HMM Co Ltd (011200) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what HMM Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12,653 KRW – 42,356 KRW · fair‑value band 8,293 KRW – 14,785 KRW · the 21,100 KRW price screens above the 11,828 KRW fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
HMM Co.,Ltd, an integrated logistics company, provides shipping and logistics services in Japan and internationally.
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HMM Co.,Ltd, an integrated logistics company, provides shipping and logistics services in Japan and internationally. The company offers container services for general, reefer, oversized, and dangerous cargo; bulk liners; trampers that include Cape, Panamax, Supramax, and Handy; tankers, such as crude and product tankers, and LNG carriers; and heavy lifts and project carriers. It also operates container terminals and provides intermodal services using rails, barges, and trucks. In addition, the company offers digital solutions, such as Hi-Quote online reservation platform; HMM eBL; vendor partners; and invoice payments, as well as interfaces, including API, HMM EDI, HMM e-Service, and HMM Chatbot. The company was formerly known as Hyundai Merchant Marine Co.,Ltd. and changed its name to HMM Co.,Ltd in March 2020. HMM Co.,Ltd was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Seoul, South Korea.
Stock analysis
HMM Co Ltd (011200) currently trades at 21,100 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11,828 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 78.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 36,609 KRW per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the 21,100 KRW price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 9,131 KRW, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 8,293 KRW (bear) to 14,785 KRW (bull), the price of 21,100 KRW sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
HMM Co Ltd reported revenue of 10.9T KRW in FY2025 versus 13.8T KRW in FY2021, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.9T KRW in FY2025, compounding −23.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 19.9T KRW (≈ $13.9B) · P/S ratio 1.76 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 17.2% · Return on equity 5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.3% · Operating margin 9.9% · Revenue (TTM) 10.8T KRW.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −44%, 011200 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 8,293 KRWFair Value 11,828 KRWBull 14,785 KRW
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in KRW ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in KRW: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 13%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.1%/yr over ~6Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 229 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−44% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)14% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 23
PAST (return on equity)21· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)66· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HMM Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/011200
Frequently asked questions
Is HMM Co Ltd (011200) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 11,828 KRW versus a price of 21,100 KRW, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 011200?
Our model-based fair value for HMM Co Ltd is 11,828 KRW (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 21,100 KRW.
What is the quality score of 011200?
HMM Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 11,828 KRW (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8,293 KRW, optimistic scenario 14,785 KRW. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HMM Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 11,828 KRW, about −44% upside versus a price of 21,100 KRW (overvalued). Cautious scenario 8,293 KRW, optimistic scenario 14,785 KRW. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
HMM Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.8T KRW (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does HMM Co Ltd pay a dividend?
HMM Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HMM Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -2.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.2 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 011200 use?
Our models discount HMM Co Ltd at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for South Korea. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HMM Co Ltd that is -2.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HMM Co Ltd (011200) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HMM Co Ltd grew +11.2 % a year. The price currently implies -2.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HMM Co Ltd (011200) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HMM Co Ltd (-2.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.57 %: that much free cash flow HMM Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HMM Co Ltd it is 11,828 KRW per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of 21,100 KRW. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HMM Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 011200 trades above its calculated fair value: price 21,100 KRW, fair value 11,828 KRW, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 011200?
No. The price is what the market pays today (21,100 KRW); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (11,828 KRW). For HMM Co Ltd the two are 9,272 KRW per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HMM Co Ltd worth?
The market values HMM Co Ltd at about 19.9T KRW (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is 21,100 KRW; our models calculate a fair value of 11,828 KRW per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 011200?
Our models span a range for HMM Co Ltd: cautious scenario 8,293 KRW, base 11,828 KRW, optimistic 14,785 KRW per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price 21,100 KRW). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
Balance-sheet figures for HMM Co Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 5.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 011200 from its 52-week high?
HMM Co Ltd trades at 21,100 KRW, about 17% below its 52-week high of 25,466 KRW and 17% above the low of 18,103 KRW (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 11,828 KRW is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HMM Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S, 532921, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HMM Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price 21,100 KRW, calculated fair value 11,828 KRW (−44%), Quality Score 43/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 011200 calculated?
We run HMM Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 11,828 KRW, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. HMM Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was 21,100 KRW. Our model-based fair value is 11,828 KRW, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HMM Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (14,785 KRW). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of HMM Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The market capitalisation of HMM Co Ltd is 19.9T KRW (≈ $13.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HMM Co Ltd is 1.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The dividend yield of HMM Co Ltd is 3.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The net margin of HMM Co Ltd is 17.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HMM Co Ltd is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HMM Co Ltd is 19.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The operating margin of HMM Co Ltd is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
Revenue at HMM Co Ltd is growing −4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
Earnings per share at HMM Co Ltd are growing −48.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HMM Co Ltd (011200) carry?
The net debt of HMM Co Ltd is 504B KRW (fiscal year 2020, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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