Nexstar Media Group (NXST) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $5.7B
Nexstar Media Group
NXST · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $151.97 to $78.52 (−48.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +10.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 59% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($98.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $116.27 – $251.25 · fair‑value band $58.89 – $98.15 · the $193.78 price screens above the $78.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Nexstar Media Group (NXST) currently trades at $193.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $78.52, implying the stock looks roughly 59.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nexstar Media Group generated revenue of $5.1B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 13.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.6%. Net debt stands at $6.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $58.89 (bear case) to $98.15 (bull case); at $193.78, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -59%, NXST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($324.15) versus Asset-Based ($45.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. operates as a diversified media company that produces and distributes local and national news, sports, and entertainment contents on the television and digital platforms in the United States.
Full company description
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. operates as a diversified media company that produces and distributes local and national news, sports, and entertainment contents on the television and digital platforms in the United States. It owns, operates, programs, or provides sales and other services to power television and radio stations; and provides television programming services. The company offers video and display advertising platforms through its own and various third party websites, mobile and over-the-top applications, digital media solutions to media publishers and advertisers, and a consumer product reviews platform. In addition, it owns NewsNation, a national cable news network; and WGN-AM, a Chicago radio station, as well as owns and operates digital multicast networks. Further, its digital assets include 125 local websites, 229 mobile applications, 110 connected television applications, television channels from The CW and The Hill, BestReviews, and advertising solutions. Additionally, the company engages in the digital business. Its stations are affiliates of ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, The CW, MyNetworkTV, and other broadcast television networks. Nexstar Media Group, Inc. was formerly known as Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. and changed its name to Nexstar Media Group, Inc. in January 2017. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nexstar Media Group reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $4.6B in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was $109M in FY2025, compounding −39.9%/yr from FY2021.
NXST screens 59% overvalued. Compare with SES S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Nexstar Media Group Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend of $1.86 Per Share
- Nexstar Announces Completion of ATSC 3.0 Transition in Cleveland, Marking Upgrade in Final Major U.S. Market
- Nexstar to Launch Daily Primetime Local Newscasts on Stations in Dallas and Phoenix
- FCC Vote on TV Cap Lifts Nexstar 8.8%, Sparks Broadcast Rally
Peer Group
Broadcasting · 69 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Broadcasting median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Broadcasting stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SES S.A SESG | €7.46 | €15.46 | +107% |
| PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, EMTK | 505.00 IDR | 1,094 IDR | +117% |
| MFE-Mediaforeurope N.V MFEB | €3.64 | €5.38 | +48% |
| Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation 600959 | ¥3.07 | ¥1.14 | -63% |
| Sun TV Network Limited SUNTV | ₹489.20 | ₹586.58 | +20% |
| MBC Group 4072 | 20.06 SAR | 19.56 SAR | -2% |
| Beijing Gehua Catv Network Co 600037 | ¥7.13 | ¥3.64 | -49% |
| PT Surya Citra Media Tbk, SCMA | 206.00 IDR | 229.91 IDR | +12% |
| Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited ZEEL | ₹92.61 | ₹53.22 | -43% |
| Sinclair, Inc SBGI | $15.42 | $4.29 | -72% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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