Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Makkah Construction&Development Co stock SAR 73.59, price SAR 67.60, upside +8.9%, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?Yes
In an uptrend?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 43.15 SAR – 109.85 SAR · fair‑value band 39.47 SAR – 127.75 SAR · the 67.60 SAR price screens below the 73.59 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 24, 2026.
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Makkah Construction and Development Company invests in, owns, develops, manages, purchases, and leases properties near Al Masjid Al Haram in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through The Commercial Center, Hotels and towers, Hajj and Umrah, and Investment sector segment.
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It engages in the engineering works, including building, constructing, repairing, and demolishing works, as well as operates hotels; and offers Hajj and Umrah services. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Mecca, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100) currently trades at 67.60 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 73.59 SAR, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 58.06 SAR per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the 67.60 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 12.87 SAR, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 39.47 SAR (bear) to 127.75 SAR (bull), the price of 67.60 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Makkah Construction&Development Co reported revenue of 1.1B SAR in FY2026 versus 253M SAR in FY2022, a compound +43.5%/yr. Reported net income was 474M SAR in FY2026, compounding +46.2%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 13.5B SAR (≈ $3.6B) Mid · P/E ratio 26.3 · P/S ratio 9.65 · EPS (TTM) 2.57 SAR · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 36.7% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 9%, 4100 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear39.47 SARFair Value 73.59 SARBull127.75 SAR
Price 67.60 SAR · Upside +8.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4232 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.4% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +33.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +30.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 30.3% / 2.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 40%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 0.63 per share, median 1.76 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.9% a year for the price.
Compare Makkah Construction&Development Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 163 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+8.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)36.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)23.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)80.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Makkah Construction&Development Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4100
Frequently asked questions
Is Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 73.59 SAR versus a price of 67.60 SAR, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 4100?
Our model-based fair value for Makkah Construction&Development Co is 73.59 SAR (as of Oct 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 67.60 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4100?
Makkah Construction&Development Co has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 73.59 SAR (as of Oct 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 39.47 SAR, optimistic scenario 127.75 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Makkah Construction&Development Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 73.59 SAR, about +9% upside versus a price of 67.60 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 39.47 SAR, optimistic scenario 127.75 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
Makkah Construction&Development Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 24, 2026).
Does Makkah Construction&Development Co pay a dividend?
Makkah Construction&Development Co currently shows a dividend yield of 2.96% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Makkah Construction&Development Co would have to grow free cash flow by +21.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +46.4 % per year. As of Oct 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4100 use?
Our models discount Makkah Construction&Development Co at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Makkah Construction&Development Co that is +21.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Makkah Construction&Development Co grew +46.4 % a year. The price currently implies +21.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Makkah Construction&Development Co (+21.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.38 %: that much free cash flow Makkah Construction&Development Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Makkah Construction&Development Co it is 73.59 SAR per share (as of Oct 24, 2026), against a price of 67.60 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Makkah Construction&Development Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 24, 2026, 4100 trades below its calculated fair value: price 67.60 SAR, fair value 73.59 SAR, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4100?
No. The price is what the market pays today (67.60 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (73.59 SAR). For Makkah Construction&Development Co the two are 5.99 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Makkah Construction&Development Co worth?
The market values Makkah Construction&Development Co at about 13.5B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 24, 2026). Per share that is 67.60 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 73.59 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4100?
Our models span a range for Makkah Construction&Development Co: cautious scenario 39.47 SAR, base 73.59 SAR, optimistic 127.75 SAR per share (as of Oct 24, 2026, price 67.60 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4100?
Makkah Construction&Development Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.3 (as of Oct 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 73.59 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.5, P/S 9.7, EV/EBITDA 26.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
Balance-sheet figures for Makkah Construction&Development Co (as of Oct 24, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4100 from its 52-week high?
Makkah Construction&Development Co trades at 67.60 SAR, about 25% below its 52-week high of 90.58 SAR and 3% above the low of 65.85 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 73.59 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Makkah Construction&Development Co?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, H World Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Makkah Construction&Development Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 24, 2026: price 67.60 SAR, calculated fair value 73.59 SAR (+9%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4100 calculated?
We run Makkah Construction&Development Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 73.59 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Makkah Construction&Development Co currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 67.60 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 73.59 SAR, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Makkah Construction&Development Co right now?
The model range is unusually wide (39.47 SAR to 127.75 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100) come from?
Earnings per share at Makkah Construction&Development Co grew +1.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.4 %, EBIT margin −7.3 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Makkah Construction&Development Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
The market capitalisation of Makkah Construction&Development Co is 13.5B SAR (≈ $3.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Makkah Construction&Development Co is 9.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
Earnings per share at Makkah Construction&Development Co are 2.57 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
The dividend yield of Makkah Construction&Development Co is 3.0% (payout 77.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
The net margin of Makkah Construction&Development Co is 36.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Makkah Construction&Development Co is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Makkah Construction&Development Co is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
The operating margin of Makkah Construction&Development Co is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
Revenue at Makkah Construction&Development Co is growing +80.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100)?
Earnings per share at Makkah Construction&Development Co are growing +19.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Makkah Construction&Development Co (4100) carry?
The net debt of Makkah Construction&Development Co is 31.0M SAR (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 24, 2026