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Zhejiang Xinchai Co (301032) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.6B CNY

ZX Zhejiang Xinchai Co 301032 · SHE
Price¥10.17
Fair Value¥9.34
Upside-8.2%
Quality64/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 4.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.20% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: High Range ¥7.01 – ¥11.68 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 32 days ago

Share price +2.4% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from ¥7.01 (bear) to ¥11.68 (bull), base ¥9.34. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 64/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥19.52 ¥4.88 Fair Value ¥9.34 Jul 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.88 – ¥19.52 · fair‑value band ¥7.01 – ¥11.68 · the ¥10.17 price screens above the ¥9.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhejiang Xinchai Co (301032) currently trades at ¥10.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.34, implying the stock looks roughly 8.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Xinchai Co generated revenue of 2.3B CNY at a net margin of 4.8%. It earns a return on equity of 9.0%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 23.4. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥7.01 (bear case) to ¥11.68 (bull case); at ¥10.17, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -8%, 301032 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥12.18 ¥15.23 ¥20.13 80
Residual Income ¥4.33 ¥4.66 ¥5.46 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥8.47 ¥10.51 ¥13.06 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥11.87 ¥15.03 ¥20.52 38
Owner Earnings ¥9.38 ¥11.71 ¥15.73 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥8.47 ¥10.32 ¥12.90 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥9.86 ¥12.70 ¥16.32 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥9.89 ¥12.76 ¥16.05 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥9.63 ¥11.44 ¥13.43 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥10.58 ¥12.98 ¥15.67 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥10.60 ¥13.02 ¥15.49 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥3.03 ¥5.41 ¥6.67 54
EPV ¥5.76 ¥6.26 ¥6.70 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥7.01 ¥9.34 ¥11.68 63
P/S Multiple ¥5.67 ¥7.56 ¥9.45 58
P/B Multiple ¥5.67 ¥7.56 ¥9.45 55
EV/EBIT ¥8.23 ¥10.11 ¥11.99 53
EV/EBITDA ¥9.52 ¥11.84 ¥14.15 54
EV/Revenue ¥6.61 ¥8.34 ¥10.07 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.60 ¥3.48 ¥5.20 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥12.18 ¥15.23 ¥20.13 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥8.47 ¥10.51 ¥13.06 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.33 ¥4.66 ¥5.46 76
ROIC Compounder ¥5.80 ¥6.40 ¥7.01 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥4.95 ¥7.07 ¥9.19 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥12.70) versus Asset-Based (¥3.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.3B CNY
Net margin 4.8%
Return on equity 9.0%
Free cash flow 231M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 23.4
Operating margin 2.4%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥0.4600
Dividend yield 1.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +32.5%

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zhejiang Xinchai Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacturing, and sale of multi-cylinder diesel engines in China. It offers forklift engines, construction machinery, agricultural engines, gensets engines, and generator sets.

Full company description

Zhejiang Xinchai Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacturing, and sale of multi-cylinder diesel engines in China. It offers forklift engines, construction machinery, agricultural engines, gensets engines, and generator sets. The company also exports its products to the Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, the United States, Africa, and internationally. Zhejiang Xinchai Co.,Ltd was founded in 1958 and is based in Xinchang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhejiang Xinchai Co reported revenue of ¥2.3B in FY2025 versus ¥2.5B in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥107M in FY2025, compounding +7.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.3B CNY
Latest YoY
+3.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.1%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.6%
Revenue −1.6%/yr
FY21 ¥2.5B
FY22 ¥2.1B
FY23 ¥2.3B
FY24 ¥2.3B
FY25 ¥2.3B
Net income +7.7%/yr
FY21 ¥79.6M
FY22 ¥22.2M
FY23 ¥32.0M
FY24 ¥79.1M
FY25 ¥107M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhejiang Xinchai Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301032

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 808 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −8% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.2% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.07× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.11× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 12.6× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 22 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 23
PAST 36 · sector 28
HEALTH 98 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 24 · sector 24

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).

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GE Vernova Inc 1GEV €887.60 €186.93 -79%
1SIE 1SIE €273.20 €91.93 -66%
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Eaton Corporation ETN $407.28 $171.92 -58%
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Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 76,400 KRW 7,938 KRW -90%
Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS kr 178.10 kr 124.54 -30%
Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 ¥43.20 ¥22.68 -48%
NARI Technology Co 600406 ¥22.19 ¥18.71 -16%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhejiang Xinchai Co (301032) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.34 versus a price of ¥10.17, about −8% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 301032?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang Xinchai Co is ¥9.34 (as of Jul 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥10.17.
What is the quality score of 301032?
Zhejiang Xinchai Co has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang Xinchai Co (301032)?
Zhejiang Xinchai Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 301032?
The net profit margin of Zhejiang Xinchai Co is about 4.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhejiang Xinchai Co pay a dividend?
Zhejiang Xinchai Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.20% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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