Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. stock SAR 13.45, price SAR 19.53, upside -31.1%, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 15.62 SAR – 37.49 SAR · fair‑value band 9.01 SAR – 20.90 SAR · the 19.53 SAR price screens above the 13.45 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 27, 2026.
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YAMAMA Cement Company manufactures and sells cement in Saudi Arabia. It offers ordinary Portland, salt-resistant, sulfate-resisting Portland, clinker, and finishing cement products. YAMAMA Cement Company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020) currently trades at 19.53 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13.45 SAR, 31.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 30.96 SAR per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the 19.53 SAR price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 4.98 SAR, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 9.01 SAR (bear) to 20.90 SAR (bull), the price of 19.53 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. reported revenue of 1.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 736M SAR in FY2021, a compound +17.9%/yr. Reported net income was 483M SAR in FY2025, compounding +33.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.0B SAR (≈ $1.1B) Small · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 2.87 · EPS (TTM) 2.39 SAR · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 34.5% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −31%, 3020 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear9.01 SARFair Value 13.45 SARBull20.90 SAR
Price 19.53 SAR · Upside -31.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.15 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.8% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.5% vs −2.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 30%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.4% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 252 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−32.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.8% · Above median
Return on assets6.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)34.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)34.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.81× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)2.87× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow22.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 10
PAST (return on equity)39· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3020
Frequently asked questions
Is Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 13.45 SAR versus a price of 19.53 SAR, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3020?
Our model-based fair value for Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. is 13.45 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 19.53 SAR.
What is the quality score of 3020?
Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 13.45 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 9.01 SAR, optimistic scenario 20.90 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 13.45 SAR, about −31% upside versus a price of 19.53 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 9.01 SAR, optimistic scenario 20.90 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. pay a dividend?
Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. currently shows a dividend yield of 5.12% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. would have to grow free cash flow by +18.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.1 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3020 use?
Our models discount Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. that is +18.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. grew +10.1 % a year. The price currently implies +18.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (+18.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.62 %: that much free cash flow Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. it is 13.45 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of 19.53 SAR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 3020 trades above its calculated fair value: price 19.53 SAR, fair value 13.45 SAR, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3020?
No. The price is what the market pays today (19.53 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (13.45 SAR). For Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. the two are 6.08 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. worth?
The market values Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. at about 4.0B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is 19.53 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 13.45 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3020?
Our models span a range for Yamamah Saudi Cement Co.: cautious scenario 9.01 SAR, base 13.45 SAR, optimistic 20.90 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price 19.53 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3020?
Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 13.45 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3020 from its 52-week high?
Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. trades at 19.53 SAR, about 27% below its 52-week high of 26.88 SAR and 5% above the low of 18.56 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 13.45 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yamamah Saudi Cement Co.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, Vulcan Materials Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price 19.53 SAR, calculated fair value 13.45 SAR (−31%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3020 calculated?
We run Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 13.45 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was 19.53 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 13.45 SAR, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (9.01 SAR to 20.90 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020) come from?
Earnings per share at Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. grew −3.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.7 %, EBIT margin −4.2 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
The market capitalisation of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. is 4.0B SAR (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. is 2.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
Earnings per share at Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. are 2.39 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
The dividend yield of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. is 5.1% (payout 41.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
The net margin of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. is 34.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
The operating margin of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. is 34.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020)?
Revenue at Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. is growing −2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. (3020) carry?
The net debt of Yamamah Saudi Cement Co. is 1.8B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 27, 2026