Hospital Corporation of China Ltd (3869) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hospital Corporation of China Ltd HK$19.49, price HK$3.39, upside +475.8%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Hospital Corporation of China Ltd
3869 · HKCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$3.30 – HK$12.00 · fair‑value band HK$12.63 – HK$34.60 · the HK$3.39 price screens below the HK$19.49 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Company profile
Hospital Corporation of China Limited, an investment holding company, owns, operates, and manages hospitals in the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: General Hospital Services; Hospital Management Services; and Sale of Pharmaceutical Products.
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Hospital Corporation of China Limited, an investment holding company, owns, operates, and manages hospitals in the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: General Hospital Services; Hospital Management Services; and Sale of Pharmaceutical Products. The company offers inpatient and outpatient, operation management, management, supply chain, and other ancillary services to certain hospitals; and property management services. It also engages in the wholesale and retail of pharmaceutical products and medical devices. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. Hospital Corporation of China Limited operates as a subsidiary of Vanguard Glory Limited.
Stock analysis
Hospital Corporation of China Ltd (3869) currently trades at HK$3.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$19.49, implying the stock looks roughly 82.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$37.14 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$3.39 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$2.35, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$12.63 (bear) to HK$34.60 (bull), the price of HK$3.39 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hospital Corporation of China Ltd reported revenue of 1.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 520M CNY in FY2021, a compound +29.7%/yr. Reported net income was 136M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$681M (≈ $86.8M) · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 0.79 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.2400 · Net margin 9.3% · Return on equity 21.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.1% · Operating margin 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 476%, 3869 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 24 models by family
Notify me when 3869 reaches fair value
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
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Compare Hospital Corporation of China Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 246 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $431.63 | $597.97 | +39% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €43.64 | €34.49 | −21% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 225.00 SAR | 109.45 SAR | −51% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $257.93 | $274.35 | +6% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, 5225 | 8.03 MYR | 4.87 MYR | −39% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,889 | ₹2,908 | −67% |
| Encompass Health Corporation EHC | $123.47 | $94.47 | −23% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS | $22.27 | $45.84 | +106% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $178.07 | $215.81 | +21% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥7.91 | ¥10.86 | +37% |
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Frequently asked questions
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Key figures of Hospital Corporation of China Ltd
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