China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Life Insurance Co Ltd stock HK$45.75, price HK$25.62, upside +78.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Meets all rules:undervalued,solid quality, uptrend
The stock costs 44% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value HK$45.75 · Strongly undervalued (44%)
Quality 64/100
Healthy Growth(revenue YoY +18.1 %/yr in CNY)
Highly profitable · 54.2% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
4.4% dividend yield · Well covered
Ranks above peers(14/15)
Broad data
Costs just 2.4 times its yearly profit.
Wide moat79/100 · thin data
Downbeat coverage
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Investment volatility causing sharply lower reported net profit🚩Regulatory penalties for branch misconduct🚩Stricter solvency rules and capital pressure
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$7.16 – HK$34.08 · fair‑value band HK$36.44 – HK$68.33 · the HK$25.62 price screens below the HK$45.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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China Life Insurance Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a life insurance company in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Life Insurance Business, Health Insurance Business, Accident Insurance Business, and Other Businesses segments.
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It offers life, annuity, health, and accident insurance products to individuals and groups. The company was founded in 1949 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Life Insurance Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Life Insurance (Group) Company.
Stock analysis
China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628) currently trades at HK$25.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$45.75, implying the stock looks roughly 44% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$45.60 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$25.62 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$15.44, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$36.44 (bear) to HK$68.33 (bull), the price of HK$25.62 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
China Life Insurance Co Ltd reported revenue of 605B CNY in FY2025 versus 848B CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was 154B CNY in FY2025, compounding +32.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$724B (≈ $92.4B) Large · P/E ratio 2.4 · P/S ratio 0.62 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 25.5% · Return on equity 41.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin 76.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 79%, 2628 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$36.44Fair Value HK$45.75BullHK$68.33
Price HK$25.62 · Upside +78.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+32.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.9% vs 16.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 30%
2025 sits 201% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (50 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Core insurance metrics show steady gains in adjusted profit and new business value, yet limited public signals leave capital market swings as the main driver of reported earnings.
Main risk: Repeated fines and agent bans at local branches for fabricating business and deceiving policyholders could damage reputation, raise compliance costs and restrict operations or sales channels.
Bull case: By strengthening internal controls and leveraging its scale and state backing, the company could turn compliance into a competitive edge while using capital support to expand in high-value segments.
Bear case: Persistent compliance failures and capital constraints from regulation could erode trust, limit product innovation and force a retreat from certain markets or higher-risk policies over time.
China Life posted sharply lower reported net profit for the first nine months after investment volatility hit results against a tough prior-year base. Yet adjusted profit rose 15.8 percent, new business value grew 13.1 percent and premiums edged higher. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Does the steady improvement in core insurance metrics point to durable strength, or do capital-market swings remain the bigger driver of future earnings?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 14/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+78.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)41.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)54.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)76.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)153.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Life Insurance Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2628
Frequently asked questions
Is China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$45.75 versus a price of HK$25.62, about +79% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2628?
Our model-based fair value for China Life Insurance Co Ltd is HK$45.75 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$25.62.
What is the quality score of 2628?
China Life Insurance Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$45.75 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$36.44, optimistic scenario HK$68.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Life Insurance Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$45.75, about +79% upside versus a price of HK$25.62 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$36.44, optimistic scenario HK$68.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
China Life Insurance Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 457B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does China Life Insurance Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China Life Insurance Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.40% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Life Insurance Co Ltd it is HK$45.75 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of HK$25.62. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Life Insurance Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, 2628 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$25.62, fair value HK$45.75, a gap of about +79% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2628?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$25.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$45.75). For China Life Insurance Co Ltd the two are HK$20.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Life Insurance Co Ltd worth?
The market values China Life Insurance Co Ltd at about HK$724B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$25.62; our models calculate a fair value of HK$45.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2628?
Our models span a range for China Life Insurance Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$36.44, base HK$45.75, optimistic HK$68.33 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price HK$25.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2628?
China Life Insurance Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.4 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$45.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.0, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 1.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 2628?
The PEG ratio of China Life Insurance Co Ltd is 0.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Life Insurance Co Ltd (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 41.3%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2628 from its 52-week high?
China Life Insurance Co Ltd trades at HK$25.62, about 25% below its 52-week high of HK$34.08 and 13% above the low of HK$22.62 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$45.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Life Insurance Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, MetLife, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Life Insurance Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price HK$25.62, calculated fair value HK$45.75 (+79%), Quality Score 64/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2628 calculated?
We run China Life Insurance Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$45.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. China Life Insurance Co Ltd currently trades 44% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was HK$25.62. Our model-based fair value is HK$45.75, about +79% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Life Insurance Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$36.44). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$36.44 to HK$68.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628) come from?
Earnings per share at China Life Insurance Co Ltd grew +15.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.1 %, EBIT margin +13.5 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Life Insurance Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
The market capitalisation of China Life Insurance Co Ltd is HK$724B (≈ $92.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Life Insurance Co Ltd is 0.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
The dividend yield of China Life Insurance Co Ltd is 4.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
The net margin of China Life Insurance Co Ltd is 25.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Life Insurance Co Ltd is 41.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Life Insurance Co Ltd is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
The operating margin of China Life Insurance Co Ltd is 76.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
Revenue at China Life Insurance Co Ltd is growing +154% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628)?
Earnings per share at China Life Insurance Co Ltd are growing +849% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628) generate?
The free cash flow of China Life Insurance Co Ltd is 457B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628) hold?
China Life Insurance Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 107B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026