ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. ¥2.28, price ¥14.96, upside -84.8%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.70 – ¥33.74 · fair‑value band ¥1.91 – ¥2.65 · the ¥14.96 price screens above the ¥2.28 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co., Ltd. offers solid waste treatment services. The company operates through Pollution Isolation Systems, Ecological Environment Restoration, Utilization of Renewable Resources, and Comprehensive Landfill Operation segments. It engages in construction of engineering projects; and industrial solid waste disposal.
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ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co., Ltd. offers solid waste treatment services. The company operates through Pollution Isolation Systems, Ecological Environment Restoration, Utilization of Renewable Resources, and Comprehensive Landfill Operation segments. It engages in construction of engineering projects; and industrial solid waste disposal. ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2001 and is based in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854) currently trades at ¥14.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.28, 84.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 93/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: ¥1.91 (bear) to ¥2.65 (bull), the price of ¥14.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 510M CNY in FY2025 versus 699M CNY in FY2021, a compound −7.6%/yr. Reported net income was −86.7M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 4.2B CNY (≈ $624M) · P/S ratio 8.64 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.5200 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin −17.0% · Return on equity −8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% · Operating margin 10.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −85%, 300854 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.91Fair Value ¥2.28Bull ¥2.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−21.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.8%
’19
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.6% (2020) → −4.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Pollution & Treatment Controls · 87 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.28 versus a price of ¥14.96, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300854?
Our model-based fair value for ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. is ¥2.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥14.96.
What is the quality score of 300854?
ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.91, optimistic scenario ¥2.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.28, about −85% upside versus a price of ¥14.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.91, optimistic scenario ¥2.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 484M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. it is ¥2.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥14.96. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 300854 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥14.96, fair value ¥2.28, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300854?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥14.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.28). For ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. the two are ¥12.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. at about 4.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥14.96; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300854?
Our models span a range for ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥1.91, base ¥2.28, optimistic ¥2.65 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥14.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
Balance-sheet figures for ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −8.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300854 from its 52-week high?
ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. trades at ¥14.96, about 56% below its 52-week high of ¥33.74 and 35% above the low of ¥11.08 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Veralto Corporation, Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation, CECO Environmental Corp, Fujian Longking Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥14.96, calculated fair value ¥2.28 (−85%), Quality Score 44/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300854 calculated?
We run ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥14.96. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.28, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
The market capitalisation of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. is 4.2B CNY (≈ $624M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. is 8.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
Earnings per share at ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. are ¥−0.5200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
The dividend yield of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
The net margin of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. is −17.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. is −8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
The operating margin of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
Revenue at ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. is growing −20.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854)?
Earnings per share at ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. are growing +140% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. (300854) generate?
The free cash flow of ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. is −82.6M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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