Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd (601658) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · CN · Market cap 605B CNY (≈ $90.2B) · ISIN CNE100003PZ4

What is Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd really worth?

PS Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd 601658 · SHG

Price¥5.42

Fair Value¥9.21

Upside+70.0%

Quality43/100

Below-average quality, trading 41% below our fair value of ¥9.21.

As of Sep 5, 2026, the fair value of Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd is ¥9.21 per share against a price of ¥5.42, so the fair value sits 70% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +8.5 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 27.2% net margin

✓generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)

!Moderate moat 63/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·4.02% dividend yield

Evidence: Low Range ¥6.91 – ¥11.52

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +9.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥6.91). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.68 – ¥6.39 · fair‑value band ¥6.91 – ¥11.52 · the ¥5.42 price screens below the ¥9.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd (601658) currently trades at ¥5.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.21, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥11.34 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥5.42 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥6.26, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd generated revenue of 323B CNY at a net margin of 27.2%. Revenue declined 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 390B CNY. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥6.91 (bear case) to ¥11.52 (bull case); at ¥5.42, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 70%, 601658 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.3493 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Residual Income best evidence ¥8.70 ¥9.50 ¥12.98 76

DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.50 ¥6.26 ¥7.96 66

Gordon GGM ¥3.50 ¥7.64 ¥12.85 65

All 6 models by family

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM ¥3.50 ¥7.64 ¥12.85 65

DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.50 ¥6.26 ¥7.96 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple ¥8.50 ¥11.34 ¥14.17 63

P/B Multiple ¥10.58 ¥14.11 ¥17.64 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) ¥5.04 ¥6.75 ¥10.08 51

Economic Profit

Residual Income best evidence ¥8.70 ¥9.50 ¥12.98 76

Widest divergence: Multiples (¥11.34) versus Dividend Discount (¥6.26). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 6.9 as of Jul 13, 2026

P/S ratio 1.70 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) ¥0.7300 price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.9

Dividend yield 4.0% payout 29.9%

Net margin 24.6% FY2025

Return on equity 8.2% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% avg 5y

Operating margin 35.2% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) 323B CNY TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) −0.3% 3y avg +5.8%

EPS growth (YoY) −16.7%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow 90.6B CNY FY2025

Net cash 390B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 33

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 50

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 83

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 24

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 57

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 95

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 40

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 30

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 0

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services for retail and corporate customers in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services for retail and corporate customers in the People's Republic of China. It offers demand, time, personal call, time/demand optional, call, negotiated, foreign currency exchange deposit; passbooks and certificate of deposits; credit, mortgage, government, farmer, and merchant express loan; business easy mix, agriculture aid plus, domestic remittance and exchange, and payment and collection agency; cross-border remittance, personal exchange settlement and sale, and foreign currency exchange services; personal housing, auto, consumer, and personal education loans; and bank cards, as well as online banking services. The company also provides pledge, syndicated, land reserve, town rebuild, commercial property mortgage, real estate development, fixed asset, project, and consignment loans. In addition, it offers check, promissory notes, bank and commercial draft, remittance, consignment collection, and collection with acceptance settlement services; accounts management, payments and collection, liquidity, investment and financing, information management, fund monitoring, and bank-enterprise direct link services; draft acceptance and discounting, draft manager, and electronic commercial draft services; foreign exchange deposit, foreign exchange settlement, sale, and conversion, settlement, and trade finance; custody services; and bill rediscount, interbank financing, investment, and market trading services. It operates through directly operated outlets and agency outlets. The company was founded in 2007 and is based in Beijing, China. Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Post Group Corporation Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd reported revenue of 355B CNY in FY2025 versus 272B CNY in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was 87.4B CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 82/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

355B CNY

Latest YoY

+10.7%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+5.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+8.5%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+8.6%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+3.5% · in CNY

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share−0.5%

Dividend yield4.0%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −0.5% vs 10Y 2.8%, flattening

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.74.8% (2020) → 27.7% (2025) · falling

Worst earnings drop38% (2015) · in CNY

Revenue +6.8%/yr

FY21 272B CNY

FY22 300B CNY

FY23 317B CNY

FY24 321B CNY

FY25 355B CNY

Net income +3.5%/yr

FY21 76.2B CNY

FY22 85.2B CNY

FY23 86.3B CNY

FY24 86.5B CNY

FY25 87.4B CNY

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.9 % p.a.

Revenue per share +2.8 %

of which total revenue +8.1 % · buybacks/dilution −5.0 %

EBIT margin −2.9 %

Tax rate +0.6 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) +4.5 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥9.21 +41%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601658

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1070 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside +70% · Top 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Below median

Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) 27% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 35% · Below median

Revenue growth 0% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.60× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 1.88× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than median

PEG 0.83× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 yearsless than minus 40 % per year

Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+8.5 % p.a.

Sector median revenue growth+8.1 %

FCF yield on price13.95 %

Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.7 %

The price sits beyond what a cash-flow model can represent: the valuation rests on more than today's free cash flow. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE100 · sector 32

FUTURE0 · sector 45

PAST33 · sector 41

HEALTH0 · sector 85

DIVIDEND80 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05	75.65 SGD	40.48 SGD	−46%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968	HK$47.96	HK$76.51	+60%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.78	€5.66	−17%
HDFC Bank Limited HDB	$23.18	$24.12	+4%
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€104.54	€144.64	+38%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€84.71	€77.62	−8%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$10.74	$9.69	−10%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,423	₹835.21	−41%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39	31.07 SGD	19.80 SGD	−36%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK	€13.52	€8.85	−35%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd (601658) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.21 versus a price of ¥5.42, about +70% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 601658?

Our model-based fair value for Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd is ¥9.21 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.42.

What is the quality score of 601658?

Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd (601658)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥9.21 (as of Sep 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.91, optimistic scenario ¥11.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at ¥9.21, about +70% upside versus a price of ¥5.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.91, optimistic scenario ¥11.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd (601658)?

Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 323B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 601658?

The net profit margin of Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd is about 27.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 27.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd pay a dividend?

Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).

What growth is priced into Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd (601658)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.7 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.5 % per year. As of Sep 5, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601658 use?

Our models discount Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

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