EN DE

Henan Dayou Energy Co (600403) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · CN · Market cap 15.4B CNY

HD Henan Dayou Energy Co 600403 · SHG
Price¥6.46
Fair Value¥1.03
Upside-84.1%
Quality29/100
Watch Henan Dayou Energy Co for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Weak Growth
Loss-making · -51.6% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/10)
Narrow moat 8/100
Evidence: Low Range ¥0.7700 – ¥1.54 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026

From 1 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price +34.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 84% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥0.7700 to ¥1.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥11.15 ¥2.31 Fair Value ¥1.03 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.31 – ¥11.15 · fair‑value band ¥0.7700 – ¥1.54 · the ¥6.46 price screens above the ¥1.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Henan Dayou Energy Co (600403) currently trades at ¥6.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.03, implying the stock looks roughly 84.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Henan Dayou Energy Co generated revenue of 4.0B CNY at a net margin of -51.6%. Revenue declined 8.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -43.7%. Net debt stands at 1.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥0.7700 (bear case) to ¥1.54 (bull case); at ¥6.46, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -84%, 600403 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.7700 ¥1.03 ¥1.54 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.7700 ¥1.03 ¥1.54 50

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 4.0B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -8.1%
Net margin -51.6%
Return on equity -43.7%
Free cash flow −691M CNY FY2025
Operating margin -29.5%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.8700
EPS growth (YoY) +30.6%
Net debt 1.9B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 7
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 26
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 65
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Henan Dayou Energy Co., Ltd engages in raw coal mining activities in China. It is also involved in washing, processing, and wholesale of coal. The company offers long flame, coking, lean, washed, and gas coal for use in various industries, including chemical, power generation, industrial boilers, and power plants.

Full company description

Henan Dayou Energy Co., Ltd engages in raw coal mining activities in China. It is also involved in washing, processing, and wholesale of coal. The company offers long flame, coking, lean, washed, and gas coal for use in various industries, including chemical, power generation, industrial boilers, and power plants. It also provides coal transportation services; technical and consulting services; water intake, water supply, and heating services; and equipment and house leasing services, as well as engages in domestic and foreign trade activities. The company was formerly known as Nanjing Xinwang Telecom Tech Co.,Ltd and changed its name to Henan Dayou Energy Co., Ltd in 2010. Henan Dayou Energy Co., Ltd. was founded in 1998 and is based in Yima, China. Henan Dayou Energy Co., Ltd operates as a subsidiary of YiMa Coal Group Co.,Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Henan Dayou Energy Co reported revenue of ¥4.1B in FY2025 versus ¥7.9B in FY2021, a compound −15.1%/yr. Reported net income was −¥2.0B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
4.1B CNY
Latest YoY
−16.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−21.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−9.6%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+18.5%
Revenue −15.1%/yr
FY21 ¥7.9B
FY22 ¥8.6B
FY23 ¥5.8B
FY24 ¥4.9B
FY25 ¥4.1B
Net income
FY21 ¥1.3B
FY22 ¥1.6B
FY23 −¥481M
FY24 −¥1.1B
FY25 −¥2.0B

600403 screens 84% overvalued. Compare with China Shenhua Energy Company →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Henan Dayou Energy Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600403

Peer Group

Thermal Coal · 101 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −84% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets -5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -52% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -30% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -8% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.17× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.62× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.57× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 27
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 0 · sector 21
HEALTH 92 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).

Compare Henan Dayou Energy Co with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Energy stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is Henan Dayou Energy Co (600403) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.03 versus a price of ¥6.46, about −84% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600403?
Our model-based fair value for Henan Dayou Energy Co is ¥1.03 (as of Aug 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥6.46.
What is the quality score of 600403?
Henan Dayou Energy Co has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Henan Dayou Energy Co (600403)?
Henan Dayou Energy Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600403?
The net profit margin of Henan Dayou Energy Co is about -51.6%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track Henan Dayou Energy Co and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.