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Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company (600020) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 8.6B CNY

HZ Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company 600020 · SHG
Price¥3.79
Fair Value¥4.75
Upside+25.3%
Quality45/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 9.5% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
3.10% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/14)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: High Range ¥3.57 – ¥7.02 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price +3.8% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 25% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥3.57 to ¥7.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥5.05 ¥2.65 Fair Value ¥4.75 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.65 – ¥5.05 · fair‑value band ¥3.57 – ¥7.02 · the ¥3.79 price screens below the ¥4.75 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company (600020) currently trades at ¥3.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.75, implying the stock looks roughly 25.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company generated revenue of 6.7B CNY at a net margin of 9.5%. Revenue grew 10.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.1%. Net debt stands at 31.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥3.57 (bear case) to ¥7.02 (bull case); at ¥3.79, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 25%, 600020 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥5.16 ¥5.17 ¥4.66 76
Gordon GGM ¥5.50 ¥10.96 ¥16.59 70
Growth-Adj P/E ¥3.28 ¥4.69 ¥6.09 68
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥5.03 ¥15.77 41
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥0.6200 ¥10.77 37
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥1.90 ¥7.47 ¥10.14 54
Lynch FV ¥1.84 ¥2.63 ¥3.42 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥1.84 ¥2.63 ¥3.42 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥5.50 ¥10.96 ¥16.59 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥5.50 ¥9.47 ¥11.56 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥4.40 ¥5.87 ¥7.34 63
P/S Multiple ¥3.57 ¥4.75 ¥5.94 58
P/B Multiple ¥3.57 ¥4.75 ¥5.94 55
EV/EBIT ¥3.39 ¥7.61 53
EV/EBITDA ¥1.44 ¥6.41 ¥11.38 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.48 ¥4.66 ¥6.96 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥5.16 ¥5.17 ¥4.66 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥3.28 ¥4.69 ¥6.09 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥9.47) versus DCF Models (¥0.6200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 6.7B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.7%
Net margin 9.5%
Return on equity 4.1%
Free cash flow 550M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 16.5
More key figures
Operating margin 40.6%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.2400
Dividend yield 3.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +5.1%
Net debt 31.6B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 11
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 94
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited engages in investment, construction, operation, and management of expressways in China.

Full company description

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited engages in investment, construction, operation, and management of expressways in China. The company operates Airport Expressway, the Zhengzhou-Zhumadian section of the Beijing-Hong Kong-Macau Expressway, the Zhengzhou-Yaoshan section of the Zhengluan Expressway, Zhengmin Expressway, Shangdeng Expressway, and the Yongcheng Section of Deshang Expressway. It also involved in the project investment, investment management, and investment consulting business; real estate development and sales; civil engineering construction; housing rental; and property management businesses, as well as property services. Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited was founded in 2000 and is based in Zhengzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company reported revenue of ¥6.6B in FY2025 versus ¥5.6B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥628M in FY2025, compounding −4.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
6.6B CNY
Latest YoY
−5.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−3.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+5.4%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+12.9%
Revenue +4.2%/yr
FY21 ¥5.6B
FY22 ¥7.4B
FY23 ¥5.7B
FY24 ¥7.0B
FY25 ¥6.6B
Net income −4.1%/yr
FY21 ¥743M
FY22 ¥140M
FY23 ¥828M
FY24 ¥880M
FY25 ¥628M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600020

Peer Group

Infrastructure Operations · 65 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +25% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 41% · Above median
Revenue growth 11% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.97× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.55× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.28× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 16.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 67 · sector 54
FUTURE 54 · sector 13
PAST 16 · sector 25
HEALTH 2 · sector 69
DIVIDEND 62 · sector 79

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

Is Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company (600020) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.75 versus a price of ¥3.79, about +25% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600020?
Our model-based fair value for Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company is ¥4.75 (as of Aug 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥3.79.
What is the quality score of 600020?
Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company (600020)?
Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600020?
The net profit margin of Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company is about 9.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company pay a dividend?
Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.06% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 6, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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