Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Al Aseel Co Ltd stock SAR 5.51, price SAR 3.20, upside +72.2%, quality 83 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?Yes
Quality 50+?Yes
In an uptrend?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.27 SAR – 5.05 SAR · fair‑value band 4.13 SAR – 6.88 SAR · the 3.20 SAR price screens below the 5.51 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Thob Al Aseel Company develops, imports, exports, wholesales, and retails trade of fabrics and readymade garments in Saudi Arabia. The company operates through Dresses, Fabrics, and Clothes segments.
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It sells men's clothing and fabric, such as thobes, underwear, pajamas, and sleeping robes, as well as other products, including t-shirt, socks, and ehram. It operates through a chain of retail outlets under the Al-Jedaie brand. The company was founded in 1987 and is based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012) currently trades at 3.20 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.51 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 41.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 5.85 SAR per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the 3.20 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1.35 SAR, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 4.13 SAR (bear) to 6.88 SAR (bull), the price of 3.20 SAR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Al Aseel Co Ltd reported revenue of 528M SAR in FY2025 versus 482M SAR in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was 100M SAR in FY2025, compounding +13.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.3B SAR (≈ $342M) Small · P/E ratio 12.3 · P/S ratio 2.24 · EPS (TTM) 0.2600 SAR · Dividend yield 6.6% · Net margin 19.2% · Return on equity 17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 72%, 4012 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear4.13 SARFair Value 5.51 SARBull6.88 SAR
Price 3.20 SAR · Upside +72.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0414 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +10.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +4.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 4.0% / −41.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 22%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 33.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.21 per share, median 28.1 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Manufacturing · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score83 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+72.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)14.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Al Aseel Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4012
Frequently asked questions
Is Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.51 SAR versus a price of 3.20 SAR, about +72% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4012?
Our model-based fair value for Al Aseel Co Ltd is 5.51 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3.20 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4012?
Al Aseel Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 83/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5.51 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.13 SAR, optimistic scenario 6.88 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Al Aseel Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5.51 SAR, about +72% upside versus a price of 3.20 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 4.13 SAR, optimistic scenario 6.88 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
Al Aseel Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 572M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Al Aseel Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Al Aseel Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 6.56% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Al Aseel Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -14.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.0 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4012 use?
Our models discount Al Aseel Co Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Al Aseel Co Ltd that is -14.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Al Aseel Co Ltd grew +0.0 % a year. The price currently implies -14.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Al Aseel Co Ltd (-14.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.84 %: that much free cash flow Al Aseel Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Al Aseel Co Ltd it is 5.51 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of 3.20 SAR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Al Aseel Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 4012 trades below its calculated fair value: price 3.20 SAR, fair value 5.51 SAR, a gap of about +72% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4012?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3.20 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5.51 SAR). For Al Aseel Co Ltd the two are 2.31 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Al Aseel Co Ltd worth?
The market values Al Aseel Co Ltd at about 1.3B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is 3.20 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 5.51 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4012?
Our models span a range for Al Aseel Co Ltd: cautious scenario 4.13 SAR, base 5.51 SAR, optimistic 6.88 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price 3.20 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4012?
Al Aseel Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 5.51 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
Balance-sheet figures for Al Aseel Co Ltd (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 17.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 83/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4012 from its 52-week high?
Al Aseel Co Ltd trades at 3.20 SAR, about 18% below its 52-week high of 3.88 SAR and 8% above the low of 2.95 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5.51 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Al Aseel Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Ralph Lauren Corporation, Moncler S.p.A, LPP SA, Levi Strauss & Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Al Aseel Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price 3.20 SAR, calculated fair value 5.51 SAR (+72%), Quality Score 83/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4012 calculated?
We run Al Aseel Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5.51 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Al Aseel Co Ltd currently trades 42 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 3.20 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 5.51 SAR, about +72% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Al Aseel Co Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (83/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (4.13 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012) come from?
Earnings per share at Al Aseel Co Ltd grew −42.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −40.4 %, EBIT margin −1.8 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Al Aseel Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
The market capitalisation of Al Aseel Co Ltd is 1.3B SAR (≈ $342M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Al Aseel Co Ltd is 2.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
Earnings per share at Al Aseel Co Ltd are 0.2600 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
The dividend yield of Al Aseel Co Ltd is 6.6% (payout 80.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
The net margin of Al Aseel Co Ltd is 19.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Al Aseel Co Ltd is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Al Aseel Co Ltd is 14.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
The operating margin of Al Aseel Co Ltd is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
Revenue at Al Aseel Co Ltd is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012)?
Earnings per share at Al Aseel Co Ltd are growing +65.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Al Aseel Co Ltd (4012) hold?
Al Aseel Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 250M SAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 27, 2026