Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd TWD 17.45, price TWD 27.75, upside -37.1%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 11.57 TWD – 31.77 TWD · fair‑value band 16.07 TWD – 23.11 TWD · the 27.75 TWD price screens above the 17.45 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Chang Hwa Commercial Bank, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking products and services in Taiwan and internationally.
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Chang Hwa Commercial Bank, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking products and services in Taiwan and internationally. The company offers deposit products, including checking, demand, time, omnibus, and savings deposits, as well as foreign services, including currency deposit, negotiable certificates of deposit; remittances; and credit and debit cards. It also provides insurance products and syndicated loans, as well as short-term, mid-term, and long-term loans. In addition, the company offers foreign exchange, funds, and wealth management services; trust and international banking services; internet, telephone, and mobile banking services; and securities underwriting, financing, and brokerage services. Further, it invests in government, financial, and corporate bonds. The company was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) currently trades at 27.75 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17.45 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 59.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 19.64 TWD per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 27.75 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 7.94 TWD, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 16.07 TWD (bear) to 23.11 TWD (bull), the price of 27.75 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd reported revenue of 98.5B TWD in FY2025 versus 35.7B TWD in FY2021, a compound +28.8%/yr. Reported net income was 17.8B TWD in FY2025, compounding +19.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 327B TWD (≈ $10.3B) · P/E ratio 18.5 · P/S ratio 3.34 · EPS (TTM) 1.50 TWD · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 18.1% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −37%, 2801 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 16.07 TWDFair Value 17.45 TWDBull 23.11 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.5121 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+16.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 21%
Compare Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−37% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)43% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)53% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)18.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.49× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)7.48× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.88× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)70· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)35· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)58· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2801
Frequently asked questions
Is Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 17.45 TWD versus a price of 27.75 TWD, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2801?
Our model-based fair value for Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 17.45 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 27.75 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2801?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 17.45 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 16.07 TWD, optimistic scenario 23.11 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 17.45 TWD, about −37% upside versus a price of 27.75 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 16.07 TWD, optimistic scenario 23.11 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 43.8B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd pay a dividend?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.88% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd it is 17.45 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 27.75 TWD. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2801 trades above its calculated fair value: price 27.75 TWD, fair value 17.45 TWD, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2801?
No. The price is what the market pays today (27.75 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (17.45 TWD). For Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd the two are 10.30 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd worth?
The market values Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd at about 327B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 27.75 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 17.45 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2801?
Our models span a range for Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd: cautious scenario 16.07 TWD, base 17.45 TWD, optimistic 23.11 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 27.75 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2801?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 17.45 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 1.5, P/S 7.5, EV/EBITDA 9.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 2801?
The PEG ratio of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 2.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.7%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2801 from its 52-week high?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd trades at 27.75 TWD, about 13% below its 52-week high of 31.77 TWD and 50% above the low of 18.45 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 17.45 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 27.75 TWD, calculated fair value 17.45 TWD (−37%), Quality Score 35/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2801 calculated?
We run Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 17.45 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 27.75 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 17.45 TWD, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (23.11 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) come from?
Earnings per share at Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd grew +2.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.3 %, EBIT margin −2.3 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The market capitalisation of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 327B TWD (≈ $10.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 3.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Earnings per share at Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd are 1.50 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The dividend yield of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 2.9% (payout 53.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The net margin of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 18.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The operating margin of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 53.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Revenue at Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is growing +14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Earnings per share at Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd are growing +25.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) generate?
The free cash flow of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is −34.7B TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) hold?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd holds more cash than debt, 133B TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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