Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd stock TWD 16.70, price TWD 27.90, that is 40.1% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 11.57 TWD – 31.77 TWD · fair‑value band 15.52 TWD – 19.37 TWD · the 27.90 TWD price screens above the 16.70 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Chang Hwa Commercial Bank, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking products and services in Taiwan and internationally.
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The company offers deposit products, including checking, demand, time, omnibus, and savings deposits, as well as foreign services, including currency deposit, negotiable certificates of deposit; remittances; and credit and debit cards.
It also provides insurance products and syndicated loans, as well as short-term, mid-term, and long-term loans.
In addition, the company offers foreign exchange, funds, and wealth management services; trust and international banking services; internet, telephone, and mobile banking services; and securities underwriting, financing, and brokerage services.
Further, it invests in government, financial, and corporate bonds. The company was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) currently trades at 27.90 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.70 TWD, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 22.31 TWD per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 27.90 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 8.67 TWD, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 15.52 TWD (bear) to 19.37 TWD (bull), the price of 27.90 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd reported revenue of 98.5B TWD in FY2025 versus 35.7B TWD in FY2021, a compound +28.8%/yr. Reported net income was 17.8B TWD in FY2025, compounding +19.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 346B TWD (≈ $10.6B) Large · P/E ratio 17.9 · P/S ratio 7.62 · EPS (TTM) 1.56 TWD · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 44.0% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −40%, 2801 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear15.52 TWDFair Value 16.70 TWDBull19.37 TWD
Price 27.90 TWD · Downside -40.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.6659 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+16.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.3% vs 3.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 21%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (3 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−40.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.3% · Below median
Return on assets0.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)44.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)54.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.57× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)7.62× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.0× · Pricier than median
PEG2.88× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)68· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)37· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)56· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2801
Frequently asked questions
Is Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.70 TWD versus a price of 27.90 TWD, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2801?
Our model-based fair value for Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 16.70 TWD (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 27.90 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2801?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.70 TWD (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 15.52 TWD, optimistic scenario 19.37 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.70 TWD, about 40% lower versus a price of 27.90 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 15.52 TWD, optimistic scenario 19.37 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 45.4B TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd pay a dividend?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.80% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd pays a dividend of 0.781 TWD per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 5, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2007. The payout ratio is 50.1% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd it is 16.70 TWD per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 27.90 TWD. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 2801 trades above its calculated fair value: price 27.90 TWD, fair value 16.70 TWD, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2801?
No. The price is what the market pays today (27.90 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.70 TWD). For Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd the two are 11.20 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd worth?
The market values Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd at about 346B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 27.90 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 16.70 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2801?
Our models span a range for Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd: cautious scenario 15.52 TWD, base 16.70 TWD, optimistic 19.37 TWD per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 27.90 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2801?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16.70 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 1.6, P/S 7.6, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 2801?
The PEG ratio of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 2.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2801 from its 52-week high?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd trades at 27.90 TWD, about 10% below its 52-week high of 30.85 TWD and 49% above the low of 18.69 TWD (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.70 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 27.90 TWD, calculated fair value 16.70 TWD (−40%), Quality Score 37/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2801 calculated?
We run Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 16.70 TWD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 27.90 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 16.70 TWD, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (19.37 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) come from?
Earnings per share at Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd grew +2.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.3 %, EBIT margin −2.3 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The market capitalisation of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 346B TWD (≈ $10.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 7.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Earnings per share at Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd are 1.56 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The dividend yield of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 2.8% (payout 50.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The net margin of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 44.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
The operating margin of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is 54.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Revenue at Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is growing +13.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801)?
Earnings per share at Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd are growing +22.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) generate?
The free cash flow of Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd is −34.7B TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd (2801) hold?
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd holds more cash than debt, 133B TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026