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Union Bank of Taiwan (2838) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Union Bank of Taiwan TWD 19.55, price TWD 20.20, upside -3.2%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · TW · ISIN TW0002838000

UB Thin data Sep 30, 2026

Union Bank of Taiwan

2838 · TW

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

Highly profitable · 31.7% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Wide moat 65/100
Fair value 19.55 TWD · Fairly valued (−3.2%)
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.0 %/yr in TWD)
2.1% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Quality 30/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (5/14)
Thin data

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

24.70 TWD 10.98 TWD Fair Value 19.55 TWD May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 10.98 TWD – 24.70 TWD · fair‑value band 14.66 TWD – 24.43 TWD · the 20.20 TWD price screens above the 19.55 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

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Company profile

Union Bank of Taiwan provides various banking products and services. It operates through Corporate Banking Unit, Consumer Banking Unit, Wealth Management and Trust Unit, Investing Unit, and Leasing Unit segments.

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Union Bank of Taiwan provides various banking products and services. It operates through Corporate Banking Unit, Consumer Banking Unit, Wealth Management and Trust Unit, Investing Unit, and Leasing Unit segments. The company accepts deposit products, loans, remittances, acceptances, issuance of guarantees and letters of credit, short-term bills transactions, foreign exchange transactions, savings, and trusts. It also provides corporate loans, discount bills and notes, domestic letters of credit and conduct accounts receivable factoring, mortgages, auto loans, personal loans, and other consumer credit; credit card services; and wealth management, trust, custodian business, safe-deposit box rental, and certification services for marketable securities. In addition, the company engages in handling of exports, imports, foreign remittances, foreign currency loans, and guarantees; trades in marketable securities and futures on behalf of customers; and acts as collecting and paying agent for public facilities fees, taxes, and remittances, as well as operates as a property insurance agency. Further, the company involved in the retail and distribution of hardware and software products; development of system programs; system development outsourcing; website designing; e-commerce activities; car rental; import and export financing; securities investment trust; and installment, leasing, and accounts receivable factoring businesses. Additionally, it engages in sale, purchase, and leasing of real estate; venture capital; general business investment; installment sale and purchase; investment leasing business; general and investment management consulting; investment and management of private equity fund; and power generation, transmission, distribution, and energy technology service business; and equipment leasing activities. Union Bank of Taiwan was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.

Stock analysis

Union Bank of Taiwan (2838) currently trades at 20.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 19.55 TWD, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.3%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 17.19 TWD per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the 20.20 TWD price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 12.42 TWD, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 14.66 TWD (bear) to 24.43 TWD (bull), the price of 20.20 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Union Bank of Taiwan reported revenue of 7.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 19.6B TWD in FY2021, a compound −22.1%/yr. Reported net income was 6.1B TWD in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 95.2B TWD (≈ $3.0B) · P/E ratio 16.6 · P/S ratio 13.9 · EPS (TTM) 1.22 TWD · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 83.9% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −3%, 2838 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 14.66 TWD Fair Value 19.55 TWD Bull 24.43 TWD
Price 20.20 TWD · Upside -3.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.6008 TWD per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 15.03 TWD 15.84 TWD 17.29 TWD 76
P/E Multiple 12.89 TWD 17.19 TWD 21.48 TWD 63
P/B Multiple 16.86 TWD 22.47 TWD 28.09 TWD 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple 12.89 TWD 17.19 TWD 21.48 TWD 63
P/B Multiple 16.86 TWD 22.47 TWD 28.09 TWD 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 9.27 TWD 12.42 TWD 18.54 TWD 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 15.03 TWD 15.84 TWD 17.29 TWD 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 34
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 43
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 27
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.1% vs 5.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 100%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1059 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −3.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7.6% · Below median
Return on assets 0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 31.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 35.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 9.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.12× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.12× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 4.71× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 17.13× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)29 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)48 · sector 50
PAST (return on equity)30 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)94 · sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)43 · sector 52

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €79.53 €77.12 −3%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.05 $6.82 −38%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.38 €4.06 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.54 €105.99 +16%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹721.20 ₹406.44 −44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 63.15 SAR 36.95 SAR −41%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €12.03 €8.46 −30%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Union Bank of Taiwan Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2838

Frequently asked questions

Is Union Bank of Taiwan (2838) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 19.55 TWD versus a price of 20.20 TWD, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 2838?
Our model-based fair value for Union Bank of Taiwan is 19.55 TWD (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 20.20 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2838?
Union Bank of Taiwan has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 19.55 TWD (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 14.66 TWD, optimistic scenario 24.43 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Union Bank of Taiwan stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 19.55 TWD, about −3% upside versus a price of 20.20 TWD (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 14.66 TWD, optimistic scenario 24.43 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
Union Bank of Taiwan reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 20.2B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Union Bank of Taiwan pay a dividend?
Union Bank of Taiwan currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Union Bank of Taiwan it is 19.55 TWD per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of 20.20 TWD. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Union Bank of Taiwan stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 2838 trades above its calculated fair value: price 20.20 TWD, fair value 19.55 TWD, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2838?
No. The price is what the market pays today (20.20 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (19.55 TWD). For Union Bank of Taiwan the two are 0.6500 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Union Bank of Taiwan worth?
The market values Union Bank of Taiwan at about 95.2B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is 20.20 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 19.55 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2838?
Our models span a range for Union Bank of Taiwan: cautious scenario 14.66 TWD, base 19.55 TWD, optimistic 24.43 TWD per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price 20.20 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2838?
Union Bank of Taiwan trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 19.55 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 17.1, P/B 1.1, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 2838?
The PEG ratio of Union Bank of Taiwan is 17.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 30, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
Balance-sheet figures for Union Bank of Taiwan (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2838 from its 52-week high?
Union Bank of Taiwan trades at 20.20 TWD, about 18% below its 52-week high of 24.70 TWD and 10% above the low of 18.30 TWD (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 19.55 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Union Bank of Taiwan?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Union Bank of Taiwan stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price 20.20 TWD, calculated fair value 19.55 TWD (−3%), Quality Score 30/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2838 calculated?
We run Union Bank of Taiwan through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 19.55 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Union Bank of Taiwan itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was 20.20 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 19.55 TWD, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Union Bank of Taiwan right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838) come from?
Earnings per share at Union Bank of Taiwan grew +6.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.1 %, EBIT margin +1.5 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Union Bank of Taiwan

How large is the market capitalisation of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
The market capitalisation of Union Bank of Taiwan is 95.2B TWD (≈ $3.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Union Bank of Taiwan is 13.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
Earnings per share at Union Bank of Taiwan are 1.22 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
The dividend yield of Union Bank of Taiwan is 2.1% (payout 35.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
The net margin of Union Bank of Taiwan is 83.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Union Bank of Taiwan is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Union Bank of Taiwan is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
The operating margin of Union Bank of Taiwan is 35.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
Revenue at Union Bank of Taiwan is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −31.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Union Bank of Taiwan (2838)?
Earnings per share at Union Bank of Taiwan are growing +24.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Union Bank of Taiwan (2838) generate?
The free cash flow of Union Bank of Taiwan is −12.2B TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Union Bank of Taiwan (2838) carry?
The net debt of Union Bank of Taiwan is 69.1B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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