Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd HK$4.93, price HK$14.30, upside -65.5%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
9‑month range HK$14.30 – HK$65.85 · fair‑value band HK$4.28 – HK$6.68 · the HK$14.30 price screens above the HK$4.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Guoxia Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of energy storage system solutions and products to the energy storage industry in Chinese mainland, Europe, Africa, and internationally.
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Guoxia Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of energy storage system solutions and products to the energy storage industry in Chinese mainland, Europe, Africa, and internationally. It also provides power plant solutions, such as zero-carbon park, independent energy storage, and source network load storage; and pan-microgrid solutions, including home energy management, optical storage and charging/diesel, and AIDC. In addition, it offers general mechanical equipment installation, and other services, as well as trades in energy storage products and systems. The company was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Wuxi, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655) currently trades at HK$14.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.93, 65.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$10.27 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$14.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.61, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$4.28 (bear) to HK$6.68 (bull), the price of HK$14.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Guoxia Tech Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 142M CNY in FY2022, a compound +143.9%/yr. Reported net income was 103M CNY in FY2025, compounding +61.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$7.3B (≈ $933M) · P/E ratio 60.0 · P/S ratio 3.00 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0600 · Net margin 5.0% · Return on equity 16.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8% · Operating margin 9.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −66%, 2655 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$4.28Fair Value HK$4.93Bull HK$6.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0450 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+100.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+143.9%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+67.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+67.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 7%
2025 sits 262% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+51.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +48.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 203 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−65.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth46.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)60.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.94× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.04× · Pricier than median
P/FCF127.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA37.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)66· sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 45
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guoxia Tech Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2655
Frequently asked questions
Is Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.93 versus a price of HK$14.30, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2655?
Our model-based fair value for Guoxia Tech Co Ltd is HK$4.93 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$14.30.
What is the quality score of 2655?
Guoxia Tech Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.93 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$4.28, optimistic scenario HK$6.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guoxia Tech Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.93, about −66% upside versus a price of HK$14.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$4.28, optimistic scenario HK$6.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
Guoxia Tech Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guoxia Tech Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +51.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +143.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2655 use?
Our models discount Guoxia Tech Co Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guoxia Tech Co Ltd that is +51.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Guoxia Tech Co Ltd grew +143.9 % a year. The price currently implies +51.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (+51.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.79 %: that much free cash flow Guoxia Tech Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guoxia Tech Co Ltd it is HK$4.93 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$14.30. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guoxia Tech Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2655 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$14.30, fair value HK$4.93, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2655?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$14.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.93). For Guoxia Tech Co Ltd the two are HK$9.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guoxia Tech Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guoxia Tech Co Ltd at about HK$7.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$14.30; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2655?
Our models span a range for Guoxia Tech Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$4.28, base HK$4.93, optimistic HK$6.68 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$14.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2655?
Guoxia Tech Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 60.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.9, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 37.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 16.5%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Guoxia Tech Co Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Fortum Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guoxia Tech Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$14.30, calculated fair value HK$4.93 (−66%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2655 calculated?
We run Guoxia Tech Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Guoxia Tech Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$14.30. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.93, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guoxia Tech Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$6.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
The market capitalisation of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd is HK$7.3B (≈ $933M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd is 3.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
Earnings per share at Guoxia Tech Co Ltd are HK$0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 60.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
The net margin of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd is 5.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd is 10.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
The operating margin of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
Revenue at Guoxia Tech Co Ltd is growing +46.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +144%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655)?
Earnings per share at Guoxia Tech Co Ltd are growing −11.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guoxia Tech Co Ltd (2655) carry?
The net debt of Guoxia Tech Co Ltd is 249M CNY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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