Market cap 29.5T IDR
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 437.47 IDR to 368.32 IDR (−15.8%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price −40.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 90% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (478.82 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3,560 IDR – 13,513 IDR · fair‑value band 316.02 IDR – 478.82 IDR · the 3,560 IDR price screens above the 368.32 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, (TCPI) currently trades at 3,560 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 368.32 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 89.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, generated revenue of 2.0T IDR at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue grew 14.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. Net debt stands at 1.1T IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 316.02 IDR (bear case) to 478.82 IDR (bull case); at 3,560 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 74% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 43% fair-value upside, at -90%, TCPI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (480.74 IDR) versus Dividend Discount (86.01 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, provides vessel charter and goods freight services in Indonesia. It operates through Sea Transportation Business and Other Business Activities segments.
Full company description
PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, provides vessel charter and goods freight services in Indonesia. It operates through Sea Transportation Business and Other Business Activities segments. The company offers maritime transportation services for coal, nickel, industrial diesel, and crude palm oil; transshipment services for bulk goods; assist tug rental services; floating barges for terminal storage of fuel oil; and mooring man and oil spill response team services, as well as barging, long hauling, floating terminal station, mother vessel, and agency services. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Sari Nusantara Gemilang.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, reported revenue of 1.9T IDR in FY2025 versus 1.7T IDR in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was 117B IDR in FY2025, compounding +10.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +18.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TCPI screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →
Peer Group
Marine Shipping · 233 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,658 | ₹1,041 | -37% |
| A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA | kr 16,810 | kr 3,033 | -82% |
| COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 | ¥15.25 | ¥49.90 | +227% |
| HMM Co 011200 | 21,350 KRW | 33,795 KRW | +58% |
| JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA | ₹346.60 | ₹126.31 | -64% |
| Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 | 87.10 TWD | 212.79 TWD | +144% |
| The Great Eastern Shipping Company GESHIP | ₹1,299 | ₹1,854 | +43% |
| Pan Ocean Co 028670 | 5,630 KRW | 11,840 KRW | +110% |
| Sociedad Matriz SAAM S.A SMSAAM | 136.33 CLP | 146.31 CLP | +7% |
| PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk ALII | 795.00 IDR | 350.80 IDR | -56% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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