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Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. (301015) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · CN · Market cap 10.6B CNY

QB Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. 301015 · SHE
Price¥23.87
Fair Value¥19.87
Upside-16.8%
Quality61/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 6.9% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
2.79% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Moderate moat 53/100
Evidence: High Range ¥14.90 – ¥24.83 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 32 days ago

Share price +15.0% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • Our model range runs from ¥14.90 (bear) to ¥24.83 (bull), base ¥19.87. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 61/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥48.26 ¥16.11 Fair Value ¥19.87 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥16.11 – ¥48.26 · fair‑value band ¥14.90 – ¥24.83 · the ¥23.87 price screens above the ¥19.87 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. (301015) currently trades at ¥23.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥19.87, implying the stock looks roughly 16.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. generated revenue of 7.4B CNY at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue declined 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.0%. Net debt stands at 1.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥14.90 (bear case) to ¥24.83 (bull case); at ¥23.87, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -17%, 301015 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥16.19 ¥23.76 ¥34.85 80
Residual Income ¥5.89 ¥7.78 ¥28.91 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥15.40 ¥24.04 ¥34.24 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥16.01 ¥24.74 ¥38.44 38
Owner Earnings ¥8.45 ¥12.57 ¥19.04 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥15.40 ¥24.08 ¥35.29 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥17.48 ¥28.06 ¥40.58 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥15.38 ¥24.04 ¥33.27 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥15.05 ¥23.11 ¥34.23 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥16.82 ¥25.90 ¥38.34 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥15.47 ¥23.08 ¥32.65 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥6.14 ¥21.14 ¥28.38 54
Lynch FV ¥4.88 ¥6.97 ¥9.06 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥4.88 ¥6.97 ¥9.06 46
EPV ¥12.65 ¥14.48 ¥16.08 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥14.90 ¥19.87 ¥24.83 63
P/S Multiple ¥11.51 ¥15.35 ¥19.19 58
P/B Multiple ¥11.51 ¥15.35 ¥19.19 55
EV/EBIT ¥21.21 ¥27.72 ¥34.23 53
EV/EBITDA ¥20.14 ¥26.30 ¥32.45 54
EV/Revenue ¥15.62 ¥21.60 ¥27.57 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.34 ¥3.14 ¥4.69 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥16.19 ¥23.76 ¥34.85 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥15.40 ¥24.04 ¥34.24 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥5.89 ¥7.78 ¥28.91 76
ROIC Compounder ¥13.39 ¥16.26 ¥19.42 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥12.70 ¥18.15 ¥23.59 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥24.04) versus Asset-Based (¥3.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 7.4B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -3.1%
Net margin 6.9%
Return on equity 22.0%
Free cash flow 646M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 20.9
More key figures
Operating margin 12.9%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.9600
Dividend yield 2.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +43.8%
Net debt 1.0B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 48
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 91
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. engages in the research and development, production, wholesale, and retail of pharmaceutical products in China, the United States, Hong Kong, and the United Kingdom.

Full company description

Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. engages in the research and development, production, wholesale, and retail of pharmaceutical products in China, the United States, Hong Kong, and the United Kingdom. The company offers bone health drugs under the D-Cal brand name; digestive drugs under the Mite brand name; liver disease drugs under the Fuzhenghuayu brand name; and urological drugs under the Betanli, Harle, and Wei Xi Kang brand names. It also provides ophthalmic drugs under the HYCOSAN brand name; tumor and other severe drugs under the Human Albumin and Xospata brand names; anti-aging and cosmeceuticals under the Quanis, Excellula, TRANSINO, and Qingchunbao brand names; diabetes drugs under the Naida, Feburic, and Naite brand names; respiratory and anti-infective products under the Klacid brand name; and medical nutrition under the Nutrasumma brand name. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Qingdao, China. Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. is a subsidiary of BAHEAL Pharmaceutical Holdings Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. reported revenue of ¥7.5B in FY2025 versus ¥7.1B in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥475M in FY2025, compounding +3.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
7.5B CNY
Latest YoY
−7.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+0.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+5.0%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y)
+12.1%
Revenue +1.6%/yr
FY21 ¥7.1B
FY22 ¥7.5B
FY23 ¥8.3B
FY24 ¥8.1B
FY25 ¥7.5B
Net income +3.0%/yr
FY21 ¥422M
FY22 ¥502M
FY23 ¥712M
FY24 ¥692M
FY25 ¥475M

301015 screens 17% overvalued. Compare with McKesson Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301015

Peer Group

Medical Distribution · 81 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −17% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.51× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 4.29× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.42× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 11 · sector 32
FUTURE 0 · sector 14
PAST 88 · sector 21
HEALTH 75 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 56 · sector 53

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McKesson Corporation MCK $805.96 $819.31 +2%
Cencora, Inc COR $303.44 $175.74 -42%
Cardinal Health, Inc CAH $224.94 $141.77 -37%
Henry Schein, Inc HSIC $87.82 $74.67 -15%
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 ¥16.70 ¥33.96 +103%
Sinopharm Group 1099 HK$16.74 HK$61.33 +266%
Galenica AG GALE CHF 87.05 CHF 61.79 -29%
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 ¥21.50 ¥28.65 +33%
Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 ¥4.99 ¥9.84 +97%
Asker Healthcare Group ASKER kr 79.45 kr 25.69 -68%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. (301015) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥19.87 versus a price of ¥23.87, about −17% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301015?
Our model-based fair value for Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. is ¥19.87 (as of Jul 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥23.87.
What is the quality score of 301015?
Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. (301015)?
Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 301015?
The net profit margin of Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. is about 6.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. pay a dividend?
Qingdao Baheal Medical INC. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.79% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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