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NCL Industries Limited (502168) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of NCL Industries Limited ₹94.70, price ₹171, upside -44.6%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
NCL Industries Limited
502168 · BSEWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value ₹94.70 · Strongly overvalued (−44.6%)
!Quality 48/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +8.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
!1.5% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹148.08 – ₹276.53 · fair‑value band ₹71.02 – ₹107.99 · the ₹170.80 price screens above the ₹94.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
NCL Industries Limited manufactures and sells building materials in India. It operates through five segments: Cement, Boards, Doors, Energy, and Ready Mix Concrete.
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NCL Industries Limited manufactures and sells building materials in India. It operates through five segments: Cement, Boards, Doors, Energy, and Ready Mix Concrete. It offers cement, including ordinary Portland and pozzolana Portland cement under the Nagarjuna brand name; and special cement for supply to Indian Railways for concrete sleepers and pre-stressed concrete works. The company also provides ready mixed concrete; plain, laminated, embossed, and sandwich panels under the brand names of Bison Panel, Bison Lam, and Bison Designer Boards; and readymade doors under the Duradoor brand name. In addition, it engages in the generation of hydel power with a total installed capacity of 15.75 MW. The company was formerly known as Nagarjuna Cements Limited and changed its name to NCL Industries Limited in December 1987. NCL Industries Limited was founded in 1979 and is based in Secunderabad, India.
Stock analysis
NCL Industries Limited (502168) currently trades at ₹170.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹94.70, 44.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ₹127.13 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the ₹170.80 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ₹29.52, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹71.02 (bear) to ₹107.99 (bull), the price of ₹170.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
NCL Industries Limited reported revenue of ₹14.1B in FY2025 versus ₹13.8B in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was ₹252M in FY2025, compounding −35.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹7.7B (≈ $80.2M) · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) ₹19.44 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −45%, 502168 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹71.02
Fair Value ₹94.70
Bull ₹107.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹16.94 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
₹23.27
₹29.52
₹34.59
74
Residual Income
₹124.26
₹117.71
₹115.64
74
ROIC Compounder
₹23.27
₹29.52
₹34.59
70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
₹37.88
₹107.30
₹141.30
63
Lynch FV
₹21.84
₹31.20
₹40.55
59
PEG = 1.0
₹21.84
₹31.20
₹40.55
55
EPV
₹23.27
₹29.52
₹34.59
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
₹24.38
₹40.83
₹53.00
66
DDM Multi-Stage
₹24.38
₹35.27
₹43.93
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
₹71.02
₹94.70
₹118.37
63
P/S Multiple
₹71.02
₹94.70
₹118.37
58
P/B Multiple
₹71.02
₹94.70
₹118.37
55
EV/EBIT
₹90.30
₹129.98
₹169.66
65
EV/EBITDA
₹150.19
₹209.83
₹269.48
67
EV/Revenue
₹74.42
₹118.64
₹162.86
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
₹94.87
₹127.13
₹189.74
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
₹124.26
₹117.71
₹115.64
74
ROIC Compounder
₹23.27
₹29.52
₹34.59
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
₹58.15
₹83.07
₹107.99
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
48/100
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Profitability
39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
7
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
’14
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 4%
502168 screens overvalued: fair value 45% below the price. Compare with CRH plc →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 249 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Indian Stocks
- Valuation of the India market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRH plc CRH | $85.04 | $74.79 | −12% |
| Holcim AG HOLN | CHF 64.66 | CHF 33.08 | −49% |
| Martin Marietta Materials, Inc MLM | $484.30 | $207.85 | −57% |
| UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO | ₹11,155 | ₹4,719 | −58% |
| Vulcan Materials Company VMC | $245.00 | $131.66 | −46% |
| China Jushi Co 600176 | ¥43.06 | ¥28.26 | −34% |
| Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM | ₹3,191 | ₹1,245 | −61% |
| Amrize AG AMRZ | $38.22 | $35.08 | −8% |
| James Hardie Industries plc JHX | A$36.98 | A$8.06 | −78% |
| Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 | ¥17.51 | ¥28.02 | +60% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is NCL Industries Limited (502168) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹94.70 versus a price of ₹170.80, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 502168?
Our model-based fair value for NCL Industries Limited is ₹94.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹170.80.
What is the quality score of 502168?
NCL Industries Limited has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹94.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹71.02, optimistic scenario ₹107.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NCL Industries Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹94.70, about −45% upside versus a price of ₹170.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹71.02, optimistic scenario ₹107.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
NCL Industries Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹10.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does NCL Industries Limited pay a dividend?
NCL Industries Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.46% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NCL Industries Limited it is ₹94.70 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹170.80. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NCL Industries Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 502168 trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹170.80, fair value ₹94.70, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 502168?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹170.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹94.70). For NCL Industries Limited the two are ₹76.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NCL Industries Limited worth?
The market values NCL Industries Limited at about ₹7.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹170.80; our models calculate a fair value of ₹94.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 502168?
Our models span a range for NCL Industries Limited: cautious scenario ₹71.02, base ₹94.70, optimistic ₹107.99 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹170.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 502168?
NCL Industries Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹94.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 3.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
Balance-sheet figures for NCL Industries Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.5%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 502168 from its 52-week high?
NCL Industries Limited trades at ₹170.80, about 19% below its 52-week high of ₹209.90 and 15% above the low of ₹148.55 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹94.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NCL Industries Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NCL Industries Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹170.80, calculated fair value ₹94.70 (−45%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 502168 calculated?
We run NCL Industries Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹94.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. NCL Industries Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹170.80. Our model-based fair value is ₹94.70, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NCL Industries Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹107.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of NCL Industries Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
The market capitalisation of NCL Industries Limited is ₹7.7B (≈ $80.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NCL Industries Limited is 0.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
Earnings per share at NCL Industries Limited are ₹19.44 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
The dividend yield of NCL Industries Limited is 1.5% (payout 12.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
The net margin of NCL Industries Limited is 1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NCL Industries Limited is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NCL Industries Limited is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
The operating margin of NCL Industries Limited is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
Revenue at NCL Industries Limited is growing +79.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NCL Industries Limited (502168)?
Earnings per share at NCL Industries Limited are growing +391% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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