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Hua Xia Bank Co (600015) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · CN · Market cap 108B CNY

HX Hua Xia Bank Co 600015 · SHG
Price¥6.81
Fair Value¥13.56
Upside+99.1%
Quality52/100
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Weak Growth
Highly profitable · 40.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
6.24% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Moderate moat 61/100
Evidence: High Range ¥10.17 – ¥16.95 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from ¥13.30 to ¥13.56 (+2.0%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +0.7% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 99% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥10.17). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥8.58 ¥4.47 Fair Value ¥13.56 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.47 – ¥8.58 · fair‑value band ¥10.17 – ¥16.95 · the ¥6.81 price screens below the ¥13.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Hua Xia Bank Co (600015) currently trades at ¥6.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.56, implying the stock looks roughly 99.1% undervalued today. We read business quality at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Hua Xia Bank Co generated revenue of 67.4B CNY at a net margin of 40.2%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.2%. Net debt stands at 567B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥10.17 (bear case) to ¥16.95 (bull case); at ¥6.81, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 99%, 600015 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥17.85 ¥25.05 ¥35.33 80
Residual Income ¥8.01 ¥8.43 ¥8.96 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥10.49 ¥13.30 ¥16.21 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥17.59 ¥25.70 ¥38.02 38
Owner Earnings ¥7.29 ¥9.72 ¥13.42 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥10.49 ¥13.24 ¥16.54 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥13.81 ¥19.44 ¥25.86 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥13.90 ¥19.60 ¥25.48 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥12.81 ¥15.92 ¥19.73 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥15.04 ¥20.21 ¥26.83 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥15.10 ¥20.32 ¥26.54 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥4.61 ¥14.16 ¥18.81 54
Lynch FV ¥3.05 ¥4.36 ¥5.67 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥3.05 ¥4.36 ¥5.67 46
EPV ¥9.57 ¥10.68 ¥11.66 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥3.22 ¥6.69 ¥10.62 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.22 ¥5.29 ¥7.03 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥10.17 ¥13.56 ¥16.95 63
P/S Multiple ¥4.29 ¥5.72 ¥7.15 58
P/B Multiple ¥8.64 ¥11.52 ¥14.41 55
EV/EBIT ¥14.95 ¥18.98 ¥23.00 53
EV/EBITDA ¥12.89 ¥16.23 ¥19.57 54
EV/Revenue ¥6.88 ¥8.59 ¥10.31 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.93 ¥6.61 ¥9.87 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥17.85 ¥25.05 ¥35.33 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥10.49 ¥13.30 ¥16.21 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥8.01 ¥8.43 ¥8.96 76
ROIC Compounder ¥9.57 ¥11.16 ¥13.33 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥8.41 ¥12.02 ¥15.63 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥19.44) versus Earnings-Based (¥4.36). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 67.4B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.6%
Net margin 40.2%
Return on equity 7.2%
Free cash flow 52.2B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 4.2
More key figures
Operating margin 50.5%
EPS (TTM) ¥1.61
Dividend yield 6.3%
EPS growth (YoY) -3.1%
Net debt 567B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 21
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 97
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 77
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hua Xia Bank Co., Limited provides commercial banking services in China and Hong Kong. It offers current, time, corporate agreement, foreign currency, and notice deposit products; debit and credit services; housing loans, business loans, life loans, and personal loans, as well as working capital, credit, stock pledge, fixed asset, guarantee, and syndicate …

Full company description

Hua Xia Bank Co., Limited provides commercial banking services in China and Hong Kong. It offers current, time, corporate agreement, foreign currency, and notice deposit products; debit and credit services; housing loans, business loans, life loans, and personal loans, as well as working capital, credit, stock pledge, fixed asset, guarantee, and syndicate loans; financial services, such as trading, investment, foreign exchange, and third-party depositary; and fund products. The company also provides intermediary services, including agency sales, guarantees, agency collection and payment services, settlement, and other services; asset custody services; internet and mobile banking; internet fund; online payment services; and wealth management, and FX trading and advisory services. In addition, it offers insurance services, trust services, brokerage, personal exchange settlement, personal deposit certification, and safe-deposit boxes. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hua Xia Bank Co reported revenue of ¥91.7B in FY2025 versus ¥169B in FY2021, a compound −14.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥27.2B in FY2025, compounding +3.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
91.7B CNY
Latest YoY
−49.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−18.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−10.6%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+13.7%
Revenue −14.2%/yr
FY21 ¥169B
FY22 ¥171B
FY23 ¥178B
FY24 ¥182B
FY25 ¥91.7B
Net income +3.7%/yr
FY21 ¥23.5B
FY22 ¥25.0B
FY23 ¥26.4B
FY24 ¥27.7B
FY25 ¥27.2B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hua Xia Bank Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600015

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside +99% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 40% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 51% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.2% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.45× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.27× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.60× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.66× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 39
FUTURE 23 · sector 44
PAST 29 · sector 41
HEALTH 78 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 49

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 6,175 IDR 6,087 IDR -1%
KB Financial Group 105560 184,400 KRW 213,797 KRW +16%
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 2,970 IDR 4,891 IDR +65%
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 4,310 IDR 7,841 IDR +82%
Banco Bradesco S.A BBD 5,120 ARS 10,240 ARS +100%
Shinhan Financial Group 055550 107,900 KRW 137,259 KRW +27%
Hana Financial Group 086790 136,800 KRW 193,969 KRW +42%
Lloyds Banking Group LYG 4,138 ARS 8,275 ARS +100%
Banco de Chile, CHILE 193.10 CLP 152.55 CLP -21%
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB 59,400 VND 84,201 VND +42%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hua Xia Bank Co (600015) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.56 versus a price of ¥6.81, about +99% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600015?
Our model-based fair value for Hua Xia Bank Co is ¥13.56 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥6.81.
What is the quality score of 600015?
Hua Xia Bank Co has a Quality Score of 52/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hua Xia Bank Co (600015)?
Hua Xia Bank Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 67.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600015?
The net profit margin of Hua Xia Bank Co is about 40.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 40.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hua Xia Bank Co pay a dividend?
Hua Xia Bank Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.25% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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