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Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co (600356) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 2.7B CNY

MH Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co 600356 · SHG
Price¥9.06
Fair Value¥10.20
Upside+12.6%
Quality60/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 8.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.28% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Narrow moat 41/100
Evidence: High Range ¥7.35 – ¥12.75 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price +14.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 13% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from ¥7.35 (bear) to ¥12.75 (bull), base ¥10.20. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 60/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥10.63 ¥5.55 Fair Value ¥10.20 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.55 – ¥10.63 · fair‑value band ¥7.35 – ¥12.75 · the ¥9.06 price screens below the ¥10.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

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Analysis

Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co (600356) currently trades at ¥9.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.20, implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co generated revenue of 2.8B CNY at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 2.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at 92.4M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥7.35 (bear case) to ¥12.75 (bull case); at ¥9.06, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 13%, 600356 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥5.65 ¥8.25 ¥12.20 80
Residual Income ¥6.66 ¥7.00 ¥7.45 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥7.85 ¥12.74 ¥18.67 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥5.64 ¥8.36 ¥12.59 38
Owner Earnings ¥8.55 ¥13.11 ¥20.19 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥7.85 ¥12.87 ¥19.55 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥8.72 ¥14.59 ¥21.72 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥7.30 ¥11.81 ¥16.75 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥6.75 ¥11.13 ¥17.51 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥7.55 ¥12.32 ¥19.19 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥6.65 ¥10.39 ¥15.33 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥4.08 ¥15.46 ¥20.93 54
Lynch FV ¥3.75 ¥5.36 ¥6.97 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥3.75 ¥5.36 ¥6.97 46
EPV ¥8.19 ¥9.27 ¥10.21 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥7.65 ¥10.20 ¥12.75 63
P/S Multiple ¥7.65 ¥10.20 ¥12.75 58
P/B Multiple ¥7.65 ¥10.20 ¥12.75 55
EV/EBIT ¥10.53 ¥13.61 ¥16.69 53
EV/EBITDA ¥11.37 ¥14.73 ¥18.09 54
EV/Revenue ¥9.30 ¥12.73 ¥16.16 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.15 ¥5.56 ¥8.30 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥5.65 ¥8.25 ¥12.20 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥7.85 ¥12.74 ¥18.67 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥6.66 ¥7.00 ¥7.45 76
ROIC Compounder ¥8.19 ¥10.04 ¥12.65 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥6.07 ¥8.67 ¥11.27 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥11.81) versus Earnings-Based (¥5.36). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.8B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.1%
Net margin 8.0%
Return on equity 8.4%
Free cash flow 125M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 11.5
More key figures
Operating margin 10.9%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.7400
Dividend yield 2.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +88.9%
Net debt 92.4M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 89
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 44
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co.,Ltd manufactures and sells tobacco, printing, packaging, pharma and cosmetics, and other paper products worldwide.

Full company description

Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co.,Ltd manufactures and sells tobacco, printing, packaging, pharma and cosmetics, and other paper products worldwide. It offers cigarette, rolling, filter, tipping and base, and inner liner papers; thin printing, heat transfer, and pharmaceutical leaflet papers; straw wrapping, toothpick wrapping, machine glazed, and food wrapping papers; oil and medical absorbing base papers; and melamine, straw, luxury wrapping/high-end gifts wrapping, and paper-yarn base papers. The company also offers mechanical gloss paper, and other production and household paper. The company was founded in 1952 and is based in Mudanjiang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co reported revenue of ¥2.8B in FY2025 versus ¥953M in FY2021, a compound +31.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥198M in FY2025, compounding −3.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.8B CNY
Latest YoY
+1.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.9%
Avg. growth/yr (28Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.0%
Revenue +31.2%/yr
FY21 ¥953M
FY22 ¥2.5B
FY23 ¥2.6B
FY24 ¥2.8B
FY25 ¥2.8B
Net income −3.8%/yr
FY21 ¥231M
FY22 ¥129M
FY23 ¥136M
FY24 ¥116M
FY25 ¥198M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) +3.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.3 pp

of which total revenue +6.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.4 pp

EBIT margin −3.3 pp
Tax rate +1.4 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600356

Peer Group

Paper & Paper Products · 111 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +13% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.07× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.99× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.96× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 3.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.42× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 50 · sector 20
FUTURE 11 · sector 9
PAST 34 · sector 12
HEALTH 97 · sector 91
DIVIDEND 46 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Klabin S.A KLBN11 R$17.58 R$3.89 -78%
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €23.45 €15.47 -34%
Suzano S.A SUZB3 R$41.70 R$138.01 +231%
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB kr 103.00 kr 49.40 -52%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥14.13 ¥17.29 +22%
Holmen AB HOLMB kr 305.40 kr 217.72 -29%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$7.55 HK$8.73 +16%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 1,078 CLP 1,269 CLP +18%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥22.05 ¥24.32 +10%
Billerud AB BILL kr 68.70 kr 48.60 -29%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co (600356) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥10.20 versus a price of ¥9.06, about +13% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600356?
Our model-based fair value for Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co is ¥10.20 (as of Aug 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥9.06.
What is the quality score of 600356?
Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co (600356)?
Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600356?
The net profit margin of Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co is about 8.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co pay a dividend?
Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.24% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 8, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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