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Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Energy · ES · ISIN BRPETRACNPR6

PB Broad data Sep 17, 2026

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.

XPBRA · MC

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value €2.21 · Strongly overvalued (−72%)
!Quality 61/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −10.5 %/yr)
Highly profitable · 21.6% net margin (TTM)
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Wide moat 80/100
!Weak on future: 2 out of 100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€8.26 €0.1162 Fair Value €2.21 May 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €0.1162 – €8.26 · fair‑value band €1.66 – €3.01 · the €8.01 price screens above the €2.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.

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Company profile

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies.

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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. Its Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, acquisition, and export of crude oil; trading of oil products; and production of fertilizers, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Low Carbon Energies segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of liquefied natural gas; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; renewable energy business; low carbon business; and natural gas processing business, as well as production of biodiesel and its co-products. It also engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. In addition, the company engages in research, development, production, transportation, distribution, and trading of energy. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

Stock analysis

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA) currently trades at €8.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.21, implying the stock looks roughly 262.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €16.44 per share, and 20 of the 22 models we run sit above the €8.01 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.94, and 2 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €1.66 (bear) to €3.01 (bull), the price of €8.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. reported revenue of R$89.2B in FY2025 versus R$84.0B in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was R$19.6B in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €103B · P/E ratio 5.1 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) €1.38 · Net margin 22.0% · Return on equity 25.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.2% · Operating margin 32.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −72%, XPBRA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €1.66 Fair Value €2.21 Bull €3.01
Model Each model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence Evidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €11.07 €15.97 €25.03 75
Growth DCF €11.65 €16.40 €24.53 74
Owner Earnings €10.12 €14.64 €23.00 72
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €11.07 €15.97 €25.03 75
Owner Earnings €10.12 €14.64 €23.00 72
5Y Revenue Exit €6.69 €9.42 €13.36 69
5Y EBITDA Exit €11.29 €17.39 €25.46 71
5Y P/E Exit €11.83 €18.31 €26.06 67
10Y Revenue Exit €8.16 €10.35 €12.60 64
10Y EBITDA Exit €11.11 €15.28 €19.71 66
10Y P/E Exit €11.43 €15.85 €20.06 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €10.36 €12.66 €14.24 62
EPV €14.82 €17.52 €19.88 70
Multiples
P/E Multiple €16.00 €21.33 €26.66 61
P/S Multiple €6.23 €8.30 €10.38 56
P/B Multiple €7.95 €10.60 €13.25 53
EV/EBIT €14.77 €20.15 €25.54 64
EV/EBITDA €13.59 €18.59 €23.58 66
EV/Revenue €4.43 €6.92 €9.41 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €2.94 €3.94 €5.89 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €11.65 €16.40 €24.53 74
Rev-Margin DCF €6.69 €9.71 €13.52 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income €10.12 €13.73 €77.69 60
ROIC Compounder €14.82 €18.21 €21.62 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €11.51 €16.44 €21.37 63

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83

Profitability 59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 52
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 99
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality Growth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL What the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 31%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes This turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

XPBRA screens 262% overvalued. Compare with Exxon Mobil Corporation →

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Peer GroupHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −74% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 26% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 32% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 42.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.32× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.52× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.23× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 7.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 0.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 4.05× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)2 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)84 · sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 73

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $169.32 $88.98 −47%
Chevron Corporation CVX $217.77 $90.66 −58%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥11.11 ¥15.05 +35%
Shell plc SHELL €41.42 €39.73 −4%
TotalEnergies SE TOTB €78.69 €69.11 −12%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.21 ¥3.74 −28%
Equinor ASA EQNR kr 421.20 kr 341.94 −19%
Suncor Energy Inc SU $68.95 $70.17 +2%
Eni S.p.A E $56.05 $84.72 +51%
Imperial Oil Limited IMO $130.30 $94.61 −27%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XPBRA

Frequently asked questions

Is Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.21 versus a price of €8.01, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XPBRA?
Our model-based fair value for Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is €2.21 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €8.01.
What is the quality score of XPBRA?
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.21 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.66, optimistic scenario €3.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.21, about −72% upside versus a price of €8.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €1.66, optimistic scenario €3.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -6.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XPBRA use?
Our models discount Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. that is -6.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. grew +1.5 % a year. The price currently implies -6.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (-6.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.01 %: that much free cash flow Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. it is €2.21 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of €8.01. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, XPBRA trades above its calculated fair value: price €8.01, fair value €2.21, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPBRA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€8.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.21). For Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. the two are €5.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. worth?
The market values Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. at about €103B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is €8.01; our models calculate a fair value of €2.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPBRA?
Our models span a range for Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.: cautious scenario €1.66, base €2.21, optimistic €3.01 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price €8.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XPBRA?
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €2.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.1, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 0.7.
What is the PEG ratio of XPBRA?
The PEG ratio of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is 4.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 25.6%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XPBRA from its 52-week high?
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. trades at €8.01, about 1% below its 52-week high of €8.08 and 86% above the low of €4.30 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, Shell plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price €8.01, calculated fair value €2.21 (−72%), Quality Score 61/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPBRA calculated?
We run Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €2.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was €8.01. Our model-based fair value is €2.21, about −72% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€3.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€1.66 to €3.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
The market capitalisation of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is €103B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is 1.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
Earnings per share at Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. are €1.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
The net margin of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is 22.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is 25.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is 18.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
The operating margin of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is 32.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
Revenue at Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is growing +0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
Earnings per share at Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. are growing −7.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA) carry?
The net debt of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is €20.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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