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China Life Insurance Company (2628) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$809B

CL China Life Insurance Company 2628 · HK
PriceHK$29.04
Fair ValueHK$55.40
Upside+90.8%
Quality65/100
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Weak Growth
Highly profitable · 42.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.11% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/15)
Wide moat 77/100
Evidence: High Range HK$41.54 – HK$69.25 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from HK$56.96 to HK$55.40 (−2.7%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +2.6% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 91% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$41.54). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$34.61 HK$7.27 Fair Value HK$55.40 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$7.27 – HK$34.61 · fair‑value band HK$41.54 – HK$69.25 · the HK$29.04 price screens below the HK$55.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

China Life Insurance Company (2628) currently trades at HK$29.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$55.40, implying the stock looks roughly 90.8% undervalued today. We read business quality at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Life Insurance Company generated revenue of HK$342B at a net margin of 42.3%. Revenue declined 15.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$107B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$41.54 (bear case) to HK$69.25 (bull case); at HK$29.04, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 91%, 2628 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$275.14 HK$530.07 HK$1,066 80
Residual Income HK$40.61 HK$57.78 HK$460.31 76
ROIC Compounder HK$73.72 HK$106.42 HK$152.72 72
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$291.51 HK$469.15 HK$1,047 38
Owner Earnings HK$95.59 HK$218.84 HK$489.15 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$107.91 HK$155.50 HK$247.42 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$126.02 HK$193.31 HK$318.27 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$139.06 HK$254.44 HK$401.02 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$156.43 HK$256.42 HK$321.35 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$171.42 HK$294.02 HK$501.45 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$180.99 HK$321.10 HK$552.80 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$37.06 HK$258.45 HK$362.70 54
Lynch FV HK$86.71 HK$123.88 HK$161.04 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$86.71 HK$123.88 HK$161.04 46
EPV HK$59.20 HK$68.97 HK$77.66 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$9.05 HK$19.76 HK$33.25 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$9.05 HK$16.19 HK$20.59 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$81.75 HK$109.00 HK$136.25 63
P/S Multiple HK$40.13 HK$53.51 HK$66.89 58
P/B Multiple HK$47.37 HK$63.16 HK$78.95 55
EV/EBIT HK$90.55 HK$119.46 HK$148.37 53
EV/EBITDA HK$68.15 HK$89.59 HK$111.03 54
EV/Revenue HK$41.28 HK$57.33 HK$73.39 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$10.53 HK$14.11 HK$21.05 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$275.14 HK$530.07 HK$1,066 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$40.61 HK$57.78 HK$460.31 76
ROIC Compounder HK$73.72 HK$106.42 HK$152.72 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$112.03 HK$160.05 HK$208.06 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$530.07) versus Asset-Based (HK$14.11). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$342B
Revenue growth (YoY) -15.2%
Net margin 42.3%
Return on equity 25.5%
Free cash flow HK$457B FY2025
P/E ratio 4.7
More key figures
Operating margin 38.1%
EPS (TTM) HK$4.92
Dividend yield 3.1%
EPS growth (YoY) -32.4%
Net cash HK$107B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 60
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 68
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Life Insurance Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a life insurance company in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Life Insurance Business, Health Insurance Business, Accident Insurance Business, and Other Businesses segments.

Full company description

China Life Insurance Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a life insurance company in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Life Insurance Business, Health Insurance Business, Accident Insurance Business, and Other Businesses segments. It offers life, annuity, health, and accident insurance products to individuals and groups. The company was founded in 1949 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Life Insurance Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Life Insurance (Group) Company.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Life Insurance Company reported revenue of HK$605B in FY2025 versus HK$848B in FY2021, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$154B in FY2025, compounding +32.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$605B
Latest YoY
+18.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−9.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−5.8%
Avg. growth/yr (24Y)
+10.0%
Revenue −8.1%/yr
FY21 HK$848B
FY22 HK$822B
FY23 HK$396B
FY24 HK$512B
FY25 HK$605B
Net income +32.0%/yr
FY21 HK$50.8B
FY22 HK$32.1B
FY23 HK$51.2B
FY24 HK$107B
FY25 HK$154B

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China Life Insurance Company · Fair Value
HK$55.40 +91%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Life Insurance Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2628

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Insurance - Life · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +91% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 42% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 38% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -15% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.06× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.36× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.37× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.23× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 28
FUTURE 0 · sector 44
PAST 100 · sector 42
HEALTH 97 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 62 · sector 54

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 ¥49.60 ¥96.76 +95%
AIA Group 1299 HK$75.55 HK$7.88 -90%
Manulife Financial Corporation MFC C$58.52 C$45.13 -23%
Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO C$92.34 C$59.64 -35%
Life Insurance Corporation LICI ₹438.30 ₹590.43 +35%
Fubon Financial Holding 2881 124.50 TWD 115.05 TWD -8%
Cathay Financial Holding 2882 94.00 TWD 94.95 TWD +1%
Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 337,500 KRW 166,710 KRW -51%
China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 ¥29.75 ¥59.50 +100%
Prudential plc PUKN 545.00 MXN 722.72 MXN +33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Life Insurance Company (2628) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$55.40 versus a price of HK$29.04, about +91% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2628?
Our model-based fair value for China Life Insurance Company is HK$55.40 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$29.04.
What is the quality score of 2628?
China Life Insurance Company has a Quality Score of 65/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Life Insurance Company (2628)?
China Life Insurance Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$342B (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2628?
The net profit margin of China Life Insurance Company is about 42.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 42.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Life Insurance Company pay a dividend?
China Life Insurance Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.06% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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