Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co (300616) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 2.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026 — revised from ¥53.03 to ¥2.35 (−95.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −26.0% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range ¥10.42 – ¥18.25 · fair‑value band ¥0.6000 – ¥4.11 · the ¥10.49 price screens above the ¥2.35 fair value. As of Jul 9, 2026.
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Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co (300616) currently trades at ¥10.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.35 — implying the stock looks roughly 77.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co generated revenue of 3.6B CNY at a net margin of -7.0%. Revenue declined 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.8%. Net debt stands at 1.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.6000 (bear case) to ¥4.11 (bull case); at ¥10.49, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside — at -78%, 300616 screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells customized whole-house panel furniture in China and internationally. The company offers wardrobes, cabinets, bookcases, TV cabinets, beds, and other whole-house panel-style customized furniture products; and supporting home products, prefabricated background walls, soft furnishings, electrical appliances, and other home products. It also provides home software and information services, including information systems and software tools used for space design, such as decoration, furniture, and home product design; and online marketing services. In addition, the company engages in software development; management consulting; and investing activities. It offers its products through directly-operated stores and franchised stores, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Guangzhou Shangpin Zhaipei Household Products Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guangzhou Shangpin Home …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co reported revenue of ¥3.6B in FY2025 versus ¥7.3B in FY2021, a compound −16.5%/yr. Reported net income was −¥248M in FY2025.
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Similar stocks
10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midea Group 000333 | ¥83.90 | ¥123.44 | +47% |
| Haier Smart Home Co QIHCF | $2.42 | $4.20 | +74% |
| Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 | ¥36.99 | ¥104.21 | +182% |
| Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co 603268 | ¥152.20 | ¥38.95 | -74% |
| SharkNinja, Inc SN | $138.56 | $92.55 | -33% |
| King Slide Works Co 2059 | 6,400 TWD | 3,425 TWD | -46% |
| Somnigroup International Inc SGI | $68.01 | $58.62 | -14% |
| Nitori Holdings NCLTF | $15.49 | $21.68 | +40% |
| Mohawk Industries, Inc M1HK34 | R$20.38 | R$18.31 | -10% |
| Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 | ¥26.90 | ¥75.77 | +182% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.