Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 6, 2026: fair value of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd MYR 4.71, price MYR 3.46, upside +36.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.7300 MYR – 6.13 MYR · fair‑value band 3.85 MYR – 5.61 MYR · the 3.46 MYR price screens below the 4.71 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Hengyuan Refining Company Berhad engages in refining, manufacturing, and selling petroleum products in Malaysia. It offers liquefied petroleum gas; petrol; jet fuel; diesel; fuel oil components; sulphur; light naphtha; and propylene.
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Hengyuan Refining Company Berhad engages in refining, manufacturing, and selling petroleum products in Malaysia. It offers liquefied petroleum gas; petrol; jet fuel; diesel; fuel oil components; sulphur; light naphtha; and propylene. The company was formerly known as Shell Refining Company (Federation of Malaya) Berhad and changed its name to Hengyuan Refining Company Berhad in March 2017. Hengyuan Refining Company Berhad was incorporated in 1960 and is based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The company operates as a subsidiary of Malaysia Hengyuan International Limited.
Stock analysis
Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324) currently trades at 3.46 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.71 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 4.91 MYR per share, and 7 of the 10 models we run sit above the 3.46 MYR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1.28 MYR, and 3 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 3.85 MYR (bear) to 5.61 MYR (bull), the price of 3.46 MYR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd reported revenue of 13.2B MYR in FY2025 versus 12.0B MYR in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was −260M MYR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.7B MYR (≈ $661M) · P/E ratio 2.1 · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) 1.67 MYR · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin −2.0% · Return on equity 81.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 374% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at 36%, 4324 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 3.85 MYRFair Value 4.71 MYRBull 5.61 MYR
Price 3.46 MYR · Upside +36.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.20 MYR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−23.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.2% (2020) → −0.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Malaysia: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.2% a year for the price.
Compare Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+36.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)81.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets18.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth55.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4324
Frequently asked questions
Is Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.71 MYR versus a price of 3.46 MYR, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4324?
Our model-based fair value for Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd is 4.71 MYR (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3.46 MYR.
What is the quality score of 4324?
Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.71 MYR (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.85 MYR, optimistic scenario 5.61 MYR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.71 MYR, about +36% upside versus a price of 3.46 MYR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 3.85 MYR, optimistic scenario 5.61 MYR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.3B MYR (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd pay a dividend?
Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.89% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd would have to grow free cash flow by +17.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.9 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4324 use?
Our models discount Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Malaysia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd that is +17.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd grew +12.9 % a year. The price currently implies +17.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (+17.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.31 %: that much free cash flow Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd it is 4.71 MYR per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of 3.46 MYR. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 4324 trades below its calculated fair value: price 3.46 MYR, fair value 4.71 MYR, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4324?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3.46 MYR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4.71 MYR). For Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd the two are 1.25 MYR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd worth?
The market values Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd at about 2.7B MYR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is 3.46 MYR; our models calculate a fair value of 4.71 MYR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4324?
Our models span a range for Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd: cautious scenario 3.85 MYR, base 4.71 MYR, optimistic 5.61 MYR per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price 3.46 MYR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4324?
Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.1 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 4.71 MYR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 81.3%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4324 from its 52-week high?
Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd trades at 3.46 MYR, about 24% below its 52-week high of 4.54 MYR and 374% above the low of 0.7300 MYR (as of Oct 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4.71 MYR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price 3.46 MYR, calculated fair value 4.71 MYR (+36%), Quality Score 44/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4324 calculated?
We run Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4.71 MYR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
The closing price on Oct 6, 2026 was 3.46 MYR. Our model-based fair value is 4.71 MYR, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (3.85 MYR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
The market capitalisation of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd is 2.7B MYR (≈ $661M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd is 0.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
Earnings per share at Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd are 1.67 MYR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
The dividend yield of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd is 2.9% (payout 6.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
The net margin of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd is −2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd is 81.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd is −3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
The operating margin of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
Revenue at Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd is growing +55.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324)?
Earnings per share at Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd are growing +592% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd (4324) carry?
The net debt of Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd is 372M MYR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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