Hainan Yedao (Group) Co (600238) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 1.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 7, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −6.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 84% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.8700). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.73 – ¥31.86 · fair‑value band ¥0.5000 – ¥0.8700 · the ¥4.27 price screens above the ¥0.6800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.
Analysis
Hainan Yedao (Group) Co (600238) currently trades at ¥4.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.6800, implying the stock looks roughly 84.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hainan Yedao (Group) Co generated revenue of 427M CNY at a net margin of -5.0%. Revenue grew 125.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -21.0%. Net debt stands at 23.7M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.5000 (bear case) to ¥0.8700 (bull case); at ¥4.27, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at -84%, 600238 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥1.39) versus Asset-Based (¥0.1100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hainan Yedao (Group) Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sales of alcoholic products and beverages in China. It offers deer and turtle wine series; neptune wine series; Coco island Guowei series, Guitai Sauce wine series, Coco Island Sea series, Haikou Daqu, and original liquor; and other alcoholic beverages, such as Sanyechun, buckwheat wine, etc.
Full company description
Hainan Yedao (Group) Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sales of alcoholic products and beverages in China. It offers deer and turtle wine series; neptune wine series; Coco island Guowei series, Guitai Sauce wine series, Coco Island Sea series, Haikou Daqu, and original liquor; and other alcoholic beverages, such as Sanyechun, buckwheat wine, etc. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Haikou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hainan Yedao (Group) Co reported revenue of ¥371M in FY2025 versus ¥833M in FY2021, a compound −18.3%/yr. Reported net income was −¥28.9M in FY2025.
600238 screens 84% overvalued. Compare with Ambev S.A →
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ambev S.A ABEV | 14,120 ARS | 6,060 ARS | -57% |
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA 1ABI | €73.62 | €41.60 | -43% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FEMSAUBD | 222.91 MXN | 201.74 MXN | -9% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €77.24 | €65.06 | -16% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $135.72 | $177.43 | +31% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,125 | kr 607.30 | -46% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €71.20 | €72.67 | +2% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥53.38 | ¥60.28 | +13% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.58 | HK$6.05 | -8% |
| Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA | C$63.10 | C$74.42 | +18% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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