Epileds Technologies Inc (4956) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Epileds Technologies Inc TWD 16.73, price TWD 44.50, upside -62.4%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Epileds Technologies, Inc. researches and develops, designs, manufactures, and sells blue, green, red, and white light LED wafers and chips in Taiwan and internationally. The company offers AlGalnP LED Chips and InGaN LED Chips.
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Epileds Technologies, Inc. researches and develops, designs, manufactures, and sells blue, green, red, and white light LED wafers and chips in Taiwan and internationally. The company offers AlGalnP LED Chips and InGaN LED Chips. Its LED wafers and chips are used in various applications, including landscape lighting, plant lighting, white light illumination, CCTV, and vehicle lighting; indicators of consumer electronics, light source of fax machines and scanners, backlight source of LCD monitors, indoor or outdoor display boards, automotive lightings, traffic signals, and illuminators; and high voltage LED chip, UV, and other applications. Epileds Technologies, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is based in Tainan City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Epileds Technologies Inc (4956) currently trades at 44.50 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.73 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 166.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 18.96 TWD per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the 44.50 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 10.82 TWD, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 12.14 TWD (bear) to 21.70 TWD (bull), the price of 44.50 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Epileds Technologies Inc reported revenue of 1.3B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound −6.5%/yr. Reported net income was −80.3M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 4.5B TWD (≈ $140M) · P/S ratio 2.19 · EPS (TTM) −0.8000 TWD · Net margin −6.0% · Return on equity −2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.6% · Operating margin 5.1% · Revenue (TTM) 1.4B TWD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 149% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −62%, 4956 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12.14 TWDFair Value 16.73 TWDBull 21.70 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.0% (2020) → −6.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.7% a year for the price.
Compare Epileds Technologies Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Components · 654 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−62% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.09× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.10× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA1.6× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)77· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Epileds Technologies Inc (4956) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.73 TWD versus a price of 44.50 TWD, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4956?
Our model-based fair value for Epileds Technologies Inc is 16.73 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 44.50 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4956?
Epileds Technologies Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.73 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.14 TWD, optimistic scenario 21.70 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Epileds Technologies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.73 TWD, about −62% upside versus a price of 44.50 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.14 TWD, optimistic scenario 21.70 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Epileds Technologies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Epileds Technologies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +23.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4956 use?
Our models discount Epileds Technologies Inc at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Epileds Technologies Inc that is +23.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Epileds Technologies Inc (4956) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Epileds Technologies Inc grew +0.7 % a year. The price currently implies +23.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Epileds Technologies Inc (+23.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.49 %: that much free cash flow Epileds Technologies Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Epileds Technologies Inc it is 16.73 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 44.50 TWD. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Epileds Technologies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4956 trades above its calculated fair value: price 44.50 TWD, fair value 16.73 TWD, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4956?
No. The price is what the market pays today (44.50 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.73 TWD). For Epileds Technologies Inc the two are 27.77 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Epileds Technologies Inc worth?
The market values Epileds Technologies Inc at about 4.5B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 44.50 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 16.73 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4956?
Our models span a range for Epileds Technologies Inc: cautious scenario 12.14 TWD, base 16.73 TWD, optimistic 21.70 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 44.50 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Balance-sheet figures for Epileds Technologies Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.1%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4956 from its 52-week high?
Epileds Technologies Inc trades at 44.50 TWD, about 19% below its 52-week high of 54.70 TWD and 149% above the low of 17.85 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.73 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Epileds Technologies Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Amphenol Corporation, Delta Electronics, Inc, Corning Incorporated, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Epileds Technologies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 44.50 TWD, calculated fair value 16.73 TWD (−62%), Quality Score 50/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4956 calculated?
We run Epileds Technologies Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16.73 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Epileds Technologies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 44.50 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 16.73 TWD, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Epileds Technologies Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (21.70 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Epileds Technologies Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The market capitalisation of Epileds Technologies Inc is 4.5B TWD (≈ $140M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Epileds Technologies Inc is 2.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Earnings per share at Epileds Technologies Inc are −0.8000 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The net margin of Epileds Technologies Inc is −6.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Epileds Technologies Inc is −2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Epileds Technologies Inc is −1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The operating margin of Epileds Technologies Inc is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Revenue at Epileds Technologies Inc is growing +15.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Earnings per share at Epileds Technologies Inc are growing −50.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Epileds Technologies Inc (4956) carry?
The net debt of Epileds Technologies Inc is 482M TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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