DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of DaChan Food Asia Ltd HK$1.22, price HK$0.58, upside +110.3%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4000 – HK$0.9600 · fair‑value band HK$0.9300 – HK$1.50 · the HK$0.5800 price screens below the HK$1.22 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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DaChan Food (Asia) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells livestock feeds, poultry and chilled meats, and processed foods in the People's Republic of China, Japan, and rest of the Asia Pacific. It operates through Processed Food, Livestock Feeds, and Chicken Meat segments.
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DaChan Food (Asia) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells livestock feeds, poultry and chilled meats, and processed foods in the People's Republic of China, Japan, and rest of the Asia Pacific. It operates through Processed Food, Livestock Feeds, and Chicken Meat segments. The company produces and distributes pickled, pre-fried, and instant foods; and feed, base mixes, and pre-mixes for swine, layer, broiler, duck, and breeder poultry under the Dr. Nupak, DaChan, and Green Knight brands. It also engages in broiler farming, broiler breeder eggs hatching, and contract farming activities; and processing and marketing chilled and frozen chicken meat under the DaChan and Sisters' Kitchen brands. In addition, the company is involved in the husbandry and trading; research and development; consultancy; and poultry farms construction and leasing, and swine raising and selling activities. DaChan Food (Asia) Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999) currently trades at HK$0.5800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.22, implying the stock looks roughly 52.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$2.05 per share, and 14 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$0.5800 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.7000, and 0 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.9300 (bear) to HK$1.50 (bull), the price of HK$0.5800 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
DaChan Food Asia Ltd reported revenue of 6.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 6.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was −1.6M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$589M (≈ $75.1M) · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0182 · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity 1.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% · Operating margin 1.4% · Revenue (TTM) 6.0B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 110%, 3999 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.9300Fair Value HK$1.22Bull HK$1.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0137 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.9% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.3% (2020) → 1.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−29.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −30.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 641 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+110.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.6% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "DaChan Food Asia Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3999
Frequently asked questions
Is DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.22 versus a price of HK$0.5800, about +110% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3999?
Our model-based fair value for DaChan Food Asia Ltd is HK$1.22 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.5800.
What is the quality score of 3999?
DaChan Food Asia Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.22 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.9300, optimistic scenario HK$1.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DaChan Food Asia Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.22, about +110% upside versus a price of HK$0.5800 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.9300, optimistic scenario HK$1.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
DaChan Food Asia Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, DaChan Food Asia Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -29.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3999 use?
Our models discount DaChan Food Asia Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For DaChan Food Asia Ltd that is -29.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at DaChan Food Asia Ltd grew -0.5 % a year. The price currently implies -29.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into DaChan Food Asia Ltd (-29.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 38.18 %: that much free cash flow DaChan Food Asia Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DaChan Food Asia Ltd it is HK$1.22 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.5800. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is DaChan Food Asia Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 3999 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.5800, fair value HK$1.22, a gap of about +110% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3999?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.5800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.22). For DaChan Food Asia Ltd the two are HK$0.6400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DaChan Food Asia Ltd worth?
The market values DaChan Food Asia Ltd at about HK$589M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.5800; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3999?
Our models span a range for DaChan Food Asia Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.9300, base HK$1.22, optimistic HK$1.50 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.5800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 3999?
The PEG ratio of DaChan Food Asia Ltd is 0.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
Balance-sheet figures for DaChan Food Asia Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.6%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3999 from its 52-week high?
DaChan Food Asia Ltd trades at HK$0.5800, about 12% below its 52-week high of HK$0.6600 and 14% above the low of HK$0.5100 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DaChan Food Asia Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DaChan Food Asia Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.5800, calculated fair value HK$1.22 (+110%), Quality Score 56/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3999 calculated?
We run DaChan Food Asia Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. DaChan Food Asia Ltd currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.5800. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.22, about +110% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DaChan Food Asia Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.9300). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of DaChan Food Asia Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
The market capitalisation of DaChan Food Asia Ltd is HK$589M (≈ $75.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
The price-to-sales ratio of DaChan Food Asia Ltd is 0.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
Earnings per share at DaChan Food Asia Ltd are HK$0.0182. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
The net margin of DaChan Food Asia Ltd is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DaChan Food Asia Ltd is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DaChan Food Asia Ltd is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
The operating margin of DaChan Food Asia Ltd is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
Revenue at DaChan Food Asia Ltd is growing −2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999)?
Earnings per share at DaChan Food Asia Ltd are growing −35.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does DaChan Food Asia Ltd (3999) hold?
DaChan Food Asia Ltd holds more cash than debt, 64.2M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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