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Teco Image Systems Co (5438) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · TW · Market cap 2.0B TWD

TI Teco Image Systems Co 5438 · TWO
Price17.65 TWD
Fair Value6.14 TWD
Upside-65.2%
Quality44/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 1.0% net margin
generates free cash flow
4.21% dividend yield
Trails peers (1/10)
Narrow moat 17/100
Evidence: High Range 4.61 TWD – 7.46 TWD Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026

From 18 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Share price −7.8% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 65% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (7.46 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

42.50 TWD 10.48 TWD Fair Value 6.14 TWD Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 10.48 TWD – 42.50 TWD · fair‑value band 4.61 TWD – 7.46 TWD · the 17.65 TWD price screens above the 6.14 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

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Analysis

Teco Image Systems Co (5438) currently trades at 17.65 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6.14 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 65.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Teco Image Systems Co generated revenue of 1.2B TWD at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue declined 44.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.4%. Net debt stands at 25.9M TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 4.61 TWD (bear case) to 7.46 TWD (bull case); at 17.65 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -65%, 5438 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 20.00 TWD 18.53 TWD 13.46 TWD 76
Growth DCF 5.62 TWD 5.70 TWD 5.83 TWD 72
Growth-Adj P/E 4.02 TWD 5.74 TWD 7.46 TWD 68
All 18 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 5.61 TWD 5.69 TWD 5.84 TWD 38
Owner Earnings 11.81 TWD 14.16 TWD 18.38 TWD 31
5Y Revenue Exit 5.59 TWD 5.69 TWD 5.83 TWD 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 6.11 TWD 6.58 TWD 7.21 TWD 41
5Y P/E Exit 8.40 TWD 10.54 TWD 13.09 TWD 38
10Y Revenue Exit 5.59 TWD 5.66 TWD 5.74 TWD 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 5.90 TWD 6.20 TWD 6.53 TWD 37
10Y P/E Exit 7.26 TWD 8.60 TWD 9.90 TWD 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 2.46 TWD 3.00 TWD 3.38 TWD 54
Multiples
P/E Multiple 5.69 TWD 7.59 TWD 9.49 TWD 63
P/S Multiple 4.61 TWD 6.14 TWD 7.68 TWD 58
P/B Multiple 4.61 TWD 6.14 TWD 7.68 TWD 55
EV/EBITDA 6.62 TWD 7.03 TWD 7.45 TWD 54
EV/Revenue 5.60 TWD 5.70 TWD 5.80 TWD 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 14.79 TWD 19.81 TWD 29.57 TWD 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 5.62 TWD 5.70 TWD 5.83 TWD 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income 20.00 TWD 18.53 TWD 13.46 TWD 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 4.02 TWD 5.74 TWD 7.46 TWD 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (19.81 TWD) versus Earnings-Based (3.00 TWD). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.2B TWD
Revenue growth (YoY) -44.7%
Net margin 1.0%
Return on equity 0.4%
Free cash flow 2.8M TWD FY2025
P/E ratio 35.0
More key figures
Operating margin -23.6%
EPS (TTM) 0.5100 TWD
Dividend yield 4.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -54.9%
Net debt 25.9M TWD FY2021

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Teco Image Systems Co., Ltd. provides OEM and ODM services to imaging and communication products industries in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, and internationally. The company involved in the design, development, and manufacture of multi-function printing devices, plain paper facsimiles, digital copiers, and color scanners.

Full company description

Teco Image Systems Co., Ltd. provides OEM and ODM services to imaging and communication products industries in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, and internationally. The company involved in the design, development, and manufacture of multi-function printing devices, plain paper facsimiles, digital copiers, and color scanners. It also provides mechanical subsystems comprising control panels and automatic document feeders; optical subsystems, such as scan units; and electronic sub-systems, including printer controller cards, printer network cards, internet fax cards, fax controllers, and copier controllers. Teco Image Systems Co., Ltd. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Teco Image Systems Co reported revenue of 1.3B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound −7.5%/yr. Reported net income was 40.7M TWD in FY2025, compounding −5.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 32/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.3B TWD
Latest YoY
−2.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−9.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.3%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.2%
Revenue −7.5%/yr
FY21 1.8B TWD
FY22 1.7B TWD
FY23 1.2B TWD
FY24 1.3B TWD
FY25 1.3B TWD
Net income −5.9%/yr
FY21 51.8M TWD
FY22 64.4M TWD
FY23 7.1M TWD
FY24 86.9M TWD
FY25 40.7M TWD

5438 screens 65% overvalued. Compare with Ricoh Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Teco Image Systems Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5438

Peer Group

Business Equipment & Supplies · 72 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −65% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 0% · Below median
Return on assets -1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -24% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -45% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.2% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Business Equipment & Supplies median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 35.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 22.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 33
FUTURE 0 · sector 18
PAST 2 · sector 21
HEALTH 0 · sector 99
DIVIDEND 84 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Business Equipment & Supplies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Ricoh Company RICO ¥15.33 ¥17.99 +17%
GRG Banking Equipment Co 002152 ¥10.08 ¥6.90 -32%
Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc 603899 ¥21.45 ¥30.05 +40%
XGD Inc 300130 ¥19.90 ¥15.67 -21%
DOMS Industries Limited DOMS ₹2,260 ₹782.96 -65%
Hengbao Co 002104 ¥9.20 ¥1.66 -82%
Shaanxi Fenghuo Electronics Co 000561 ¥6.99 ¥1.75 -75%
Shenzhen Comix Group 002301 ¥7.30 ¥3.11 -57%
Shandong New Beiyang Information Technology Co 002376 ¥6.00 ¥1.73 -71%
Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co 603187 ¥11.92 ¥21.12 +77%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Teco Image Systems Co (5438) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 6.14 TWD versus a price of 17.65 TWD, about −65% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 5438?
Our model-based fair value for Teco Image Systems Co is 6.14 TWD (as of Jul 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 17.65 TWD.
What is the quality score of 5438?
Teco Image Systems Co has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Teco Image Systems Co (5438)?
Teco Image Systems Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B TWD (latest available figure, as of Jul 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 5438?
The net profit margin of Teco Image Systems Co is about 1.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Teco Image Systems Co pay a dividend?
Teco Image Systems Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.02% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 21, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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