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Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Cosmo Energy Holdings €36.48, price €23.00, upside +58.6%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · DE · Home Japan · ISIN JP3298000005

In Frankfurt, only 3 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.

CE Broad data Sep 30, 2026

Cosmo Energy Holdings

2LW · F

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value €36.48 · Strongly undervalued (+58.6%)
✓Quality 62/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −1.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.6% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Ranks above peers (11/14)
!Moderate moat 59/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€26.00 €6.65 Fair Value €36.48 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €6.65 – €26.00 · fair‑value band €27.36 – €48.01 · the €23.00 price screens below the €36.48 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

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Company profile

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the petroleum business in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Petroleum, Petrochemical, Oil Exploration and Production, and Renewable Energy.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the petroleum business in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Petroleum, Petrochemical, Oil Exploration and Production, and Renewable Energy. The Petroleum segment produces and sells gasoline, naphtha, kerosene, diesel, fuel oil, crude oil, lubricating oil, liquefied petroleum gas, and asphalt. The Petrochemical segment produces and sells ethylene, mixed xylene, and petrochemical solvents. The Oil Exploration and Production segment develops, produces, and sells crude oil. The Renewable Energy segment supplies and sells electricity generated by wind power. It is also involved in planning in the energy exploration and production business; imports and exports, refining, storage, and sales of crude oil and petroleum products, etc.; sells oil products; vehicle leasing and low-carbon solutions; marine transportation and shipping agency business. In addition, the company engages in the provision of oil storage, receiving, shipping works; manufacture, storage, transport, sale, import, and export of LP gas; oil receiving and shipping; waste incineration management, experiment, inspection, guard and security; distribution terminal, port, operation of service stations; electricity retailing; accounting, finance, purchasing, general affairs, and human resources related business outsourcing services; wind power generation business; engineering, construction and maintenance for industrial facilities; and general trading. Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.

Stock analysis

Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW) currently trades at €23.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €36.48, implying the stock looks roughly 37.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €51.54 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the €23.00 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €9.29, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €27.36 (bear) to €48.01 (bull), the price of €23.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Cosmo Energy Holdings reported revenue of ¥2.7T in FY2026 versus ¥2.4T in FY2022, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥74.0B in FY2026, compounding −14.6%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap €3.7B · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 0.25 · EPS (TTM) €2.51 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 22.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 59%, 2LW screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €27.36 Fair Value €36.48 Bull €48.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €36.17 €50.41 €75.97 77
Growth DCF €37.82 €51.54 €74.26 75
Residual Income €19.92 €22.68 €27.66 73
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €36.17 €50.41 €75.97 77
Owner Earnings €9.41 €13.86 €21.85 72
5Y Revenue Exit €38.57 €58.48 €87.43 69
5Y EBITDA Exit €29.48 €42.75 €60.33 72
5Y P/E Exit €26.98 €38.42 €52.17 68
10Y Revenue Exit €36.13 €50.62 €66.22 65
10Y EBITDA Exit €31.91 €41.11 €50.68 67
10Y P/E Exit €30.43 €38.49 €45.99 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €17.88 €21.85 €24.58 65
EPV €34.18 €40.01 €45.04 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €8.52 €9.29 €10.45 67
DDM Multi-Stage €8.52 €10.53 €13.27 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple €27.60 €36.80 €46.01 63
P/S Multiple €33.52 €44.69 €55.86 58
P/B Multiple €29.07 €38.75 €48.44 55
EV/EBIT €35.82 €48.67 €61.53 66
EV/EBITDA €29.72 €40.54 €51.36 67
EV/Revenue €44.05 €64.10 €84.16 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €10.76 €14.43 €21.53 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €37.82 €51.54 €74.26 75
Rev-Margin DCF €38.57 €59.42 €84.89 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income €19.92 €22.68 €27.66 73
ROIC Compounder €34.18 €41.51 €49.03 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €19.86 €28.37 €36.88 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 5%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
0.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.5% a year for the price and −2.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+13.8%
Forecast 2028 (sales)−4.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)−3.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)−2.8%
Projected 2031 (sales)−2.0%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 45 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside +54.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 22.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 16.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 17.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.40× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.10× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.24× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 5.8× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 2.3× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)87 · sector 98
PAST (return on equity)91 · sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)80 · sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)73 · sector 70

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 25.28 SAR 20.14 SAR −20%
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $162.75 $90.40 −44%
Chevron Corporation CVX $204.38 $92.05 −55%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥11.21 ¥15.47 +38%
TotalEnergies SE TTE €74.51 €70.97 −5%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PBR $20.37 $28.71 +41%
Equinor ASA EQNR kr 398.40 kr 345.87 −13%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.28 ¥3.74 −29%
Suncor Energy Inc SU $67.87 $70.17 +3%
Imperial Oil Limited IMO $122.34 $94.61 −23%

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Cosmo Energy Holdings · Fair Value
€36.48 +37%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cosmo Energy Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2LW

Frequently asked questions

Is Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €36.48 versus a price of €23.00, about +59% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2LW?
Our model-based fair value for Cosmo Energy Holdings is €36.48 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €23.00.
What is the quality score of 2LW?
Cosmo Energy Holdings has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €36.48 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €27.36, optimistic scenario €48.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cosmo Energy Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €36.48, about +59% upside versus a price of €23.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €27.36, optimistic scenario €48.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
Cosmo Energy Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.8T (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Cosmo Energy Holdings pay a dividend?
Cosmo Energy Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.63% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cosmo Energy Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -4.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +2.4 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2LW use?
Our models discount Cosmo Energy Holdings at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cosmo Energy Holdings that is -4.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Cosmo Energy Holdings grew +2.4 % a year. The price currently implies -4.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cosmo Energy Holdings (-4.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.62 %: that much free cash flow Cosmo Energy Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cosmo Energy Holdings it is €36.48 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €23.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cosmo Energy Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 2LW trades below its calculated fair value: price €23.00, fair value €36.48, a gap of about +59% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2LW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€23.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€36.48). For Cosmo Energy Holdings the two are €13.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cosmo Energy Holdings worth?
The market values Cosmo Energy Holdings at about €3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €23.00; our models calculate a fair value of €36.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2LW?
Our models span a range for Cosmo Energy Holdings: cautious scenario €27.36, base €36.48, optimistic €48.01 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €23.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2LW?
Cosmo Energy Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €36.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 2.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cosmo Energy Holdings (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 22.8%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2LW from its 52-week high?
Cosmo Energy Holdings trades at €23.00, about 12% below its 52-week high of €26.00 and 24% above the low of €18.50 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €36.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cosmo Energy Holdings?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cosmo Energy Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €23.00, calculated fair value €36.48 (+59%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2LW calculated?
We run Cosmo Energy Holdings through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €36.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Cosmo Energy Holdings currently trades 37 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €23.00. Our model-based fair value is €36.48, about +59% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cosmo Energy Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€27.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Cosmo Energy Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
The market capitalisation of Cosmo Energy Holdings is €3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cosmo Energy Holdings is 0.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
Earnings per share at Cosmo Energy Holdings are €2.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
The dividend yield of Cosmo Energy Holdings is 3.6% (payout 33.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
The net margin of Cosmo Energy Holdings is 2.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cosmo Energy Holdings is 22.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cosmo Energy Holdings is 7.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
The operating margin of Cosmo Energy Holdings is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
Revenue at Cosmo Energy Holdings is growing +17.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW)?
Earnings per share at Cosmo Energy Holdings are growing +182% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cosmo Energy Holdings (2LW) carry?
The net debt of Cosmo Energy Holdings is ¥431B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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