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Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst stock ¥0.24, price ¥2.47, upside -90.4%, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials CN · ISIN CNE100000YS7

XM Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst logo Thin data Oct 28, 2026

Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst

300159 · SHE
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 90% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 33.6% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Revenue last quarter +44% vs. a year ago.
Moderate moat 45/100
Fair value ¥0.2380 · Strongly overvalued (−90.4%)
Quality 36/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.2 %/yr in CNY)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/13)
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥8.18 ¥1.53 Fair Value ¥0.2380 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥1.53 – ¥8.18 · fair‑value band ¥0.1785 – ¥0.2890 · the ¥2.47 price screens above the ¥0.2380 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Xinjiang Machinery Research Institute Co., Ltd. engages in the research, design, manufacture, and sale of agricultural and animal husbandry machinery under the Mushen brand in China.

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The company offers corn, silage, chili, and tillage machines; raisin equipment comprising belt hoist, classifier, bubble cleaner, raisin rough processing line, continuous centrifugal machine, oil mixer, replacement sieve machine, bucket elevator, gravity stoner and selection machine, and raisin finishing production line; corn harvesters, forage harvesters, pepper harvesters, and farming machinery; power rotary harrows; special forestry and fruit machinery, and agricultural and sideline product processing machinery; and export parts.

It also offers aircraft structural parts, including frames, beams, ribs, panels, skins, stringers, corner pieces, shafts, etc.; aerospace vehicle structural parts, such as sheet metal parts, support rings, air inlets, nozzles, load-bearing parts, rudder components, wing components, body compartments, steering gear compartments, fairings, liquid oxygen engine parts, liquid hydrogen engine parts, turning section, straight section, etc.; and engine and gas turbine structural components, including combustion chamber casing, flame tube, external casing, intermediate casing, afterburner nozzle, blisk, blade, power turbine outer casing, steerable guide casing, nozzle, etc.

The company offers aerospace products for military aircraft main engine factories, civil passenger aircraft sub-manufacturing factories, aero-engine manufacturing factories, and scientific research institutes.

In addition, it engages in the supply and marketing of aluminum and steel products; smelting and rolling processing of non-ferrous metal; wholesale and retail trade; engineering and technology research and experimental development; and provision of science and technology promotion and application services.

The company was founded in 1960 and is based in Urumqi, China.

Stock analysis

Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159) currently trades at ¥2.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.2380, 90.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥1.53 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the ¥2.47 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.0500, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥0.1785 (bear) to ¥0.2890 (bull), the price of ¥2.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst reported revenue of 638M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −17.3%/yr. Reported net income was 43.1M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 8.1B CNY (≈ $1.2B) Small · P/E ratio 19.0 · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1300 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 6.8% · Return on equity 20.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −90%, 300159 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0500 to ¥3.47). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥0.1785 Fair Value ¥0.2380 Bull ¥0.2890
Price ¥2.47 · Upside -90.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1076 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings ¥1.30 ¥1.53 ¥1.80 78
Residual Income ¥0.5100 ¥0.4700 ¥0.4500 76
Gordon GGM ¥0.0500 ¥0.0800 ¥0.1000 69
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥1.30 ¥1.53 ¥1.80 78
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.0900 ¥0.2100 ¥0.2700 65
PEG = 1.0 ¥0.0400 ¥0.0500 ¥0.0700 57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.0500 ¥0.0800 ¥0.1000 69
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.0500 ¥0.0700 ¥0.0900 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥0.2100 ¥0.2800 ¥0.3400 63
P/S Multiple ¥0.1700 ¥0.2200 ¥0.2800 58
P/B Multiple ¥2.60 ¥3.47 ¥4.34 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.3200 ¥0.4900 ¥0.6100 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥0.5100 ¥0.4700 ¥0.4500 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥0.1600 ¥0.2200 ¥0.2900 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 17
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 91
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 53
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 45
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 28
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 11
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.6% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−36.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−36.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−73% → −22%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

300159 screens overvalued: fair value 90% below the price. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 146 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −90.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 20.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 33.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −30.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 43.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.20× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 19.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.05× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 11.54× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.51× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 54
PAST (return on equity)81 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)6 · sector 39

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 ¥7.07 ¥14.52 +105% vs 300159
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 HK$32.78 HK$57.82 +76% vs 300159
Daimler Truck Holding DTG €40.24 €49.77 +24% vs 300159
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 ¥18.07 ¥20.84 +15% vs 300159
PACCAR Inc PCAR $103.73 $114.10 +10% vs 300159
Metso Oyj METSO €17.05 €18.76 +10% vs 300159
Traton SE 8TRA €32.00 €32.85 +3% vs 300159
CNH Industrial N.V CNH $11.14 $8.65 −22% vs 300159
Caterpillar Inc CAT $692.13 $308.45 −55% vs 300159
Deere & Company DE $641.25 $263.46 −59% vs 300159

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Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst · Fair Value
¥0.2380 −90%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300159

Frequently asked questions

Is Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.2380 versus a price of ¥2.47, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300159?
Our model-based fair value for Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst is ¥0.2380 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥2.47.
What is the quality score of 300159?
Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.2380 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.1785, optimistic scenario ¥0.2890. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.2380, about −90% upside versus a price of ¥2.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.1785, optimistic scenario ¥0.2890. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 707M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst pay a dividend?
Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst currently shows a dividend yield of 0.31% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst it is ¥0.2380 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of ¥2.47. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 300159 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥2.47, fair value ¥0.2380, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300159?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥2.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.2380). For Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst the two are ¥2.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst worth?
The market values Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst at about 8.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is ¥2.47; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.2380 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300159?
Our models span a range for Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst: cautious scenario ¥0.1785, base ¥0.2380, optimistic ¥0.2890 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price ¥2.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300159?
Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.0 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥0.2380 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 43.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 3.1, P/S 11.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 300159?
The PEG ratio of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst is 0.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 28, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 20.2%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300159 from its 52-week high?
Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst trades at ¥2.47, about 43% below its 52-week high of ¥4.33 and at the low of ¥2.47 (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.2380 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price ¥2.47, calculated fair value ¥0.2380 (−90%), Quality Score 36/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300159 calculated?
We run Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.2380, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was ¥2.47. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.2380, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.2890). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst

How large is the market capitalisation of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
The market capitalisation of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst is 8.1B CNY (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst is 1.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
Earnings per share at Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst are ¥0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
The dividend yield of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst is 0.3% (payout 5.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
The net margin of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst is 6.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst is 20.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst is −4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
The operating margin of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst is −30.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
Revenue at Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst is growing +43.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −33.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159)?
Earnings per share at Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst are growing −55.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159) generate?
The free cash flow of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst is −133M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst (300159) carry?
The net debt of Xinjiang Machinery Research Inst is 762M CNY (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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