HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd ¥1.52, price ¥15.12, upside -90.0%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value ¥1.52 · Strongly overvalued (−90.0%)
✓Quality 70/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +3.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers(5/12)
!Moderate moat45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Watch HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.17 – ¥20.00 · fair‑value band ¥1.42 – ¥1.61 · the ¥15.12 price screens above the ¥1.52 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and operation of methanol products in China. It is involved in the coal chemical industry, emerging energy technology research and development, logistics, chemical, and wind power businesses.
Show more
HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and operation of methanol products in China. It is involved in the coal chemical industry, emerging energy technology research and development, logistics, chemical, and wind power businesses. The company was formerly known as Changzhou Chemical Industry Co., Ltd and changed its name HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co.,Ltd in May 2008. The company was founded in 1994 and is based in Shijiazhuang, China. HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co.,Ltd operates as a subsidiary of Hebei Expressway Group Limited.
Stock analysis
HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722) currently trades at ¥15.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.52, implying the stock looks roughly 895.0% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥1.73 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the ¥15.12 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.6000, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.42 (bear) to ¥1.61 (bull), the price of ¥15.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd reported revenue of 470M CNY in FY2025 versus 568M CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 47.9M CNY in FY2025, compounding −0.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 10.3B CNY (≈ $1.5B) · P/E ratio 216.0 · P/S ratio 22.0 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0700 · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% · Operating margin 18.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 161% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −90%, 600722 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.42Fair Value ¥1.52Bull ¥1.61
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0520 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.4% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.9% vs −9.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.8%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+52.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +50.2% a year for the price.
Compare HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 347 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−89.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.8% · Above median
Return on assets3.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)18.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)216.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B8.24× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)22.68× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF19.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 2
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 33
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)72· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600722
Frequently asked questions
Is HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.52 versus a price of ¥15.12, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600722?
Our model-based fair value for HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd is ¥1.52 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥15.12.
What is the quality score of 600722?
HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.52 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.42, optimistic scenario ¥1.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.52, about −90% upside versus a price of ¥15.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.42, optimistic scenario ¥1.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 454M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +52.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600722 use?
Our models discount HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd that is +52.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd grew +3.1 % a year. The price currently implies +52.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (+52.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.78 %: that much free cash flow HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd it is ¥1.52 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ¥15.12. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 600722 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥15.12, fair value ¥1.52, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600722?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥15.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.52). For HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd the two are ¥13.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd worth?
The market values HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd at about 10.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥15.12; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600722?
Our models span a range for HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.42, base ¥1.52, optimistic ¥1.61 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ¥15.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600722?
HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 216.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 8.2, P/S 22.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
Balance-sheet figures for HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 6.8%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600722 from its 52-week high?
HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd trades at ¥15.12, about 24% below its 52-week high of ¥20.00 and 161% above the low of ¥5.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Hengli Petrochemical Co, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ¥15.12, calculated fair value ¥1.52 (−90%), Quality Score 70/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600722 calculated?
We run HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥15.12. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.52, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.61). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (¥1.42 to ¥1.61), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
The market capitalisation of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd is 10.3B CNY (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd is 22.0 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
Earnings per share at HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd are ¥0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 216.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
The net margin of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd is 10.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
The operating margin of HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd is 18.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
Revenue at HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd is growing −13.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722)?
Earnings per share at HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd are growing −2.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd (600722) hold?
HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.1B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts HeBei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
