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Data-driven stock valuation

MBC Group Co. (4072) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MBC Group Co. stock SAR 8.97, price SAR 17.78, upside -49.6%, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value 30%+ above price?No
  2. Quality 50+?No
  3. In an uptrend?No
  4. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Communication Services · SA · ISIN SA15U0CHVK19

MG MBC Group Co. logo Some data Oct 27, 2026

MBC Group Co.

4072 · SR

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 50% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 41/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +18.4 %/yr in SAR)
Loss over the last twelve months · -1.4% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 7.1%
Some data
Fair value 8.97 SAR · Strongly overvalued (−49.6%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/12)
Narrow moat 26/100 · thin data
⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

79.90 SAR 16.15 SAR Fair Value 8.97 SAR Jan 2024 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

34‑month range 16.15 SAR – 79.90 SAR · fair‑value band 8.31 SAR – 9.52 SAR · the 17.78 SAR price screens above the 8.97 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.

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Company profile

MBC Group operates as a media company in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, North Africa, and internationally.

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It operates free-to-air TV channels and radio stations, such as MBC1, MBC2, MBC3, MBC4, MBC5, MBC MASR, MBC IRAQ, and MBC LOUD FM, as well as MBC SHAHID, an Arabic streaming platform.

The company is also involved in production and post-production of television programs; acquisition of television content for resale; music label and rights management; management and development of artistic and entertainment talents; events and exhibitions management; and management of real estate properties owned and leased.

In addition, it engages in managing distribution contracts; brokerage, production, and distribution of artwork; and production of television, cinema, broadcasting, and media arts works; MBC ACADEMY, an educational and training platform; music publishing, and touring and merchandising services; and WIZZO, a mobile gaming app comprising esports events and a local gaming network.

Further, the company provides FlashWin, a web-based game; and broadcasting services, broadcast support services, event management services, advertising services, technical support services, and commerce services, including technical management of websites and mobile applications.

The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Stock analysis

MBC Group Co. (4072) currently trades at 17.78 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 8.97 SAR, 49.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 37.93 SAR per share, and 7 of the 15 models we run sit above the 17.78 SAR price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 4.29 SAR, and 8 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 8.31 SAR (bear) to 9.52 SAR (bull), the price of 17.78 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

MBC Group Co. reported revenue of 5.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 2.8B SAR in FY2021, a compound +17.3%/yr. Reported net income was 383M SAR in FY2025, compounding −15.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 5.9B SAR (≈ $1.6B) Small · P/E ratio 19.1 · P/S ratio 1.36 · EPS (TTM) −0.1900 SAR · Net margin −1.4% · Return on equity −0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0% · Operating margin 3.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at −50%, 4072 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 8.31 SAR Fair Value 8.97 SAR Bull 9.52 SAR
Price 17.78 SAR · Upside -49.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings 4.01 SAR 4.29 SAR 4.83 SAR 78
EPV 8.31 SAR 8.97 SAR 9.52 SAR 74
ROIC Compounder 8.31 SAR 8.97 SAR 9.52 SAR 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 4.01 SAR 4.29 SAR 4.83 SAR 78
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 7.82 SAR 54.56 SAR 76.56 SAR 63
Lynch FV 20.36 SAR 29.08 SAR 37.81 SAR 61
PEG = 1.0 20.36 SAR 29.08 SAR 37.81 SAR 57
EPV 8.31 SAR 8.97 SAR 9.52 SAR 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple 18.98 SAR 25.31 SAR 31.64 SAR 63
P/S Multiple 14.67 SAR 19.56 SAR 24.45 SAR 58
P/B Multiple 35.34 SAR 47.12 SAR 58.90 SAR 55
EV/EBIT 10.93 SAR 13.31 SAR 15.69 SAR 66
EV/EBITDA 12.00 SAR 14.74 SAR 17.48 SAR 67
EV/Revenue 9.20 SAR 11.53 SAR 13.85 SAR 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 4.10 SAR 6.21 SAR 7.76 SAR 55
Economic Profit
Residual Income 11.07 SAR 11.76 SAR 13.17 SAR 71
ROIC Compounder 8.31 SAR 8.97 SAR 9.52 SAR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 26.55 SAR 37.93 SAR 49.31 SAR 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 37
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 9
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 76
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 52
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 82
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 11
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 4
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 40
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 4%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 64% above its own trend.

4072 screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with Nexstar Media Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Broadcasting · 68 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside −49.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 4.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) −1.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 3.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −28.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Broadcasting median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 19.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.30× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 1.28× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 31.5× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 60
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 23
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 90

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Broadcasting stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, EMTK 318.00 IDR 782.48 IDR +146% vs 4072
MFE-Mediaforeurope N.V MFEA €2.11 €4.87 +131% vs 4072
SES S.A SESG €4.29 €7.45 +74% vs 4072
Métropole Télévision S.A MMT €10.08 €15.98 +59% vs 4072
Sinclair, Inc SBGI $12.08 $15.14 +25% vs 4072
Nexstar Media Group NXST $167.34 $184.07 +10% vs 4072
Sun TV Network Limited SUNTV ₹572.10 ₹586.58 +3% vs 4072
Beijing Gehua Catv Network Co 600037 ¥6.84 ¥4.26 −38% vs 4072
Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation 600959 ¥3.18 ¥1.72 −46% vs 4072
Guizhou BC&TV Information Network CO.,LTD 600996 ¥6.11 ¥1.23 −80% vs 4072

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MBC Group Co. · Fair Value
8.97 SAR −50%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MBC Group Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4072

Frequently asked questions

Is MBC Group Co. (4072) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 8.97 SAR versus a price of 17.78 SAR, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4072?
Our model-based fair value for MBC Group Co. is 8.97 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 17.78 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4072?
MBC Group Co. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MBC Group Co. (4072)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 8.97 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8.31 SAR, optimistic scenario 9.52 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MBC Group Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 8.97 SAR, about −50% upside versus a price of 17.78 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 8.31 SAR, optimistic scenario 9.52 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MBC Group Co. (4072)?
MBC Group Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.6B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MBC Group Co. (4072)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MBC Group Co. it is 8.97 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of 17.78 SAR. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MBC Group Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 4072 trades above its calculated fair value: price 17.78 SAR, fair value 8.97 SAR, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4072?
No. The price is what the market pays today (17.78 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (8.97 SAR). For MBC Group Co. the two are 8.81 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MBC Group Co. worth?
The market values MBC Group Co. at about 5.9B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is 17.78 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 8.97 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4072?
Our models span a range for MBC Group Co.: cautious scenario 8.31 SAR, base 8.97 SAR, optimistic 9.52 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price 17.78 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4072?
MBC Group Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 8.97 SAR is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 33.6 (reported for FY2025: 15.4). Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 31.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of MBC Group Co. (4072)?
Balance-sheet figures for MBC Group Co. (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity −0.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4072 from its 52-week high?
MBC Group Co. trades at 17.78 SAR, about 49% below its 52-week high of 34.98 SAR and 10% above the low of 16.15 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 8.97 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MBC Group Co.?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Nexstar Media Group, Sun TV Network Limited, Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation, SES S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MBC Group Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price 17.78 SAR, calculated fair value 8.97 SAR (−50%), Quality Score 41/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4072 calculated?
We run MBC Group Co. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 8.97 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. MBC Group Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MBC Group Co. (4072)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 17.78 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 8.97 SAR, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MBC Group Co. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (9.52 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (8.31 SAR to 9.52 SAR), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of MBC Group Co.

How large is the market capitalisation of MBC Group Co. (4072)?
The market capitalisation of MBC Group Co. is 5.9B SAR (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MBC Group Co. (4072)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MBC Group Co. is 1.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MBC Group Co. (4072)?
Earnings per share at MBC Group Co. are −0.1900 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MBC Group Co. (4072)?
The net margin of MBC Group Co. is −1.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MBC Group Co. (4072)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MBC Group Co. is −0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MBC Group Co. (4072)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MBC Group Co. is 0.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MBC Group Co. (4072)?
The operating margin of MBC Group Co. is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MBC Group Co. (4072)?
Revenue at MBC Group Co. is growing −28.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MBC Group Co. (4072)?
Earnings per share at MBC Group Co. are growing −14.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MBC Group Co. (4072) generate?
The free cash flow of MBC Group Co. is −80.6M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does MBC Group Co. (4072) hold?
MBC Group Co. holds more cash than debt, 1.3B SAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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