AVIC Heavy Machinery Co (600765) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 20.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 9, 2026, revised from ¥7.74 to ¥12.05 (+55.6%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +5.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 10% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (¥8.45 to ¥15.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from ¥8.45 (bear) to ¥15.64 (bull), base ¥12.05. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 36/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.08 – ¥35.78 · fair‑value band ¥8.45 – ¥15.64 · the ¥13.44 price screens above the ¥12.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
Analysis
AVIC Heavy Machinery Co (600765) currently trades at ¥13.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.05, implying the stock looks roughly 10.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, AVIC Heavy Machinery Co generated revenue of 10.3B CNY at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue grew 6.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at 2.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥8.45 (bear case) to ¥15.64 (bull case); at ¥13.44, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -10%, 600765 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥10.17) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.29). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AVIC Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in forging, casting, hydraulic environmental control and other business in China.
Full company description
AVIC Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in forging, casting, hydraulic environmental control and other business in China. The company is involved in the production of die, free, isothermal, and ring forging, which consist of aircraft beams; frames; joints; hangings; landing gear and other structural parts; aircraft engines and gas turbine discs; rotating parts, such as discs and shafts; and still parts such as receivers and mounting edges; missile engine and rocket engine forgings; and other civilian forgings for aviation, and other military and civilian uses. Its forging products are primarily used in aviation, aerospace, ships, weapons, electric power, petrochemical, railway, automobile, mining, construction machinery, and other fields. It is also involved in the research, development, and production of aerospace castings, investment in precision casting, metal mold casting, centrifugal casting, etc.; and alloy casting, such as high-temperature alloys, aluminum alloys, titanium alloys, magnesium alloys, etc.; and military and civilian high-pressure piston pump products. In addition, the company manufactures aviation environmental control accessories and civil heat exchangers, including heat exchangers, high-speed rotating machinery, lubricating oil tanks, cooling devices, and high-temperature insulation components for hydraulic systems and lubrication systems used in engineering machinery, air compressors, wind power, medical treatment, and high-speed rail industries. It also exports its products to Europe, the Americas, Oceania, and the Asia-Pacific region. AVIC Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Guiyang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AVIC Heavy Machinery Co reported revenue of ¥10.1B in FY2025 versus ¥8.8B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥609M in FY2025, compounding −9.1%/yr from FY2021.
600765 screens 10% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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