China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd HK$3.95, price HK$2.90, upside +36.2%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.29 – HK$4.86 · fair‑value band HK$3.82 – HK$4.07 · the HK$2.90 price screens below the HK$3.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Weaving Materials Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacturing and trading of yarns products and related raw materials in the People's Republic of China.
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China Weaving Materials Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacturing and trading of yarns products and related raw materials in the People's Republic of China. It offers pure cotton yarn, polyester yarn, and polyester cotton blended yarn products; and grey and deep grey mélange, grey mélange-cotton blended, and other products. China Weaving Materials Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778) currently trades at HK$2.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.95, implying the stock looks roughly 26.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$8.86 per share, and 14 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$2.90 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.27, and 2 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$3.82 (bear) to HK$4.07 (bull), the price of HK$2.90 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 1.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −10.7%/yr. Reported net income was −6.7M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$363M (≈ $46.3M) · P/S ratio 0.34 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin −0.6% · Return on equity −1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% · Operating margin 0.6% · Revenue (TTM) 1.1B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 36%, 3778 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$3.82Fair Value HK$3.95Bull HK$4.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.4% (2020) → 2.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.3% a year for the price.
Compare China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Textile Manufacturing · 343 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+35% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−17% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Textile Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
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Is China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.95 versus a price of HK$2.90, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3778?
Our model-based fair value for China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd is HK$3.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.90.
What is the quality score of 3778?
China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.82, optimistic scenario HK$4.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.95, about +36% upside versus a price of HK$2.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.82, optimistic scenario HK$4.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -20.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3778 use?
Our models discount China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd that is -20.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd grew -5.1 % a year. The price currently implies -20.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (-20.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 32.09 %: that much free cash flow China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd it is HK$3.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$2.90. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 3778 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.90, fair value HK$3.95, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3778?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.95). For China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd at about HK$363M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.90; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3778?
Our models span a range for China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$3.82, base HK$3.95, optimistic HK$4.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$2.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −1.0%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3778 from its 52-week high?
China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd trades at HK$2.90, about 16% below its 52-week high of HK$3.45 and 21% above the low of HK$2.40 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Shenzhou International Group, Tongkun Group, Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co, K.P.R. Mill Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$2.90, calculated fair value HK$3.95 (+36%), Quality Score 54/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3778 calculated?
We run China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$2.90. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.95, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.82). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The models converge in a tight band (HK$3.82 to HK$4.07), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
The market capitalisation of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd is HK$363M (≈ $46.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd is 0.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
The dividend yield of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd is 4.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
The net margin of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd is −0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd is −1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
The operating margin of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
Revenue at China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd is growing −17.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778)?
Earnings per share at China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd are growing −67.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd (3778) carry?
The net debt of China Weaving Materials Holdings Ltd is 127M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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