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Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc (2696) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$37.6B

SH Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc 2696 · HK
PriceHK$67.30
Fair ValueHK$31.51
Upside-53.2%
Quality58/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 12.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Moderate moat 56/100
Evidence: High Range HK$21.88 – HK$40.40 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +6.0% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$40.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$21.88 to HK$40.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$88.70 HK$9.70 Fair Value HK$31.51 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$9.70 – HK$88.70 · fair‑value band HK$21.88 – HK$40.40 · the HK$67.30 price screens above the HK$31.51 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc (2696) currently trades at HK$67.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$31.51, implying the stock looks roughly 53.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc generated revenue of HK$6.7B at a net margin of 12.4%. Revenue grew 29.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.7%. Net debt stands at HK$2.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$21.88 (bear case) to HK$40.40 (bull case); at HK$67.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -53%, 2696 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$23.87 HK$48.43 HK$88.67 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$19.07 HK$34.23 HK$66.00 74
ROIC Compounder HK$16.27 HK$24.68 HK$31.12 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$25.45 HK$40.65 HK$89.07 38
Owner Earnings HK$25.41 HK$59.18 HK$130.07 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$17.22 HK$29.78 HK$56.00 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$24.14 HK$43.78 HK$82.30 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$24.59 HK$56.12 HK$99.07 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$19.32 HK$41.83 HK$55.55 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$24.99 HK$56.74 HK$112.00 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$25.32 HK$57.69 HK$110.87 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$10.03 HK$69.98 HK$98.21 54
Lynch FV HK$36.15 HK$51.65 HK$67.14 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$36.15 HK$51.65 HK$67.14 46
EPV HK$11.77 HK$13.91 HK$15.78 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$24.35 HK$32.47 HK$40.58 63
P/S Multiple HK$18.82 HK$25.09 HK$31.36 58
P/B Multiple HK$18.82 HK$25.09 HK$31.36 55
EV/EBIT HK$18.03 HK$24.39 HK$30.75 53
EV/EBITDA HK$22.70 HK$30.62 HK$38.54 54
EV/Revenue HK$12.56 HK$18.40 HK$24.24 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.63 HK$4.86 HK$7.26 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$23.87 HK$48.43 HK$88.67 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$19.07 HK$34.23 HK$66.00 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$9.88 HK$13.18 HK$59.25 61
ROIC Compounder HK$16.27 HK$24.68 HK$31.12 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$47.99 HK$68.56 HK$89.13 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$68.56) versus Asset-Based (HK$4.86). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$6.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) +29.2%
Net margin 12.4%
Return on equity 23.7%
Free cash flow HK$860M FY2025
P/E ratio 39.6 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 9.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.7200
EPS growth (YoY) -1.1%
Net debt HK$2.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 57
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 43
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc. engages in the research and development of biologic medicines with a focus on oncology, autoimmune diseases, and ophthalmic diseases.

Full company description

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc. engages in the research and development of biologic medicines with a focus on oncology, autoimmune diseases, and ophthalmic diseases. It offers HANLIKANG, a rituximab injection for treating active glomerulonephritis; HANQUYOU, a trastuzumab injection to treat breast and metastatic breast, and gastric cancer; HANDAYUAN, an adalimumab injection for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, psoriasis, uveitis, polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis, pediatric plaque psoriasis, Crohn's disease, and pediatric Crohn's disease; and HANBEITAI, a bevacizumab injection to treat metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) and recurrent non-small cell lung cancer. The company also develops HANSIZHUANG, a serplulimab injection to treat colorectal cancer, gastric carcinoma, and limited-stage small cell lung cancer; HLX04-O, an anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody injection for wet age-related macular degeneration; HLX22 to treat of metastatic gastroesophageal junction cancer and gastric cancer; HLX6018 to treat idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis; HLX22, HLX42, HLX43, and HLX53 to treat solid tumors; HLX11 to treat breast cancer; HLX14 to treat osteoporosis; and HLX15 for multiple myeloma. The company operates in Mainland China, the Asia Pacific, North and South America, Europe, and Oceania. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China. Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Development Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc reported revenue of HK$6.7B in FY2025 versus HK$1.7B in FY2021, a compound +41.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$806M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$6.7B
Latest YoY
+16.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+27.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+62.5%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+93.5%
Revenue +41.1%/yr
FY21 HK$1.7B
FY22 HK$3.2B
FY23 HK$5.4B
FY24 HK$5.7B
FY25 HK$6.7B
Net income
FY21 −HK$984M
FY22 −HK$695M
FY23 HK$546M
FY24 HK$820M
FY25 HK$806M

2696 screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc · Fair Value
HK$31.51 −53%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2696

Peer Group

Biotechnology · 605 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −53% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth 29% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.34× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 39.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 9.48× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 5.64× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 5.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 32.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 95 · sector 0
HEALTH 83 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $525.73 $278.78 -47%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $797.99 $594.40 -26%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,549,000 KRW 1,055,793 KRW -32%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 202,000 KRW 74,519 KRW -63%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$45.70 HK$30.58 -33%
Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 HK$95.55 HK$19.68 -79%
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 2,037 kr 250.07 -88%
Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 HK$4.87 HK$3.37 -31%
RemeGen Co 688331 ¥131.87 ¥23.19 -82%
ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 314,000 KRW 39,476 KRW -87%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc (2696) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$31.51 versus a price of HK$67.30, about −53% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2696?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc is HK$31.51 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$67.30.
What is the quality score of 2696?
Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc (2696)?
Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$6.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2696?
The net profit margin of Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc is about 12.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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