Muda Holdings Bhd (3883) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · MY · Market cap 256M MYR
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 0.1800 MYR to 0.3200 MYR (+77.8%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price −4.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 61% overvalued on our models.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.3600 MYR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.7000 MYR – 3.39 MYR · fair‑value band 0.2800 MYR – 0.3600 MYR · the 0.8200 MYR price screens above the 0.3200 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Muda Holdings Bhd (3883) currently trades at 0.8200 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.3200 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 61.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Muda Holdings Bhd generated revenue of 1.4B MYR at a net margin of -2.0%. Revenue declined 7.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.0%. Net debt stands at 652M MYR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.2800 MYR (bear case) to 0.3600 MYR (bull case); at 0.8200 MYR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -61%, 3883 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (2.78 MYR) versus Dividend Discount (0.1600 MYR). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Muda Holdings Berhad, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of paper and paper packaging products in Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, and the People's Republic of China. It operates through Manufacturing and Trading segments.
Full company description
Muda Holdings Berhad, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of paper and paper packaging products in Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, and the People's Republic of China. It operates through Manufacturing and Trading segments. The company offers industrial paper, such as test liner, corrugated medium, laminated chip board, core board, grey chip board, and deli wrapping paper. It also offers corrugated cartons, paper bags, paper stationery, paper boards, board sheets, and paper-based food packaging products. In addition, the company trades in paper, recovered paper, waste paper, schoolbooks, uniforms, recycled materials, and stationery products; acts as a commission agent; provides management consultancy, general insurance agency, and engineering and fabrication services; imports and distributes stationery; and operates school bookshops and online bookstores. Further, it is involved in the property holding activities. Additionally, the company manufactures and trades printing materials. The company's products are used in retail, furniture, food and beverages, electrical, electronics, and other industries. Muda Holdings Berhad was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Muda Holdings Bhd reported revenue of 1.4B MYR in FY2025 versus 1.7B MYR in FY2021, a compound −4.7%/yr. Reported net income was −48.5M MYR in FY2025.
3883 screens 61% overvalued. Compare with Klabin S.A →
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$18.33 | R$3.80 | -79% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.67 | €14.21 | -40% |
| Suzano S.A SUZB3 | R$44.97 | R$101.11 | +125% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAA | kr 111.50 | kr 45.12 | -60% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥13.94 | ¥17.29 | +24% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 314.00 | kr 217.72 | -31% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.92 | HK$8.74 | +10% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,000 CLP | 1,253 CLP | +25% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.11 | ¥21.06 | -0% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 74.55 | kr 48.60 | -35% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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