Somnigroup International Inc (SGI) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $15.4B
Somnigroup International Inc
SGI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −13.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 58% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($19.79 to $42.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.57 – $97.54 · fair‑value band $19.79 – $42.00 · the $64.87 price screens above the $27.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Somnigroup International Inc (SGI) currently trades at $64.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.03, implying the stock looks roughly 58.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Somnigroup International Inc generated revenue of $7.7B at a net margin of 6.8%. Revenue grew 12.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.7%. Net debt stands at $8.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.79 (bear case) to $42.00 (bull case); at $64.87, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -58%, SGI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($74.97) versus Dividend Discount ($9.75). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Somnigroup International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, distributes, and retails bedding products in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Somnigroup International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, distributes, and retails bedding products in the United States and internationally. It provides mattresses, foundations and adjustable foundations, and adjustable bases, as well as other products comprising pillows and other accessories under the Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, Stearns & Foster, and Sleepy's brands. The company operates a portfolio of retail brands, including Mattress Firm, Dreams, Tempur-Pedic retail stores, and SOVA; and licenses Sealy, Tempur, and Stearns & Foster brands, as well as technology and trademarks to other manufacturers. It sells its products through company-owned stores, online, and call centers; and third-party retailers, including third party distribution, hospitality, and healthcare. The company was formerly known as Tempur Sealy International, Inc. and changed its name to Somnigroup International Inc. in February 2025. The company was founded in 1846 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Somnigroup International Inc reported revenue of $7.5B in FY2025 versus $4.9B in FY2021, a compound +11.0%/yr. Reported net income was $384M in FY2025, compounding −11.4%/yr from FY2021.
SGI screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Midea Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Somnigroup to Post Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
- Somnigroup International (SGI) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
- Somnigroup Announces Refinancing of Credit Facilities
Peer Group
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 311 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midea Group 000333 | ¥82.71 | ¥107.22 | +30% |
| Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 | ¥38.25 | ¥88.02 | +130% |
| Haier Smart Home Co 600690 | ¥21.46 | ¥36.04 | +68% |
| King Slide Works Co 2059 | 8,655 TWD | 1,917 TWD | -78% |
| Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co 603268 | ¥155.59 | ¥38.95 | -75% |
| SharkNinja, Inc SN | $154.53 | $89.07 | -42% |
| Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 | ¥26.33 | ¥48.03 | +82% |
| Zhejiang Supor Co 002032 | ¥43.85 | ¥44.84 | +2% |
| COWAY Co 021240 | 96,700 KRW | 112,530 KRW | +16% |
| Ecovacs Robotics Co 603486 | ¥50.13 | ¥54.11 | +8% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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