Epileds Technologies Inc (4956) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Epileds Technologies Inc stock TWD 16.49, price TWD 31.20, that is 47.1% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 13.50 TWD – 54.70 TWD · fair‑value band 11.92 TWD – 21.38 TWD · the 31.20 TWD price screens above the 16.49 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Epileds Technologies, Inc. researches and develops, designs, manufactures, and sells blue, green, red, and white light LED wafers and chips in Taiwan and internationally. The company offers AlGalnP LED Chips and InGaN LED Chips.
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Its LED wafers and chips are used in various applications, including landscape lighting, plant lighting, white light illumination, CCTV, and vehicle lighting; indicators of consumer electronics, light source of fax machines and scanners, backlight source of LCD monitors, indoor or outdoor display boards, automotive lightings, traffic signals, and illuminators; and high voltage LED chip, UV, and other applications.
Epileds Technologies, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is based in Tainan City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Epileds Technologies Inc (4956) currently trades at 31.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.49 TWD, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 16.49 TWD per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the 31.20 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 4.03 TWD, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 11.92 TWD (bear) to 21.38 TWD (bull), the price of 31.20 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Epileds Technologies Inc reported revenue of 1.3B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound −6.5%/yr. Reported net income was −80.3M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.1B TWD (≈ $95.4M) Micro · P/E ratio 66.4 · P/S ratio 2.22 · EPS (TTM) 0.4700 TWD · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −47%, 4956 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear11.92 TWDFair Value 16.49 TWDBull21.38 TWD
Price 31.20 TWD · Downside -47.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4030 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.0% (2020) → −6.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.8% a year for the price.
Compare Epileds Technologies Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Components · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−47.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Return on assets−3.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)3.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)0.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)66.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.93× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)2.22× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)20.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA15.7× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)23· sector 69
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Epileds Technologies Inc (4956) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.49 TWD versus a price of 31.20 TWD, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4956?
Our model-based fair value for Epileds Technologies Inc is 16.49 TWD (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 31.20 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4956?
Epileds Technologies Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.49 TWD (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 11.92 TWD, optimistic scenario 21.38 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Epileds Technologies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.49 TWD, about 47% lower versus a price of 31.20 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 11.92 TWD, optimistic scenario 21.38 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Epileds Technologies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Epileds Technologies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +17.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4956 use?
Our models discount Epileds Technologies Inc at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Epileds Technologies Inc that is +17.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Epileds Technologies Inc (4956) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Epileds Technologies Inc grew +0.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +17.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Epileds Technologies Inc (+17.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.03 %: that much free cash flow Epileds Technologies Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Epileds Technologies Inc it is 16.49 TWD per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 31.20 TWD. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Epileds Technologies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 4956 trades above its calculated fair value: price 31.20 TWD, fair value 16.49 TWD, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4956?
No. The price is what the market pays today (31.20 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.49 TWD). For Epileds Technologies Inc the two are 14.71 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Epileds Technologies Inc worth?
The market values Epileds Technologies Inc at about 3.1B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 31.20 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 16.49 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4956?
Our models span a range for Epileds Technologies Inc: cautious scenario 11.92 TWD, base 16.49 TWD, optimistic 21.38 TWD per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 31.20 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4956?
Epileds Technologies Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 66.4 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16.49 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 15.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Balance-sheet figures for Epileds Technologies Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 2.9%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4956 from its 52-week high?
Epileds Technologies Inc trades at 31.20 TWD, about 43% below its 52-week high of 54.70 TWD and 75% above the low of 17.85 TWD (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.49 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Epileds Technologies Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Amphenol Corporation, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, Corning Incorporated, Delta Electronics, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Epileds Technologies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 31.20 TWD, calculated fair value 16.49 TWD (−47%), Quality Score 53/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4956 calculated?
We run Epileds Technologies Inc through 10 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 16.49 TWD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Epileds Technologies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 31.20 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 16.49 TWD, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Epileds Technologies Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (21.38 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Epileds Technologies Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The market capitalisation of Epileds Technologies Inc is 3.1B TWD (≈ $95.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Epileds Technologies Inc is 2.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Earnings per share at Epileds Technologies Inc are 0.4700 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 66.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The net margin of Epileds Technologies Inc is 3.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Epileds Technologies Inc is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Epileds Technologies Inc is −1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
The operating margin of Epileds Technologies Inc is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Revenue at Epileds Technologies Inc is growing +4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Epileds Technologies Inc (4956)?
Earnings per share at Epileds Technologies Inc are growing −50.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Epileds Technologies Inc (4956) carry?
The net debt of Epileds Technologies Inc is 482M TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026