Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. ¥9.34, price ¥10.22, upside -8.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.88 – ¥19.52 · fair‑value band ¥7.01 – ¥11.68 · the ¥10.22 price screens above the ¥9.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Zhejiang Xinchai Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacturing, and sale of multi-cylinder diesel engines in China. It offers forklift engines, construction machinery, agricultural engines, gensets engines, and generator sets.
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Zhejiang Xinchai Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacturing, and sale of multi-cylinder diesel engines in China. It offers forklift engines, construction machinery, agricultural engines, gensets engines, and generator sets. The company also exports its products to the Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, the United States, Africa, and internationally. Zhejiang Xinchai Co.,Ltd was founded in 1958 and is based in Xinchang, China.
Stock analysis
Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032) currently trades at ¥10.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.34, implying the stock looks roughly 9.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥12.11 per share, and 9 of the 22 models we run sit above the ¥10.22 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.48, and 13 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥7.01 (bear) to ¥11.68 (bull), the price of ¥10.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 2.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was 107M CNY in FY2025, compounding +7.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.5B CNY (≈ $368M) · P/E ratio 22.2 · P/S ratio 1.02 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4600 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −9%, 301032 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥7.01Fair Value ¥9.34Bull ¥11.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2423 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+1.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 5%
2025 sits 236% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.5% a year for the price.
Compare Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 828 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Is Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.34 versus a price of ¥10.22, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 301032?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. is ¥9.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥10.22.
What is the quality score of 301032?
Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥9.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.01, optimistic scenario ¥11.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥9.34, about −9% upside versus a price of ¥10.22 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥7.01, optimistic scenario ¥11.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by -4.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301032 use?
Our models discount Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. that is -4.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. grew -1.1 % a year. The price currently implies -4.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (-4.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.38 %: that much free cash flow Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. it is ¥9.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥10.22. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 301032 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥10.22, fair value ¥9.34, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301032?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥10.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥9.34). For Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. the two are ¥0.8800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. at about 2.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥10.22; our models calculate a fair value of ¥9.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301032?
Our models span a range for Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥7.01, base ¥9.34, optimistic ¥11.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥10.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301032?
Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥9.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 11.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.0%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301032 from its 52-week high?
Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. trades at ¥10.22, about 32% below its 52-week high of ¥14.95 and 15% above the low of ¥8.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥9.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥10.22, calculated fair value ¥9.34 (−9%), Quality Score 64/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301032 calculated?
We run Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥9.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥10.22. Our model-based fair value is ¥9.34, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
The market capitalisation of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. is 2.5B CNY (≈ $368M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. is 1.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
Earnings per share at Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. are ¥0.4600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
The dividend yield of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. is 1.3% (payout 28.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
The net margin of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
The operating margin of Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. (301032)?
Earnings per share at Zhejiang Xinchai Co. Ltd. are growing +32.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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