Heineken Bhd (3255) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Heineken Bhd MYR 20.32, price MYR 13.40, upside +51.6%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 13.40 MYR – 25.19 MYR · fair‑value band 13.96 MYR – 27.83 MYR · the 13.40 MYR price screens below the 20.32 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Heineken Malaysia Berhad, together with its subsidiaries, engages in production, packaging, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages primarily in Malaysia.
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Heineken Malaysia Berhad, together with its subsidiaries, engages in production, packaging, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages primarily in Malaysia. It offers beers under the Heineken, Tiger, Guinness, Anchor, Edelweiss, and Kilkenny brand names; ciders under the Apple Fox brand name; shandy under the Anglia brand name; and non-alcoholic malt beverage under the Malta brand name. The company is also involved in property holding and land development activities. It also exports its products to Asian countries. The company was formerly known as Guinness Anchor Berhad and changed its name to Heineken Malaysia Berhad in April 2016. The company was incorporated in 1964 is based in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia. Heineken Malaysia Berhad operates as a subsidiary of GAPL Pte Ltd.
Stock analysis
Heineken Bhd (3255) currently trades at 13.40 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 20.32 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 34.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 24.77 MYR per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the 13.40 MYR price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 6.46 MYR, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 13.96 MYR (bear) to 27.83 MYR (bull), the price of 13.40 MYR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Heineken Bhd reported revenue of 2.8B MYR in FY2026 versus 2.0B MYR in FY2022, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was 459M MYR in FY2026, compounding +16.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 5.8B MYR (≈ $1.4B) · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 1.51 · EPS (TTM) 1.46 MYR · Dividend yield 11.3% · Net margin 16.4% · Return on equity 68.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 42.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 52%, 3255 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 13.96 MYRFair Value 20.32 MYRBull 27.83 MYR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MYR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MYR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+24.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 22%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Malaysia: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.7% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 58 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+52% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)68% · Top 25%
Return on assets29% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)11.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heineken Bhd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3255
Frequently asked questions
Is Heineken Bhd (3255) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 20.32 MYR versus a price of 13.40 MYR, about +52% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3255?
Our model-based fair value for Heineken Bhd is 20.32 MYR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13.40 MYR.
What is the quality score of 3255?
Heineken Bhd has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heineken Bhd (3255)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 20.32 MYR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13.96 MYR, optimistic scenario 27.83 MYR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heineken Bhd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 20.32 MYR, about +52% upside versus a price of 13.40 MYR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 13.96 MYR, optimistic scenario 27.83 MYR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
Heineken Bhd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.7B MYR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Heineken Bhd pay a dividend?
Heineken Bhd currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Heineken Bhd (3255)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Heineken Bhd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3255 use?
Our models discount Heineken Bhd at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Malaysia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Heineken Bhd that is +1.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Heineken Bhd (3255) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Heineken Bhd grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +1.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Heineken Bhd (3255) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Heineken Bhd (+1.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.53 %: that much free cash flow Heineken Bhd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heineken Bhd it is 20.32 MYR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 13.40 MYR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heineken Bhd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 3255 trades below its calculated fair value: price 13.40 MYR, fair value 20.32 MYR, a gap of about +52% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3255?
No. The price is what the market pays today (13.40 MYR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (20.32 MYR). For Heineken Bhd the two are 6.92 MYR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heineken Bhd worth?
The market values Heineken Bhd at about 5.8B MYR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 13.40 MYR; our models calculate a fair value of 20.32 MYR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3255?
Our models span a range for Heineken Bhd: cautious scenario 13.96 MYR, base 20.32 MYR, optimistic 27.83 MYR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 13.40 MYR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3255?
Heineken Bhd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 20.32 MYR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.9, P/B 2.7, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 2.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 3255?
The PEG ratio of Heineken Bhd is 4.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heineken Bhd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 68.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3255 from its 52-week high?
Heineken Bhd trades at 13.40 MYR, about 42% below its 52-week high of 23.27 MYR and at the low of 13.40 MYR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 20.32 MYR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heineken Bhd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Constellation Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heineken Bhd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 13.40 MYR, calculated fair value 20.32 MYR (+52%), Quality Score 75/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3255 calculated?
We run Heineken Bhd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 20.32 MYR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Heineken Bhd currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 13.40 MYR. Our model-based fair value is 20.32 MYR, about +52% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heineken Bhd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (13.96 MYR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (13.96 MYR to 27.83 MYR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Heineken Bhd
How large is the market capitalisation of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
The market capitalisation of Heineken Bhd is 5.8B MYR (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heineken Bhd is 1.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
Earnings per share at Heineken Bhd are 1.46 MYR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
The dividend yield of Heineken Bhd is 11.3% (payout 104%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
The net margin of Heineken Bhd is 16.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heineken Bhd is 68.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heineken Bhd is 42.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heineken Bhd (3255)?
The operating margin of Heineken Bhd is 21.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heineken Bhd (3255)?
Revenue at Heineken Bhd is growing −13.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heineken Bhd (3255)?
Earnings per share at Heineken Bhd are growing −14.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Heineken Bhd (3255) carry?
The net debt of Heineken Bhd is 144M MYR (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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