Goldpac Group Ltd (3315) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · HK · Market cap HK$541M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.00 to HK$1.23 (+23.0%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −1.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 89% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.8800). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.6400 – HK$1.98 · fair‑value band HK$0.8800 – HK$1.41 · the HK$0.6500 price screens below the HK$1.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Goldpac Group Ltd (3315) currently trades at HK$0.6500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.23, implying the stock looks roughly 89.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Goldpac Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$931M at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue declined 14.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$418M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.8800 (bear case) to HK$1.41 (bull case); at HK$0.6500, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at 89%, 3315 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.10) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.4200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Goldpac Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides embedded software, secure payment products, and smart financial self-service kiosks in Mainland China and internationally. The company operates through Embedded Software and Secure Payment Products; and Platform and Service segments.
Full company description
Goldpac Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides embedded software, secure payment products, and smart financial self-service kiosks in Mainland China and internationally. The company operates through Embedded Software and Secure Payment Products; and Platform and Service segments. It also offers financial smart, merchant retail, business application, and social security cards; and intelligent terminal solutions, such as financial, social security, and government smart terminal; and fintech services comprising internet image review platform, DIY bank card, benefits redemption platform, and digital marketing and risk control products for banks. In addition, the company provides data processing, digital equipment, system platforms, and other solutions for customers in a range of business sectors, including financial, retails, social security, healthcare, and transportation, etc. Further, it involves property holding activities; coffee ground cards, natural wood veneer and bamboo, metal cards, ceramic cards, carbon fibre cards and others; provision of logistical auxiliary services; information technology research and development consultancy services; and computer software and hardware, as well as network technology research and development services. Goldpac Group Limited was founded in 1993 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Goldpac Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$931M in FY2025 versus HK$1.4B in FY2021, a compound −9.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$40.1M in FY2025, compounding −26.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −3.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $506.06 | $365.74 | -28% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$7.22 | C$2.34 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.84 | $61.46 | -62% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €358.00 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$111.01 | A$70.69 | -36% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥67.70 | ¥30.89 | -54% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,679 | ₹6,897 | -41% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.58 | ¥1.05 | -89% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,610 | ₹241.68 | -85% |
| PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk GOTO | 50.00 IDR | 20.41 IDR | -59% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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