Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.
XPBRA · MCStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.1162 – €8.26 · fair‑value band €1.66 – €3.01 · the €8.01 price screens above the €2.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Company profile
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies.
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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. Its Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, acquisition, and export of crude oil; trading of oil products; and production of fertilizers, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Low Carbon Energies segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of liquefied natural gas; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; renewable energy business; low carbon business; and natural gas processing business, as well as production of biodiesel and its co-products. It also engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. In addition, the company engages in research, development, production, transportation, distribution, and trading of energy. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA) currently trades at €8.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.21, implying the stock looks roughly 262.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €16.44 per share, and 20 of the 22 models we run sit above the €8.01 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.94, and 2 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €1.66 (bear) to €3.01 (bull), the price of €8.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. reported revenue of R$89.2B in FY2025 versus R$84.0B in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was R$19.6B in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €103B · P/E ratio 5.1 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) €1.38 · Net margin 22.0% · Return on equity 25.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.2% · Operating margin 32.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −72%, XPBRA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 22 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
XPBRA screens 262% overvalued. Compare with Exxon Mobil Corporation →
Compare Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Valuation of the Spain market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $169.32 | $88.98 | −47% |
| Chevron Corporation CVX | $217.77 | $90.66 | −58% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.11 | ¥15.05 | +35% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €41.42 | €39.73 | −4% |
| TotalEnergies SE TOTB | €78.69 | €69.11 | −12% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.21 | ¥3.74 | −28% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | kr 421.20 | kr 341.94 | −19% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | $68.95 | $70.17 | +2% |
| Eni S.p.A E | $56.05 | $84.72 | +51% |
| Imperial Oil Limited IMO | $130.30 | $94.61 | −27% |
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Key figures of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.
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